avlar

Підсумки чергових кваліфікаційних тижнів. Тож маємо: - Біатлон - 10 - Лижі - 5 - Гірські лижі - 2 - Фігурне катання - 1 - Шорт-трек - 2 ******* Мої передбачення: - Сани - 6-8 - Скелетон - 1-2 - Фристайл і сноубординг - 8-10 - Двоборство - 2 - Трамплін - 2 Що нового: Тему перерозподілу в лижах можна закривати - там нам вже, схоже, немає чого робити. У щорт-треку 2 квоти за нами, і 3 дистанції. Шанси на четверту (1500 м у дівчат) - непевні. У фігурному катанні дізналися, що поїде Марсак. Доля пари достеменно невідома. Принаймні, не бачив звісток з Узбекістану і Нідерландів щодо відмов від квот. На трампліні Калініченко набрав перші очки на кубку світу і зміцнив свою позицію в заліку. В принципі, потенційна поява росіян не мала б завадити йому втримати другу квоту. Марусяк попри важкий початок сезону зберігає солідний минулорічний запас. У дівчат трамплін виглядає практично безнадійно. Козлова ситуацію не рятує. Скелетон - Норвегія вийшла дуже слабкою. Тому все для нас вирішить подвійний етап в Сігулді - в плані шансів зачепитися таки за другу квоту для Лавренюка. Сани - якщо дівчата виправили ситуацію в боротьбі за другу квоту, то у хлопців завал Мандзія ще на рівні кубку націй, раптово загострив бортьбу за другу квоту. Наразі ми випереджаємо Канаду на дещицю, а Словаччина вже попереду нас. Втім, суперники на 100% поилкою скористатися не змогли. Але на наступному етапі будуть ще й аінівці У сноубордингу в паралельному слаломі, певно, Данча може почуватися впевнено. А от з чоловічою квоти ми випали. І там треба маленьке диво, щоб її повернути. Так само нелегко буде взяти і другу жіночу квоту. У акробатиці ми запустили на кубок світу 4-у учасницю у дівчат, що потенційно дає цілих 8 квот, якщо вона добере необхідні фіс-поїнти. Але тут треба врахувати 2 моменти - запуск аінівців, які можуть виступити вже наступного тижня в Китаї, та потребу 8 команд у командному турнір - там квоту може відійти і Швейцарії. Одним словом, треба набирати бали. У біг-ейрі фантастичне срібло практично гарантує путівку Катерині Коцар - одразу в двох дисцплінах. Біг-ейру вже до Олімпіади і не буде, але далі ще кілька етапів у слоуп-стайлі. Тобто, 41 - 43 квоти потенційно.

And first ever podium in this sports at the WC level!

Hope she will get the spot.

Russians got 9 neutral statuses in bobsleigh and skeleton. Nonames mostly. They missed a lot and will miss next stages in Sigulda. But their coach said that "they will be at Olympics - you will see how". It looks like they are going to demand "defended rankings" usage to get the quotas.

Our national team finally got silver medals from the World Championship 2011.

And what about this? )))

I am not really sure if we can discuss it seriousely since you support russia and I do not. Russian ideology is non-utilitarian. It has neo-Eurasianism as its foundation. It means that it is not important for them how many resources do they have until they do not have ours. Have you read Humiliov, Dugin?

Surely, we are not going to go very far. But all the discussions are in the dead end. Ukraine, EU and USA may discuss the question, but russians is not going to stop. And there is no political will in the US to make them withdraw.

The answer for this question: russians are not going to stop. I know very well their geopolitical doctrines: they want all the territory of Ukraine (terrirtory and resources) to reestablish empire. I read Dugin and Dugin was in charge of the higher educations of russian diplomats. Having Ukrainian resources they would be able to go further west. Our slow retreat helps to save soldiers and win time. Russians are using "meat attacks". We cannot do the same. One little and important correction - they do not capture but destroy the cities. Ukrainian cities captured during Worl War II remained the cities. Bakhmut and others are totally ruined.

Russians claimed that they had captured Kupyansk several times.

They were counted sepatately in all the sports during Olympic qualifications. So right now they are to gran 2 male and 2 female quotas. How potential reallocation will work if the quotas approved by FIS will not be confirmed by the IOC? I really do not know ))

Yes, Tymoshchuk is an old story. About visiting Crimea - it was not offence at all in 2016 for Ukrainian citizens since there were official points where one can enter the Crimea. A lot of Ukrainians from other parts of the state owned properties, had relatives there - so they needed (and could) legally visit Crimea. It was not considered border transfer. But, it was/is not the same for russians - they could/cannot not legally enter the Crimea (and the rest occupied territories) from the russian territory. That is the difference.

Statement from the president of the russian Luge federation (yesterday): "Our team is in Kazakhstan and is preparing to apply for U.S. visas. We are setting an example for our entire country, especially for the younger generation. They see that a difficult path is not a reason to give up. It teaches perseverance. In this perseverance lies our shared strength, our mission to millions of young people for whom sports are a guiding point and a shining star. I believe in our country, in our strong-spirited guys. I sincerely love and respect our president, Vladimir Putin. He is the best president in the world. May God grant him strength and good health." Do they deserve neutral status?

I did not think it would happen again but... I created similar post for Paris - 2024 https://totallympics.com/forums/topic/27489-ain-athletes-qualification-for-paris-2024-olympic-games-and-reallocation-of-quotas-post1-updated-1507/#comments I was not sure if that reallocations would really happen but the reality was even more serious than the expectations. According to this research 43% of the neutral statuses issued by the IFs were fake AIN - https://razom22.com/neutrality-research/ And the figures are based on the IOC decisions - not on the evaluations by Ukrainian NOC or sport ministry. Right now the situation is absolutely unclear. As usually )) Some notes: 1. Russians will not reject quotas for 2026 as they did for 2024 in judo and wrestling. 2. AINERP may be more loyal to russians due to the new member - Watanabe. His federation issued AIN status to Melnikova who took part in the primaries of the russian ruling party, had phots with Z and e .t.c. 3. I do not expect a lot of reallocations becaues of the total small number of the rus/blr athletes in qualification events right now. 4. BUT, even with these small numbers we see that FIS allowed to compete several incompliant persons. Short notes from the IOC statement before Paris - 2024: 1. IOC`s decisions to reject quotas are final. 2. IOC`s decisions to approve quotas are not final - new facts may lead to the rejection of invitation. 3. IOC`s decisions cannot be appealed - NOCs were not invited to the Games, so it is a good will to invite individual athletes... or not * - provisional, waiting for formailities russians Sports Athlete(s) Discipline Possible Reallocation NOC IOC Decision + IF reallocation if happened Figure skating Adeliia PETROSIAN Women's singles Stefania Yakovleva Confirmed by IOC Figure skating Petr GUMENNIK Men's singles Davide Lewton Brain Confirmed by IOC Cross country Dariya NEPRYAEVA * Cross country W ? Pending Cross country Savelii KOROSTELEV * Cross country M ? Pending Speed Skating Kseniia KORZHOVA 3000 m Greta Myers Pending Speed Skating Anastasiia SEMENOVA Mass Start Julia Nizan Pending Short Track Alena KRYLOVA 500 m, 1000 m 1500(W) Confirmed by IOC Short Track Ivan POSASHKOV 1000 m, 1500m 1500(W) Confirmed by IOC Ski mountaineering Nikita FILIPPOV Sprint ? ? Confirmed by IOC Luge Pavel REPILOV * Men's singles Mirza Nikolajev Pending Luge Daria OLESIK * Women's singles Elsa Desmond Pending Alpine Skiing Julia PLESHKOVA * OR Ekaterina TKACHENKO DH OR SL,GS ? ? Pending Alpine Skiing Aleksander ANDRIENKO * OR Simon EFIMOV OR Ivan KUZNETSOV GS OR SL OR GS ? ? Pending belorussians Sports Athlete(s) Discipline Possible Reallocation NOC IOC Decision + IF reallocation if happened Figure skating Viktoriya SAFONOVA Women's singles Stefania Yakovleva Confirmed by IOC Speed Skating Marina ZUEVA 3000 m 5000m Greta Myers Violette Braun Pending Cross country Hanna MACHAKHINA * Cross country W ? ? Pending Alpine Skiing Maria SHKANOVA * SL ? ? Pending Freestyle Hanna HUSKOVA * Aerials W Anna Derugo Rosalie Gagnon Pending

I would say they will not be eligible. But it realy abotut the wording every federation has in its papers. World Aquatics changes their policies several times (especially after Mazepin "solved the issues" persoanlly - as witnessed one russian Olympic champion) Inoirtnat notes on FIS decisions: FIS points are frozen for ruissns and belorussians - so the situation is not so complicated for a lot of them. The list of the AIN`s is not final as the list from ISU was. It means that persons mau be not only removed from the list but added as well. I expect russians to try some freestyle applications before the stage in China, for example. FIS has not problems with the deny of visa or entris by the host countries. So they kept the possibility to close the doors for the russians for all the countries as ICF did. No sanctions for this, no removing events from the Olympic qualification list, no host changes, * * * * * Here is the the relevant extract from FIS papers for Aerials tram event. What do you think?

Not only Korostelev but all 3 russian entries. I will bring the detail

Russians filed an appeal to CAS against IBU. But I do not believe they will get any result in time to grab quotas. I suppose IBU will not agree to have "fast" hearings as FIS did. And i suppose IBU will fight in CAS without intention to lose as FIS did.

Any news on quota in pairs?

Right now russians themselves metioned that they have 2 main options for women`s quota: - Peklecova will was not included into the international doping testing pool (RUSADA is still incompliant after that scandal) - D.Nepryaeva had training camps at the occupied territories - it is the best way to avoid of the international doping testing at all P.S. Little detail - according to Vaelbe 90% of russian skiera are contracted with russian army or other security services.

We had no real problems with russians for a long time. It was a normal sport rivalry. It was common case that statues of russian politicians and poets remained in place even in the Western Ukraine which was joined by the Soviet Union much later. Lyskun was pro-Ukrainian according to her statement but she kept conctcts with her former coach. That coach moved to russia earlier and could do some brainwashing. I would say that the coach may have financial motivation to do this. By the way we had similar case with Bondar from Luhansk who moved to russia in 2014. What is really interesting - russians have a lot of resources but it took them 4 yeats to find someone relatively well-known in sport area to stage this propaganda performance. Yes, this web-site is active and maintained. The list is beeing updated. But it is not an official goverment resource and it is operated by the non-goverment organization. It was created to draw attention of the national security services to the activities of some people and provide some initial foundations for further formal investigations.

I would say - he did not share some part of "the profit" with someone from above )

A moment to recall. Today we will see Trump instead of Robin Williams

I think they incorrectly translated Ukrainian word "nahorody" - it is not a full synonym of "medal". Its cocrrect translation is "award". Meanwhile russian tennis playes switched for Potapova -> Rakhimova ->

Surely. Her first coach now works in russia (and grandma lives in russia according to Sereda). They were in contact and despite of full funding from the girl decided to become the star of russian propaganda. As I saw in X: "It took the Russians four years of war to find a relatively well-known sports personality to carry out such a propaganda operation."