[PREDICTION CONTESTS] Discussion Thread

[heywoodu 15,141]

Quote

Points will be awarded as follows:

- For right predicted Gold Medal Winner - 4 points.
- For right predicted Silver Medal Winner - 3 points.
- For right predicted Bronze Medal Winner - 2 points.
- For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 1 point.

 

I still just don't get this. Why 4 points for predicting the right gold medal winner, but 2 points for predicting the right bronze medal winner. Both are equal kind of predictions (predict athlete/nation X in position X) and quite often the silver or bronze medal winners are even significantly harder to predict than the gold medal winners, so you get less points for a harder prediction  

[Wumo 3,002]

26 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

 

I still just don't get this. Why 4 points for predicting the right gold medal winner, but 2 points for predicting the right bronze medal winner. Both are equal kind of predictions (predict athlete/nation X in position X) and quite often the silver or bronze medal winners are even significantly harder to predict than the gold medal winners, so you get less points for a harder prediction  

 

A point system based on right predicted podium places and medal winners would probably be better. 

 

My example:

 

Points will be awarded as follows:

- For predicting the correct podium (Correct Gold, Silver and Bronze Winner) - 8 points.
- For predicting two correct podium places (Correct Gold-Silver or Gold-Bronze or Silver-Bronze Winner) - 6 points.
- For predicting one correct podium place (Correct Gold or Silver or Bronze Winner) - 4 points.
- For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 1 point.

 

 

Example

 

Event & Date	Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze
Men's Downhill Day 4 February 9th, 2019	Max Franz
	Vincent Kriechmayr
	Matthias Mayer
	Hannes Reichelt
	Adrien Theaux
	Thomas Dressen
	Peter Fill
	Dominik Paris
	Kjetil Jansrud		X
	Aksel Lund Svindal	X
	Beat Feuz			X
	Gilles Roulin
	Athlete from North America
	Any Other Athlete

 

Results:

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Kjetil Jansrud 

3. Beat Feuz 

Your Total: 8 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Kjetil Jansrud

3. Any Other Athlete

Your Total: 6 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Beat Feuz

3. Kjetil Jansrud 

For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 2 points

Your Total: 6 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Beat Feuz

3. Any Other Athlete 

For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 1 point

Your Total: 5 Points

 

1. Aksel Lund Svindal 

2. Max Franz

3. Any Other Athlete 

Your Total: 4 Points

 

1. Kjetil Jansrud 

2. Beat Feuz

3. Aksel Lund Svindal 

For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 3 points

Your Total: 3 Points

 

1. Kjetil Jansrud

2. Aksel Lund Svindal

3. Any Other Athlete 

For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 2 points

Your Total: 2 Points

 

1. Kjetil Jansrud

2. Max Franz

3. Any Other Athlete 

For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 1 point

Your Total: 1 Point

 

1. Matthias Mayer

2. Max Franz

3. Any Other Athlete 

For right predicted Athlete/Nation but wrong place/medal - 0 points

Your Total: 0 Points

 

 

 

 

 

 

[heywoodu 15,141]

That looks a lot better  

[Wanderer 1,726]

I asked long time ago for suggestions for the scoring systems and no one made a comment

Edited January 31, 2019 by Wanderer

[heywoodu 15,141]

14 minutes ago, Wanderer said:

I asked long time ago for suggestions for the scoring systems and no one made a comment

Because I hadn't seen it

 

Just to clarify: I'm not complaining or saying "hey we have to change that now", most certainly not for this contest of course. Just wondering what the reason is and if it can't be improved for later prediction contests if there's enough support for such a thing.

[Wanderer 1,726]

Just now, heywoodu said:

Because I hadn't seen it

 

Just to clarify: I'm not complaining or saying "hey we have to change that now", most certainly not for this contest of course. Just wondering what the reason is and if it can't be improved for later prediction contests if there's enough support for such a thing.

 

I knew I should tag people when I posted the invite  

 

There was a long discussion at the end of 2011 for the scoring systems (mainly because of the London 2012) and I think this one for individual sports is in use ever since, and is probably the one where users haven't complained almost at all. That's why nothing has changed.

 

I wanted to have an agreement, and to use the same scoring system throughout the year but I am more then willing to accept all reasonable proposals. Have to admit, I like wumo's very much! If forum user's agree - I will be happy to apply it for the very next contest  

[heywoodu 15,141]

14 minutes ago, Wanderer said:

 

I knew I should tag people when I posted the invite  

 

There was a long discussion at the end of 2011 for the scoring systems (mainly because of the London 2012) and I think this one for individual sports is in use ever since, and is probably the one where users haven't complained almost at all. That's why nothing has changed.

 

I wanted to have an agreement, and to use the same scoring system throughout the year but I am more then willing to accept all reasonable proposals. Have to admit, I like wumo's very much! If forum user's agree - I will be happy to apply it for the very next contest  

I always get a bit itchy when changes can 'only be made at the beginning of a new year', so I'm glad to read it doesn't have to be like that by definition  

 

wumo's idea seems perfectly fine to me, I'm curious to hear other people's opinions  

 

By the way, I don't have that much against the current one, if for some reason an agreement can't be made and we stick with this one that's just fine with me too and I promise I won't riot 

 

Spoiler

BECAUSE I'LL LEAVE THE FORUM FOREVER AND SCREW YOU ALL 

 

[Dunadan 1,103]

I don't agree at all...I think the current system is much better and it's fair to give more points for gold.

 

Example using wumo's suggestion: suppose you have a contest with 11 events (like alpine skiing).

User A predicts correctly all bronze medals but nothing else...so 0 G, 0 S, 11 B for a total of 11 medallists in correct positions.

User B predicts correctly gold and silver in 6 events and nothing else for a total of 12 medallists in correct position: 6 G, 6 S, 0 B.

In my opinion User B predicted (much) better than User A but the standings would be:

User A 44 points

User B 36 points

 

This doesn't make much sense to me.

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by Dunadan

[Wumo 3,002]

6 minutes ago, Dunadan said:

I don't agree at all...I think the current system is much better and it's fair to give more points for gold.

 

Example using wumo's suggestion: suppose you have a contest with 11 events (like alpine skiing).

User A predicts correctly all bronze medals but nothing else...so 0 G, 0 S, 11 B for a total of 11 medallists in correct positions.

User B predicts correctly gold and silver in 6 events and nothing else for a total of 12 medallists in correct position: 6 G, 6 S, 0 B.

In my opinion User B predicted (much) better than User A but the standings would be:

User A 44 points

User B 36 points

 

This doesn't make much sense to me.

 

 

Just out of curiosity, why should a user be awarded more points for a correct predicted gold medallist than a correct predicted silver or bronze medallist?

[heywoodu 15,141]

Let's look at swimming: is predicting Katie Ledecky - who utterly dominates long distances - to win 800m gold really a better prediction than being right in the much harder choice of who wins silver and/or bronze?