Epic Failure

So I just totted up what I think are the totals for the OQT for USA, AUS, GBR, Japan, Italy, China and France, using the FINA LCM rankings from 1st March 23 to today.
 
Those were the countries I thought might have a chance of being near the top of a list like this. There are other countries which are strong in part (Canadian & Dutch women) but less so collectively. I could be doing them a disservice not including them, but I was already looking at enough to fry my brain anyway
 
Russia would likely be somewhere in there, but with their uncertain status about things, I've not included in these figures.
 
USA - Men 83, Women 98 = 181 total
Aus - Men 34, Women 60 = 94 total
Japan - Men 38, Women 27 = 65 total
China - Men 25, Women 39 = 64 total
GBR - Men 34, Women 25 = 59 total
Italy - Men 33, Women 14 = 47 total
France - Men 25, Women 14 = 39 total
 
These are qualified swims, not swimmers. So Duncan Scott - for example - is in the GBR quota 3 times (100m fr, 200m fr, 200m IM). It would take me a lot longer to work that out, at least for countries that are not GBR. GBR is 37 total swimmers with an OQT - 23 men and 14 women.
 
 

Do you have any actual evidence to back that up, or are you just guessing?
 
Because unless Freya chooses not to go or her illness gets worse again, I would be stunned if GB don't take her. Even if just as relay cover.
 
We saw in London that Freya at 90% (her description) is still good enough to be in the 4x100m free team. With the 4x200m and mixed medley as well, it would be crazy to not take her.
 
It would be utterly self defeating to not select her.

I don't think anyone doubted that Amber would have a strong year after her indoor improvements. I fully expect her to go under 50 at some point this year.
 
But keeping spring NCAA form into the summer is not guaranteed. We only have to look at Britton Wilson last year. Even Adeleke - who held her form better than Wilson did - was over half a second slower in Budapest than she was at the NCAA champs.
 
It's great overall to see Amber's progression. It just might not work out this specific summer. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.

If you look at the press release of the team announcement, Darren Campbell specifically says that Dina and Daryll will 'join the team in the summer'. So, in theory, they are playing this as an agreed absence. We'll see later in the year if that is the case, I guess...
 
On the 4x4 women's side probably missing Jessie Knight from our strongest, as well as Yemi Mary John - although Yemi is in the same position as Amber with college commitments so you imagine that explains her absence as well.

We don't know for certain when they will announce it but the selection policy says that the athletes will be notified by Thursday at the latest.

Overall I have really enjoyed this meet, and I have enjoyed the integration of the para and able bodied swimmers. 
 
The para swimmers have put on a great show with some truly world class times. 
As a summary, I thought I'd go through the para swimming prospects for Paris, and give the times which would have won medals at last years worlds.
 
Men's 100m Freestyle S12 - Silver
Men's 200m Freestyle S14 - Gold
Men's 400m Freestyle S6 - Bronze
Men's 100m Backstroke S12 - Gold
Men's 100m Backstroke S14 - Bronze
Men's 100m Butterfly S12 - Gold
Men's 100m Butterfly S14 - Silver
Men's 200m IM S6 - Bronze
Men's 200m IM S14 - Bronze
 
Women's 50m Freestyle S8 - Silver
Women's 100m Freestyle S5 - Gold
Women's 200m Freestyle S5 - Gold
Women's 200m Freestyle S14 - Gold, Silver + Bronze
Women's 400m Freestyle S8 - Gold
Women's 400m Freestyle S10 - Bronze
Women's 50m Backstroke S3 - Gold
Women's 50m Backstroke S5 - Silver
Women's 100m Backstroke S8 - Gold
Women's 100m Backstroke S14 - Gold, Silver + Bronze
Women's 100m Butterfly S8 - Bronze
Women's 100m Butterfly S10 - Gold + Bronze
Women's 100m Butterfly S14 - Gold + Silver
Women's 100m Breaststroke S5 - Silver
Women's 100m Breaststroke S6 - Gold
Women's 100m Breaststroke S7 - Gold
Women's 100m Breaststroke S8 - Gold
Women's 100m Breaststroke S13 - Silver
Women's 100m Breaststroke S14 - Bronze
Women's 200m IM S6 - Gold
Women's 200m IM S8 - Gold
Women's 200m IM S14 - Gold + Bronze
 
Mixed 4x100m Freestyle S14 - Gold
 
Overall, that results in 19 Golds, 9 Silvers and 11 Bronzes. For comparison, we got 8 Golds, 9 Silvers and 9 Bronzes in Tokyo

With the outdoor season having kicked off and the "current form" window for UK Athletics now open, I thought I'd share this for those who are interested.
 
This is the athlete long-list that I think our ultimate Olympic squad will come from.
 
Needless to say, I don't think all or even the majority of them will be selected and some of them may not even compete this year due to injury, but these are the athletes whose performances I am going to try and track over the next few weeks/months heading into trials (although I am always happy to accommodate a few breakout performances).
 
Athletics 24.xlsx

So I drew up a draft team earlier today, and from what I saw tonight nothing changed.
 
Some of this is known, some of it is my guesswork what will happen in Paris event wise:
 
Men
 
50 free - Proud and Cohoon
100 free - Richards and Dean
200 free - Richards and Scott
400 free - Bird
1500m free - Jervis
 
100 back - Morgan and Marshall
200 back - Morgan and Greenbank
 
100 breast - Peaty and Wilby
 
100 fly - Litchfield
 
200IM - Scott and Dean
400IM - Litchfield
 
Relay extras - Guy, McMillan
 
Women
 
50 free - Hopkin
100 free - Hopkin and Anderson
200 free - Wood and Anderson
 
100 back - Dawson and Harris
200 back - Osrin and Shanahan
 
100 breast - Evans and Hanlon
 
100 fly - MacInnes
200 fly - MacInnes and Stephens
 
200IM - Wood and Colbert
400IM - Colbert and Shanahan
 
Relay extras - Okaro, Hope
 
I think they will run all 7 relays.
 
Toby Robinson could get in the 800 or 1500 but I've not counted him because he'll be there anyway and I doubt he'll risk the pool events given that the open water is after them in the program.
 
I've made some guesses based on workload and people who I think have FINA OQTs, obviously.
 
Now to see how wrong I am when the selectors make their announcement this week.

Jacob would do well to beat Bird tonight, as Jacob didn't make the A final! I suppose it is possible that he does a quicker time in the B final.

Jacob would do well to beat Bird tonight, as Jacob didn't make the A final! I suppose it is possible that he does a quicker time in the B final.

Jacob would do well to beat Bird tonight, as Jacob didn't make the A final! I suppose it is possible that he does a quicker time in the B final.

Between them, Evans and Hopkin need to find 0.11 seconds on their 2024 seasons bests. Makes it sound much more manageable. 

I guess the 'positive' is that we know Guy has it in him to do a great relay split. Whereas previously we were grateful that Greenbank was getting sub-54 splits consistently!

Fair play to Joe Litchfield. It's not his fault that everyone else underperformed. He's improved his PB by almost a second today. He showed up when others didn't. 
 
I wouldn't be doing anything to risk him underperforming in Paris by making him chase a time. If that means Peters doesn't get to go, so be it.
 
Honestly, the only way I would be taking Peters now is if Guy qualifies in the 200m free as one of the 4 relay slots.
 
If Jimmy doesn't qualify that way, I'd still be taking him as cover for the various relays - he's the only swimmer who can cover all 3 relays who isn't already on the team.
 
 
 

Considering Medi's situation it would hardly be crazy. Most people were surprised that she even took part in these champs at all.

Safe to say that the 100 fly did not go according to plan.

There's a bunch of other people who are vying for that spot and it's likely to depend on results in the 50m and 200m, along with other events given the cap British Swimming has imposed.
 
So Whittle, whilst being a strong contender if they do want to take some specific relay cover, isn't as close right now as some others mentioned might be (for what it is worth, I don't think Cox is quite as close either)

The 4 tonight were quicker than the respective top 4 at trials last year by about 0.4 seconds collectively (and each swimmer was faster than their respective finisher last year), so I'm not sure you can use that race to write off their chances of a medal.

Proud’s days of doing 100 relays are long gone for sure 🤣

Depends on how expected you think. The only one that has probably exceeded expectations thus far has been Bird. Dean was fine tonight but nothing special. Others (Brooker, Adam, Williams, Mildred etc) have been outperformed by others. Very few of the Bath swimmers have matched their seedings thus far. 

Yeah, I'd have the US and China currently dueling out for gold with GBR currently heading the pack for bronze. There's obviously lots that could change before the sumemr but that's where I'd put my money if I were a betting man right now.

The 4 tonight were quicker than the respective top 4 at trials last year by about 0.4 seconds collectively (and each swimmer was faster than their respective finisher last year), so I'm not sure you can use that race to write off their chances of a medal.

First major complaint about these champs - I am getting a little bit sick of the whole "you've put yourself in a great position in front of those selectors" chat from the presenter.
 
Really hope that before the end of the champs, one of the swimmers breaks ranks and responds by saying "well I've done the time they asked for, so they bloody well better select me!" 

She's still got to drop another couple of seconds to match the podium from last year. But she's definitely trending in the right direction.

Jimmy's scratching the 100m Free final tonight, which does suggest that he's even more focused on the fly and 200m free than ever.
 
He's obviously a superstar for what he's done for GBR over the years already - his reaction to the gold in Tokyo is hands down one of my favourite GB Olympic moments of all time - but I'm not convinced that unless he's become Caleb Dressel overnight that it will get us atop the podium.
 
If everyone swims to their potential, Xu and Pan are better than Morgan/Richards. Qin hasn't yet beaten Peaty at his best but he's on the rise and Peaty is not yet back to his absolute imperious best. I'm not going to call that one either way right now. So Jimmy would have to absolutely clobber them in the fly. I think he can beat them, but I'm not sure by enough.
 
The US is the same - Armstrong or Murphy are both ahead of Morgan. Peaty ahead of Fink and the freestyle probably a tie. Dare Rose is probably a match at least for Jimmy. The great unknown there is Dressel obviously.
 
Obviously, there's a bunch of things that could change - an injury for any of the teams could change things drastically. And form is never a guarantee, not to mention the constant risk of DQs.
 
GBR is absolutely capable of standing atop the podium. But it isn't something I'd be putting money on right now. However, we've definitely looked closer as a result of this week than we did even a month ago!