India at Asian Games 2022

[nitinsanker 202]

Asian games – India’s likely performance. Part 1 of 5

                                           *by Nitin Sanker*

 

*quick intro*  Indias performance in the last few  games , Indias position has been mostly 8^th ( 1994, 2006 , 2014, 2018) with a 6^th in 2010 and a 9^th in 2002 and a 7^th in 1998. In terms of medals we have been getting between 10-16 gold medals and a total of 30-70 medals. Best performance in terms of medals has been in 2018 ( 16 Gold and total 70 medals ). So how are we going to do this time.

First let me say this is a gargantuan squad really big 653 in 35 sports. So it will take some time to cover all the sports. I am going in alphabetical order.

 

*Aquatics -23*  We have been getting an occasional medal in swimming ( shout out to the great Khazan singh tokas ) but this time with the Asian countries improving their standard we are unlikely to take a medal in my opinion, possibly at best  a couple of final performances by srihari or sajan or virdhawal . last edition 0   This edition : *Likely Gold – 0 , likely medals-0*

 

*Atheletics-68 entries* - this sport always gives us a huge number of medals at the Asian games. India has been improving in athletics, but so has japan , china and the African stable of runners imported by Bahrain and Qatar. 

 

We are having 7 asia leading times: the three 4*400 relays , mens : javelin , triple , long jump and  shot. We are having close competitors in each of these events , so no event is  a lock for us.  But equally we are having 2^nd or third leading performers in all the women running events – 200, 400, 800, 1500, 3000Sc, 5000, 100mH, 400mH also womens Long jump, heptathalon. Also in mens 800,1500, deca, 3000Sc. Also  long shots  in the racewalking cluster , mens hJ , mens400, womens  :discus, jav and shotputt and 4*100.

 

So in 2018 asians  we had our very best performance ever in athletics _> 8-9-3. This edition *likely 5-12 Gold and 17-25 medals overall ,so possibly shade below the very best we have had in gold but I feel in the total medals in athletics will be the best ever.  We really have athletes in around 25 events who will be competitive.

 

*Badminton-19* - Badminton has been a very trying sport for us at  the AGs , we have never won a gold and have only won 3 medals since 1994 ( 7 editions). This time though our best hope is  sat-chi in mens doubles , mens team ( we are the  Thomas cup champs) and mens singles ( prannoy). In 2018  we had  our best ever performance with 0-1-1 (saina and Sindhu). But I am going to put this time *likely medal tally at 0-2 gold and likely 1-3 total medals

 

*Basketball-20* No chance unless a meteor strikes the courts and they decide  to settle the medals with friendly game of cricket. *Likely 0-0-0*

 

[nitinsanker 202]

*Asian games – India’s likely performance. Part 2 of 5*

                                           *by Nitin Sanker*

 

Lets go into the continuing list of sports , starting with the two that we have done very well in this year

*Archery  -16*  With a dominant performance in compound archery at the world championship I feel despite archery being a fickle sport we should dominant in compound 5 events especially womens team , womens individual and  mixed. But with significant chances in mens as well . In recurve we are very unlikely to get a gold , with possible medals in only mens and womens teams : *Likely Gold – 2-5 , likely medals-5-7*. But  this will be our best performance3 ever

 

*Boxing -13* -India will  do very well in boxing , we did win the womens world championship this year  and do well in mens. The womens team is completely *wow* according to me, with a possible medal from every single member , but likely gold is obviously Nikhat , Lovlina but I alsoabsoulutely love arundhati , praveen and Preeti  , all can get  gold medals with some luck. I do not think that much of Jaisimine but she has a fantastic reach. In men with Uzbeks and Kazaks currently dominating mens boxing, chance of gold is less but medal hopes  cukd any of the seven but the draw would play a big part. Again probably our best performance ever in boxing with *Likely Gold – 2-4 , likely medals-5-10*.

 

*Canoeing- 17* We have never medalled in canoeing. We do have some green shoots here and maybe just one medal in the sprint events *likely gold -0 , 0-1 medals*

 

*Cricket-30* we are the favourite’s to win both men and definitely womens team. But it is B team in mens so I will say *likely  Gold-1-2 , likely medals-2*

 

*Cycling -13* again a sport in recent times at least have never won a medal. This time this team is young and has done well internationally in the youth circuit. Esow and ronaldo may be the best bet for a medal in sprint and keiren events. I hope we can break through here. *likely Gold-0 , medals 0-2*

 

*Equestrian-10* , 2018 was a breakthrough double silver thanks to foaud mirza  but this time  foaud is not there and so  go our medal hopes. I am still clinging on to hope But likely *Gold-0 , Medals 0-1*

 

*Fencing-9* , Maybe the year we break through and finally win a medal in fencing , if Bhavani devi wins in sabre individual then hope to see more chennaites in Lames suits. *Likely Gold -0, medals 0-1*

[nitinsanker 202]

*Asian games – India’s likely performance. Part 3 of 5*

                                           *by Nitin Sanker*

 

Lets go through the remaining  list of sports

 

*Hockey   -36*   Hockey  performance has been a bit of curates  egg for us at the  AG , we often do not do as much as I believe we can. But the current hockey teams are more steady. We are the highest ranked hockey teams in  Asia in both mens  and  womens teams. So last time in 2018 we got 0-1-1. This time I believe our performance would  be *Gold 1-2, medals 2*

 

*Football(44), Judo(4), Handball (16),Gymnastics(1),Pentathalon(1)* – we have never medaled in handball , football ( in recent games), Judo( in recent games), Pentathlon( never), Gymnastics has been ruined by its federation ( when we were improving) so *no medals likely in these sports*

 

*Golf-7* - really we have very little  chances if you look at ranking but this is one sport in which  the top golfers skip the asian games . Also aditi ashok has been in her best form of her life . so long shot chances in mens team , women teams and aditi  may transalate to one medal. Likely *Gold-0, Medal 0-1*

 

*Kabaddi-24* when you here the sport o kabaddi is going to be played you would assume that India would both medals in womens and mens team. Well in 2018 AG we lost both titles to Iran. So how will we do this time I would like to believe 2018 is an aberration and we will win both Gold medals at stake but still to hedge my bets I will say *Gold-1-2, Medals-2*

 

*Mind sports- 43* - Mind sports includes a series of  E, card and board games. Out of the 5 sports obviously we do not have any expertise in Go and Xiangqi. But then Chess , Bridge and Esports are sports we can medal in , we have been doing well in chess so in all four eventsR ( Mens  Rapid ( Vidit , Arjun ) , Womens Rapid ( humpy , harika ) and mens and womens teams playing classical we  will have gold medal chances but Chinese are also  dominant in these events so I believe at least 1 Gold  is  possible for India. In bridge ( 3 events ) at the world level we have medalled so again I believe 1 Gold is possible . In Esports  far east nations ( korea , Japan) are really good but maybe  medal is possible . Likely *Gold 1-3, medals 5-8*

 

*Roller skating-14* - again not a usual sport at the asian games , but it has been there earlier and we have won medals as well. But this time the focus is more on the speed sections rather artistic. I believe we can medal but gold very unlikely *Gold-0, medals 1-2*

 

 

[nitinsanker 202]

*Asian games – India’s likely performance. Part 4 of 5*

                                           *by Nitin Sanker*

This part will complete all the sports , and tomorrow part 5 of 5 will summarize ,predict and give the final expected counts. Do give some love to this post and tomorrow the amazing conclusion

 

*Martial arts – wushu , Kurash and ju jitsu   -28*   Comparitively little known sports so a bit difficult to predict. But In wushu, especially in the lower weights Of Sanda ( the mixed martial form) we should medal , but possibly not gold.  Same in Kurash but  possibly not in Jujitsu . In Roshabina and Surya  pratap in wushu ( both were bronze medalists in 2018 we should have our best hopes ) last time we got 0-1-5 in martial  with 4 medals in wushu and 2  in kurash. This time I believe our performance would  be *Gold 0-1, medals 2-7*

 

*Rowing-33* – This is  one of the biggest team but with 14 events it is  big sport , India has done well regularly getting 2-3 medals in most editions and a gold  once in a while. But some rule changes have reduced our chances , earlier each nation would be allowed  entry into only a fixed number of events. With China extremely strong it allowed Gold medal chances in some of the events for other countries. But now with china participating in all events it reduces our chances of gold. I believe in 6 of the 7 men rowing events we can medal( excepting single  sculls )  , not much chances in women who will be participating I believe for the first  time. . Gold medal chances are there though in mens fours and to a limited extent in LWM double sculls. Last time 1-0-2. This time  *Gold 0-1, medals 4-6*

 

*sports climbing , rugby 7s, soft tennis* - No chance

 

*Sailing- 16* with 14 events , sailing is a mega sport this Asian games. There are five major types of boats windsurfs , kites , skiffs , multihulls and dinghys India has been doing well in sailing lately for example in the Asian sailing championships of 2022 we got 9 medals. Best chances are in Dinghy events ( ilca 4 and 7 and nacra mixed ). Less chances in the windsurf events which we are weak in.  Best chances for gold are Vishnu saravanan in ilca 7 but some of the others can surprise. So last time 0-1-2. This time * gold 0-2, medals 3-8*

 

*Sepak takraw-16* a fascinating sport , somewhat like volleyball but played with legs , the athleticism is crazy. India won its first medal in 2018 , a bronze . This time again mens regu may be our best event. likely *Gold-0, medals 0-2*

 

*Squash-8* India has done well in squash in the past  and this time though the womens section has a lower chances with both Dipika Pallikal and Joshna Chinappa aging. But mens team seems to be our best event  , with saurav ghoshal in mens individual and mixed pair as likely medallist and maybe even gold . Last time we  had 0-1-4. Likely this time 0-2 gold and 3-4 medals

 

*Table tennis-10* - a sport where we have been improving steadily. I think for the asian games we may have a couple of medal chances primarily in doubles . last time we had surprised ourselves with 0-0-2. This time likely * Gold -0 , Medals 0-2*

*Tennis* - This has been an event that we have won many medals in the past, This time it will be in  the mens doubles ( likely gold ) and mixed doubles ( likely medal ) that we will be most competitive last time 1-0-2 . This time *likely gold 0-2, medals – 1-3*

 

* volleyball-28* - a very long shot in mens event

 

*weightlifting-2* - the smallest of teams  with just 2 weightlufters , but the quality is good with both Mirabai Chanu and Bindyarani likely to medal, unfortunately with the Chinese domination, no gold . so last  time no medals This time likely *Gold-0 , medals 1-2*

 

*wrestling-18* - this has always been a big sport for us at the Asian games. This time because of  the political upheaval which ahs happened. The players are likely to be underprepared. But he best chances would be in freestyle with Aman ( 57 kgs) , Bajrang ( 65 kgs) , Deepak (86 Kgs)  and in womens wrestling wih Antim ( 53 Kgs) , Sonam ( 62 Kgs )  being the best bet for medals , gold chances would be in my opinion restricted to Aman , Bajrang and Antim Last time 2-0-1 *This time Gold-0-3, medals 2-5.

 

*Shooting -33* - I kept shooting for the end , last time it was our second best sport after atheletics with 2-4-3. So how many medals do I think we will get , according to me we should get between 4-9 gold medals and at least 15-18 or so medals . Now I know you may be throwing your hands up in disbelief. But let me explain why. In one off the best improvement reas for india, shooting has beside the traditional 15 olympic events added 12  team events in each of the Olympic individual categories and an extra trap pairs event. Plus I really think the Indian shooting has improved further since last time so hence due to this fortunate confluence last time 2-4-3 *this time gold 4-9 , medals 10-20*

[nitinsanker 202]

*Asian games – India’s likely performance. Part 5 of 5*

                                           *by Nitin Sanker*

 

This part will I will summarize ,predict and give the final expected counts. Do give some love to this post as this is  the last post before the asian games , I will return to give you a rundown on whether my calculations were right

So quick recap of history , Indian performances in the last 6 asian games  (ranking performance in the earlier games before this maybe little  unfair as after the breakdown of the USSR , we had a few powerful sports countries joining in the 90s)

 

*1998     7-11-17  Total 35  Rank 9*

*2002     11-12-13  Total 36  Rank 7*

*2006     10-17-26  Total 53  Rank 8*

*2010     14-17-34  Total 65  Rank 6*

*2014     11-10-36  Total 57  Rank 8*

*2018     16-23-31  Total 70  Rank 8*

 

So I started to look into the likely performance in 2023 and *I am seriously shocked*. Do  these numbers look likely , have I  had a sunstoke and is reality a bit warped. Well here goes my predictions

 

Likely  for India *gold in 2023 : 24-30*, medals in 2023 :80-95* . I normally am a bit optimistic in the likely predictions. But my friends especially batchmates know that I  have never once got my eat my hat predictions wrong ( over at least 6 olympic , asian and commonwealth games ) , so if you want to see the *edifying sight of  me eating my own hat if I get these wrong* you can check out these predictions.

 

Eat  my hat predictions for the asian games

Prediction 1 : *20 or  more gold medals*

Prediction 2 : *75 or  more medals*

Prediction 3 : ranking between *4-6*

If even the eat my hat predictions are done .  This  will be *the best ever performance in the Asiads at least since USSR collapsed*.

[nitinsanker 202]

 

		2018				2023 broad  predictions
	Sport	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Gold	total medals
1	Athletics	8	9	3	20	5-12	17-25
2	Shooting	2	4	3	9	4-9	10-20
3	Wrestling	2	0	1	3	0-3	2-5
4	Bridge	1	0	2	3	0-2	1-2
5	Lawn tennis	1	0	2	3	1-2	1-3
6	Rowing	1	0	2	3	0-1	4-6
7	Boxing	1	0	1	2	2-4	5-10
8	Archery	0	2	0	2	2-5	3-7
9	Equestrian	0	2	0	2	0	0-2
10	Squash	0	1	4	5	0-2	3-4
11	Sailing	0	1	2	3	0-2	3-8
12	Badminton	0	1	1	2	0-3	1-3
13	Hockey	0	1	1	2	1-2	1-2
14	Kabaddi	0	1	1	2	1-2	2
15	Kurash	0	1	1	2	0-1	1-3
16	Wushu	0	0	4	4	0	2-5
17	TT	0	0	2	2	0	1-3
18	Sepak	0	0	1	1	0	0-2
19	Cricket					1-2	2
20	Chess					0-2	1-4
21	Weightlifting					0	1-2
22	Ms(f,c,c,v,r,g,e)					0	1-5
	Total	16	23	31	70	17-56	62-123

[nitinsanker 202]

 

First likely gold by events 

sport	event	name	gender	top asian Ranking	second asian ranking	likely medal
Athletics	long jump	murali/jeswin	men	1		1.GOLD
Athletics	shot putt	Tejinder	men	1	4	1.GOLD
Athletics	javelin	neeraj	men	2	3	1.GOLD
Athletics	4*400 women	indian	women	3		1.GOLD
Athletics	4*400 Mixed	indian	mixed	1		1.GOLD
Athletics	4*400 men	indian	men	2		1.GOLD
Badminton	mens team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Boxing	51kg	nikhat zareen	women	1		1.GOLD
Boxing	75kg	lovlina borgohain	women	1		1.GOLD
Bridge	womens team	India	women	1		1.GOLD
Chess	rapid	arjun	men	1		1.GOLD
Compound archery	mens individual	abhishek verma	men	1	2	1.GOLD
Compound archery	womens indidvidual	jyoti vennam	women	1	2	1.GOLD
Compound archery	mens team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Compound archery	mixed team	India	mixed	1		1.GOLD
Cricket	team	India	women	1		1.GOLD
Cricket	team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Field hockey	Mens team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Field hockey	Womens team	India	women	1		1.GOLD
Kabaddi	team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Rowing	coxless fours	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Sailing	laser/ Ilca 7	vishnu saravanan	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	10m Air rifle	Rudransh	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	10m Air rifle team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	50m Air rifle	Aishwary	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	50m Air rifle team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	10m Air rifle Mixed	India	mixed	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	10m Pistol men	sarabjot	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	10m Pistol team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Shooting	Trap Men	Prithviraj	men	1		1.GOLD
Squash	Team Men	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Squash	Mixed doubles	India	mixed	1		1.GOLD
Tennis	Mens doubles team	India	men	1		1.GOLD
Wrestling	57 kg men	Aman Sehrawat	men	1		1.GOLD
Wrestling	53kg women	antim	women	2		1.GOLD

[nitinsanker 202]

Then likely silvers by event 

 

sport	event	name	gender	top asian Ranking	second asian ranking	likely medal
Athletics	3000 steeeplechase	avinash	men	1		2.SILVER
Athletics	1500metres	deeksha	women	1	4	2.SILVER
Athletics	100MH	jyothi yerraji	women	1		2.SILVER
Athletics	triple jump	aboobacker	men	2	3	2.SILVER
Athletics	discus	kirpal	men	2		2.SILVER
Athletics	3000sc	parul	women	2		2.SILVER
Athletics	long jump	shaili	women	2	4	2.SILVER
Athletics	Heptathalon	swapna barman	women	2		2.SILVER
Badminton	Mens doubles team	India	men	2		2.SILVER
Boxing	51kg	deepak bhoria	men	2		2.SILVER
Chess	rapid	koneru humpy	women	2		2.SILVER
Chess	team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Compound archery	womens team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Kabaddi	team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Kurash	52Kg	Bharti	women	2		2.SILVER
Rowing	lightweight double sculls	arvind & arjun jat	men	1		2.SILVER
Rowing	Eights	India	Men	2		2.SILVER
Sailing	49 FX	harshit and shital	women	2		2.SILVER
Sailing	Laser radial/ Ilca 6	Netra	women	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	10m Air rifle team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	50m 3 position team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	10m Pistol team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	25m Pistol team	India	women	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	10m Pistol mixed pairs	India	mixed	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	Trap Team	India	men	2		2.SILVER
Shooting	skeet women	ganemat shekhon	women	2		2.SILVER
Squash	singles men	saurav ghoshal	men	2		2.SILVER
Weightlifting	49Kg	Mirabai	women	2		2.SILVER
Tennis	Mixed doubles	India	mixed	2		2.SILVER
Wrestling	65 kg men	Bajrang Punia	men	2		2.SILVER
Wushu	womens 60 kg	roshibina  Devi	women	2		2.SILVER

[nitinsanker 202]

sport	event	name	gender	top asian Ranking	second asian ranking	likely medal
Athletics	800 metres	afsal	men	4		3. BRONZE
Athletics	decathalon	tejaswin	men	4		3. BRONZE
Athletics	200metres	jyothi	women	3	5	3. BRONZE
Athletics	400metres	anjali	women	3	4	3. BRONZE
Athletics	800metres	chanda	women	3	5	3. BRONZE
Athletics	5000metres	parul	women	3		3. BRONZE
Athletics	400MH	Vithya Ramraj	women	4		3. BRONZE
Athletics	shot putt	abha khatua	women	6		3. BRONZE
Athletics	discus	seema punia	women	7		3. BRONZE
Athletics	20km walk	priyanka	women	6	10	3. BRONZE
Badminton	Prannoy					3. BRONZE
Boxing	57kg	sanjay siwatch	men	3		3. BRONZE
Boxing	71kg	nishant dev	men	3		3. BRONZE
Boxing	54kg	preeti panwar	women	3		3. BRONZE
Boxing	57kg	praveen hooda	women	3		3. BRONZE
Boxing	68Kg	Arundati	women	3		3. BRONZE
Bridge	mens team	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Bridge	mixed team	India	mixed	3		3. BRONZE
Chess	team	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Equestrian	eventing team	India	mixed	3		3. BRONZE
Esportss	Dota2	India	mixed	3		3. BRONZE
Fencing	womens Sabre individual	bhavani devi	women	3		3. BRONZE
Golf	womens individual	aditi ashok	women	3		3. BRONZE
Golf	mens team	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Golf	womens team	India	women	3		3. BRONZE
Jujitsu	85kg	amarjit lohan	men	3		3. BRONZE
Jujitsu	69Kg	sidharth singh	men	3		3. BRONZE
Kurash	81kg	kunal	men	3		3. BRONZE
Kurash	87kg	Jyoti	women	3		3. BRONZE
Kurash	90kg	rohit	men	3		3. BRONZE
Recurve archery	mens team	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Recurve archery	mens team	India	mixed	4		3. BRONZE
Recurve archery	womens team	India	women	4		3. BRONZE
Rollerskating	mens artistic	Choksey	men	3		3. BRONZE
Rollerskating	womens artistic	samhita	women	3		3. BRONZE
Rowing	Quaduple sculls	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Rowing	double sculls	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Sailing	Ilca 4	advait	Men	not available		3. BRONZE
Sailing	ilca 4	Neha Thakur	women	not available		3. BRONZE
Sailing	49er	varun and KC ganapathy	men	2		3. BRONZE
Sailing	RSX women	Ishwariya Ganesh	women	3		3. BRONZE
Sepak Takraw	mens Regu	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	10m Air rifle	Ramita	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	50m 3 Position men	sift kaur	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	25m Rapid pistol	anish	men	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	25m Pistol team	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	10m Pistol women	rhythm	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	25m Pistol women	rhythm	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	Skeet team	India	men	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	Trap women	shreyasi singh	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	Trap women team	India	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	skeet women team	India	women	3		3. BRONZE
Shooting	skeet Pairs	India	mixed	3		3. BRONZE
Squash	Team women	India	women	3		3. BRONZE
Table tennis	Mixed doubles	India	mixed	3		3. BRONZE
Weightlifting	55Kg	bindyarani	women	3		3. BRONZE
Wrestling	125kg men	Sumit Malik	men	3		3. BRONZE
Wrestling	57kg women	mansi	women	3		3. BRONZE
Wrestling	62 Kg women	sonam	women	3		3. BRONZE
Wushu	52 kg sanda	onilu	men	3		3. BRONZE
Wushu	60 kg mens sanda	Surya bhanu Pratap	men	3		3. BRONZE
Wushu	70 kgs mens sanda	suraj yadav	men	3		3. BRONZE
Wushu	Mens 56 Kg	sunil singh	men	3		3. BRONZE

[nitinsanker 202]

Remember this is event by event analysis based on this the totals look like this ( please take 60-65% likelihood ) 

Row Labels	1.GOLD	2.SILVER	3. BRONZE	Grand Total
Athletics	6	8	10	24
Badminton	1	1	1	3
Boxing	2	1	5	8
Bridge	1		2	3
Chess	1	2	1	4
Compound archery	4	1		5
Cricket	2			2
Equestrian			1	1
Esportss			1	1
Fencing			1	1
Field hockey	2			2
Golf			3	3
Jujitsu			2	2
Kabaddi	1	1		2
Kurash		1	3	4
Recurve archery			3	3
Rollerskating			2	2
Rowing	1	2	2	5
Sailing	1	2	4	7
Sepak Takraw			1	1
Shooting	8	7	11	26
Squash	2	1	1	4
Table tennis			1	1
Tennis	1	1		2
Weightlifting		1	1	2
Wrestling	2	1	3	6
Wushu		1	4	5
Grand Total	35	31	63	129