Are these Olympic Games going to reach 100 medal-winning nations for the first time? (88/100)

[Nicky Pryde 42]

The last Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo beat the record of the most medal-winning nations during the event, with 93 nations who win at least the Bronze. There was 206 nations and 339 events (for a total of 1080 medals).

 

In Paris, we have still 206 nations, but with less events (329). However, more countries has chances to win a medals.

 

So, do you think Paris will beat this record and, why not, surpass the 100 nations mark for the first time ?

 

As a numbers lover, that will be the point I'll check during this Olympiades in my own country, So i'll be glad to share this with you !

 

 

To check if it's possible, I made stats about each countries during the last 5 olympiads (from Athens to Tokyo), and I separate the 206 nations in 8 categories. (please note : I just check that, I don't know which athletes has the best chances in each sports).

 

 

 

 

Group 1 (26)

 

Countries that has reached at least 5 medals in each Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo

 

For these countries, I'm not afraid for them, I think they'll reach their minimal quota this year.

 

Concerned : Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, China, Croatia, Cuba, Czechia, Denmark, France, Germany, UK, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine and USA

 

 

 

Group 2 (14)

 

Countries that has reached at least 5 medals 50% or more of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo

 

I think they'll also gain at least one medal this year, but be careful !

 

Concerned : Bulgaria, Colombia, Ethiopia, Georgia, Iran, North Korea, Norway, Romania, South Africa, Switzerland, Taipei, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan

 

 

 

Group 3 (15)

 

Countries that has reached at least 5 medals in one of the 3 last Olympiades (Tokyo, Rio or London)

 

They are in a good dynamism, so they have really good chances.

Moreover for some of them, the fact that they are not in group 1 or 2 can be explained by geopolitical events.

 

Concerned : Austria, Belgium, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Serbia, Slovenia

 

 

 

 

Group 4 (8)

 

Countries that won at least 1 medal in each of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo

 

they are still here, but they are not immune to poor performance !

From there, we will take a look on these countries.

 

Concerned : Argentina, Bahamas, Estonia, Finland, Morocco, Portugal, Slovakia, Venezuela

 

 

 

 

Group 5 (29)

 

Countries that won at least 1 medal in at least 2 of their participations in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo

 

We will clearly not bet on them, but they have already the experience of the win !

In this category, we can also cut them in 2 parts : the countries who has won a medal in Tokyo and the other.

 

Concerned who won a Medal in Tokyo (20) : Armenia, Bahrain, Botswana, Ecuador, Fiji, Granada, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Moldova, Nigeria, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Uganda

 

Else (9): Afghanistan, Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Singapore, Tajikistan, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, Vietnam

 

 

 

 

Group 6 (23)

 

Countries that won at least 1 medal only one time in Olympic Games from Athens to Tokyo

 

They already won so we know they are able, but it'll be still difficult for them

 

Concerned who won a Medal in Tokyo or Rio (10) : Bermuda, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Namibia, Niger, North Macedonia, San Marino, Turkmenistan

 

Else (13): Cyprus, Gabon, Guatemala, Iceland, Mauritius, Montenegro, Panama, Samoa, Sudan, Togo, Eritrea, Paraguay, Zimbabwe

 

 

 

 

Group 7 (91)

 

Countries that never won a medal in the last 5 Olympiads

 

I think the 100 bar can be reach with these countries. Maybe some surprises ? I hope for them !

 

 

 

Group Special (3)

 

Countries that is too difficult to estimate for them

 

I include here AIN and Refugees, but also Kosovo, a too young country who reach at least 1 medal in the last 2 Olympiads, but we don't really know.

 

 

 

 

So, if we go on the fact that groups 1,2,3 and 4 will win at least on medal for each, we have a base of 63 nations. So we hope there will be 37 other nations in the list !

 

What do you think about that ? That was clear for you (sorry, english is not my mother tongue ^^) ? Do you think that, with this analyse, the 100 mark can be reach ?

 

(Also in the topic, i'll take the count for each Group during these Olympic Games)

 

Thanks for reading !

 

 

 

Current results

 

Events : 223

 

Groupe 1 : 26/26

Groupe 2 : 14/14

Groupe 3 : 15/15

Groupe 4 : 4/8

Groupe 5 : 17/29

Groupe 6 : 3/23

Groupe 7 : 6/91

Special : 3/3

 

Total : 88/100

 

 

 

 

 

Last chances per countries :

 

Spoiler

Nigeria (Group 5)
-> Athletism Long Jump W

-> Athletism 100m Hurdles W

-> Basket-Ball W

-> Canoe-Kayak C1 200 W

-> Canoe-Kayak C2 500 W

-> Weightlifting -53kg W

-> Wrestling -57kg W

-> Wrestling -62kg W

-> Wrestling -68kg W
-> Wrestling -76kg W

 

 

 

Qatar (Group 5)

-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M

-> Athletism High Jump M

-> Beach-Volley M-> Taekwendoo -102kg M

 

 

 

Puerto Rico (Group 5)
-> Athletism 100m Hurdles W

-> Wrestling -65kg M

-> Wrestling -125kg M

 

 

 

Finland (Group 4)

-> Athletism Hammer Throw W

-> Athletism Pole Vault W
-> Athletism JavelinThrow W

-> Sailing Mixed Multihull
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -92kg

 

 

 

Venezuela (Group 4)

-> Athletism Pole Vault W

-> Weightlifting -49kg W

-> Weightlifting -59kg W

 

 

 

 Bahamas (Group 4)

-> Athletism High Jump M

-> Athletism Javelin Throw W

-> Athletism 100m Hurdles W

 

 

 

Ivory Coast (Group 6)

-> Athletism 200m W

-> Athletism 200m M

-> Taekwendoo -67kg W

-> Taekwendoo +80kg M

 

 

 

Botswana (Group 5)
-> Athletism 200m M

-> Athletism 400m M

-> Athletism 800m M

 

 

 

Latvia (Groupe 5)

-> Athletism Javelin Throw M

-> Athletism Javelin Throw W

-> Basketball 3x3 M

-> Beach-Volley W

 

 

 

Burkina Faso (Group 6)

-> Athletism Long Jump W
-> Athletism Triple Jump M

 

 

 

Trinidad and Tobago (Group 5)

-> Athletism 400m M

-> Athletism JavelinThrow W
-> Track Cycling Sprint M

 

 

Estonia (Group 4)
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M
-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -130kg

 

Samoa (Group 6)
-> Athletism Discuss Throw M

 

 

 

Liberia (Group 7)

-> Athletism 200m M

 

 

Barbados (Group 7)
-> Athletism 400m w

 

 

British Virgin Islands (Group 7)
-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M

 

 

 

Albania (Group 7)

-> Wrestling -57kg M

 

 

 

San Marino (Group 6)
-> Wrestling -68kg M

 

 

Guinea Bissau (Group 7)
-> Wrestling -74kg M

 

 

 

Syrie (Group 5)

-> Weightlifting +102kg M

 

 

 

 Irak (Group 7)
-> Weightlifting +102kg M

 

 

 

Costa Rica (Group 7)

-> Athletism 400m Hurdles M

-> Surfing M

 

 

 

 Indonesia (Group 5)

-> Weightlifting -61kg M

 

 

 

Honduras (Group 7)

-> Wrestling Greco-Roman -92kg

 

 

 

Andorra (Group 7)
-> Kayak Cross W

 

Saint Vincent and Grenadines (Group 7)
-> Athletism 800m W

 

Edited August 9, 2024 by Nicky Pryde

[JoshMartini007 2,765]

Nice analysis.

 

I don't think we'll make triple digits this time. Around 50 nations are only here because of tripartite and universality. Add in nations which officially qualified by barely making the cut or winning weak continental quotas and we are left with a narrow path to 100.

 

It's possible, but we'll need the small nations to convert their 1 or 2 chance they have.

[Nicky Pryde 42]

After this first day of competition, in 13 events we have only 20 countries with at least one medal. That's not enough : in Tokyo, this nulber was already at 28 ! (after only 11 events)

 

But if we take the same events than today, this number is at 25, so that's from the events who are not open to many countries (like relays in swimming). So, that's not already finish !

 

In details, groupe 1 is already at 50% countries with at least 1 medal, and 2 countries in groupe 5 (Fidji and Tunisia) have also been rewarded (even if it was waited for Fidji)

 

For the next day : there was 40 nations with a medail in the second day of Tokyo, so I hope we will catch up tomorrow !

[Nicky Pryde 42]

31th July at 1 pm, we are at 61 events and 44 countries with at least 1 medal. That's seems not enough, but that's not finish yet !

 

Only 5 countries from groupe 1 haven't any medal : (netherlands just leave this list)

 

In groupes 2 and 3 :

 

Essentially athletic countries, so i don't worry about them.

 

In the other side, 5 countries from groupes 5/6/7/8 have their medal : (special mention for Guatelama, the only country from groupe 6 here !)

 

 

This afternoon, we will support :

 

 

BMX m/w :  

 

Shooting trap w :

 

Judo m/w :

 

Canoe w :

 

Gymnastic m :

 

Fencing m :

 

Swimming :

Edited July 31, 2024 by Nicky Pryde

[Grassmarket 4,028]

  Into the women’s canoe slalom finals…

 

. Gold already.

Edited July 31, 2024 by Grassmarket

[Roamingrover86 862]

6 hours ago, Nicky Pryde said:

Judo m/w :

 With their first medal in Judo 90kg(M) 

 

 With their first medal in Judo 70kg(W) 

Another two ticked off.

Edited July 31, 2024 by Roamingrover86

[Nicky Pryde 42]

9 minutes ago, Roamingrover86 said:

 With their first medal in Judo 90kg(M) 

 

 With their first medal in Judo 70kg(W) 

Another two ticked off.

 

also who win their first Medal in BMX Park (M)

 

 

The total is now at 47. Iran can win the Bronze in Fencing and Estonia in 200m Butterfly tonight.

Edited July 31, 2024 by Nicky Pryde

[Nicky Pryde 42]

So we finish this day with 47 nations. In Tokyo after 72 events, we were already at 55, so that's not enough. Pretty sad for Andorra, though...

 

 

tomorrow morning, we can hope medals for :

 

Athletism 20km Race Walk M :

 

Athletism 20km Race Walk W :

 

Shooting 50m Rifle 3 Positions M :

 

Rowing Double Sculls W :

[Grassmarket 4,028]

5 minutes ago, Nicky Pryde said:

So we finish this day with 47 nations. In Tokyo after 72 events, we were already at 55, so that's not enough. Pretty sad for Andorra, though...

 

 

tomorrow morning, we can hope medals for :

 

Athletism 20km Race Walk M :

 

Athletism 20km Race Walk W :

 

Shooting 50m Rifle 3 Positions M :

 

Rowing Double Sculls W :

Andorra get another chance in the Kayak Cross

[Nicky Pryde 42]

Ecuador is the only new country this morning. It's not sufficient, but it's also the 5th country from the group 5 to win a medal !

 

A bit sad for Peru who was to close so win their first medal since 1992. Andorra yesterday, Peru today, who will be the next one ?

 

 

 

This afternoon, we support :

 

 

Sailing Skiff M :

Sailing Skiff W :

 

Gym Art All-Around W :

 

Kayak Single M :

 

Judo -100kg M :

Judo -78kg W :

 

Swimming 200m Butterfly W :

Swimming 200m Breastroke W :

Edited August 1, 2024 by Nicky Pryde