Day 15 Update
Right now, at the end of Day 15, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
39 gold medals (+1 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
38 gold medals (+2 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
16 gold medals (+7 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
Everything will be decided on the last day.
I don't think the US system is fragile. It's more that the United States is facing increased competition in their traditional sports (Australia in swimming, Canada in athletics, etc.). Meanwhile, China continues to dominate in its preferred sports (diving, table tennis, etc.).
Day 14 Update
Right now, at the end of Day 14, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
33 gold medals (+2 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
33 gold medals (-3 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
14 gold medals (+7 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
USA - 41 gold medals
China - 35 gold medals
France - 17 gold medals
Day 13 Update
Right now, at the end of Day 13, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
30 gold medals (+1 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
29 gold medals (-5 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
14 gold medals (+7 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
USA - 40 gold medals
China - 33 gold medals
France - 17 gold medals
Day 12 Update
Right now, at the end of Day 12, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
27 gold medals (+2 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
25 gold medals (-7 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
13 gold medals (+7 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
USA - 41 gold medals
China - 31 gold medals
France - 17 gold medals
Day 11 Update
Right now, at the end of Day 11, we have the following gold medals for the USA, China, and France:
24 gold medals (= compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
22 gold medals (-10 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
13 gold medals (+7 compared to the same period at the 2020 Games)
This would imply the following total at the end of the 2024 Games:
USA - 39 gold medals
China - 28 gold medals
France - 17 gold medals