RussB

Britain will be strong contenders in the team eventing, and team dressage (& individual dressage with Charlotte Dujardin on ImHoTep). Lesser chances but still possibles in the jumping. But I wouldn’t go near describing those chances as “locks”.

The state of GB athletics is in a bit of a mess at the moment with regards to funding etc Be interesting to see if Mollie can continue her improvement at those 4.80 heights and if Kerr can impress. Beyond that I’m not sure where else the Brits performances to shine will come from in Glasgow.

That’s a real shame for the GB ladies, probably should lower that medal expectations…

Are the Gadirova twins expected to make it back ?

If keanna makes strides in the 100m butterfly and Lauren /medi can drop some time in the 100m back then the girls 4x100 medley relay might get a little interesting all of a sudden. Edinburgh is the next stop for sure, GB trials could really be fireworks I think in April. Looking forward to seeing who makes a big jump forward 😃

Yes - great news that she has taken a massive step forward. Definitely came in the radar when she knocked 7 secs off her 200m PB at the end of 2023! That British record might be in danger… she still needs to win at trials though which might be a tight race with Kara. the other notable performance from BUCS was Ollie Morgan in the 100m (time would have won world bronze) and 1m 57 200m. As GB should meet all the relay criteria, then the 30 threshold might indeed need re-looking at. the distance swimmers like Bird, Jarvis, Blocksidge, Fleur Lewis could put pressure on that number. Backup for the relays will also be key, so it’ll be interesting to see how it all fits together.

"Lock" so far out is really precarious (injuries/form etc). But I think there are a few in the pool, strongest being Aus women in the freestyle relays. For a less obvious answer, I'd suggest Imogen Grant and Emily Craig for GBR in the lightweight double sculls, who have dominated in the past 2 years.

Does anyone have the latest standings in regards to the quotas for both men and women for Paris? it feels like the men have the talent to have 2 spots but haven’t been able to put it all together across an individual meet yet, with Ross Kye and Paddy all racing at world cups. it would be interesting to see what they need to achieve over the remaining qualification meets.

Not due to lack of speed. Led at the first bend from a very wide draw and lost control on the outside when leading. boom or bust type from what I’m seeing which is a great characteristic from someone who wants to sneak a shock medal. seems we are both in opposite camps. We shall see. Weird round 4 with Kye getting the win after so many crashed out.

After a second place finish in Brisbane, I’m doubling down on this being an outside medal chance for GBR. Great riding from Ross in changeable weather conditions 😃

I don’t see GB being favourites for gold in any of the relays aside from the men’s 4x200m free… the women’s team I think will perform well with finals appearances but without the medals to show for it as the top end is another level in most events. I think Amelie might qualify for both the 800 and 1500. Her season is all on those two races at trials; she races every session at junior meets over long distances and it’ll be interesting to see what she can with more rest and a taper.

Pretty underwhelming 4x200. Looks like it’s all in on Jimmy and Deano being on form in Paris to join Matt and Duncan.

Duncan Scott is reportedly still in heavy training, so puts the performances into some perspective. we know the large number of swimmers out in Flagstaff Arizona (altitude) have been in intense training before Worlds as well, so I’m not sure how much taper they have had, e.g. Abbie Wood

I’m only suggesting as a wildcard chance, based on the form he showed at Rotorua.. I’m going to pay attention to his performances to see if the form continues. Ross was a highly touted junior, I don’t think it would be the biggest shock if he did make the jump. But I’m always the GB over-optimistic hype man 😂😂

Think you can add Ross Cullen to that list as a wildcard, obviously depending on whether GBR improve to get 2 quotas +/or his battle vs Kye Whyte to be selected.

I think for me the women’s BMX and men’s ITT have got to be higher. Not sure who aside from Ganna is going to have the engine on such a flat parcours to compete with Tarling… on a related note if the men’s TP is Tarling, Bigham, Tanfield and Hayter as I think it will be, they will be incredibly tough to beat. women’s BMX currently looks like Beth vs Saka in a true 50/50 ( similar in my eyes to chances of womens team sprint). I’m not so bullish on men’s BMX gold medal chances (I think Kieran medals but gold is a much lower probability), and would move women’s omnium down due to what form Wollaston was showing in Adelaide. I’d also not rule out Emma winning the Keirin… she is naive in this event but with that level of true speed it’s not impossible she gets it right when it matters.

Ally Wollaston looked like she had Katie’s number at the recent nations cup. In all of the events I thought she looked the stronger and more canny tactical rider. Archibald was clearly best of the rest so imagine it will come down to these two and Lotte Kopecky. NZ will challenge in the team pursuit, Germany will start as favs in the team sprint I imagine, and even Emma got turned over recently in the individual sprint so it might be less straightforward for the women although the team should be very powerful.

Not sure what to make of that. Found himself a body length down on Fink after diving in and looked like spent too much trying to reel him in on first 50. Goes 0.5 secs slower than the semi final. Think that'll be a big disappointment for Adam.

Quite disappointed that Luke couldn’t go a bit faster given his resurgence over 200m.. but difficult to really judge given the time of year

I posted about the 1500m on this thread as that is her avenue to make the Paris team. However - if she continues to drop her 800m time in conjunction she could overturn Freya Colbert at trials. Her 400m IM is very raw, but there is a chance she can move that forward towards the 4:40 mark in a relatively short order. What an exciting prospect. The British record for 1500m is Jaz Carlin’s 15m 47… she could genuinely challenge it in the next couple of years. I think on full rest, she might go sub 16m at trials.

I think the men’s situation looks slightly clearer than the women’s. Tarling has been involved in the nations cup and training with the track team, in addition to publically saying the intention is to double up with the ITT. This makes sense with creating a spare endurance rider for GBR to use on track. With Backstedt I’m not aware there has been any public info or acknowledgment on how British cycling intend to use her in Paris. In fact further than that, some posters have indicated they don’t think she even makes the team at all. Whilst I’m not in that camp, I’ve been vocal in wishing she is seen in two formats, I don’t know how she fits in. Does putting her into the team pursuit at this point even make sense? I’m not sure there is a strong argument. Plus they may already have a complication with Kenny maybe making a late push for selection. The mountain bike I’m not sure she will contest for medals but I’m bullish on her chances in the time trial. She is a real talent and powerhouse.

Duncan looked rapid in the 4x100 relay so have high hopes we see him back to his 200m free best

Think it would depend on whether you viewed Backstedt as having a role in the ITT or on the track team as the substitute rider? in my view I think she has to go in the ITT as her best chance of getting a medal for GB. Beyond that, I really don’t know what the plans are generally for the GB women’s cycling lineups.

58.60 is a solid effort from Peaty - be interesting if he can go a bit faster in the final

Thought Beth and Ross got very unlucky in round 2. Beth couldn’t get round Saka into round 1 and then tailed her throughout, gaining on the final straight to finish a tyre behind. Ross was leading down second straight in his semi final where he lost his balance on slight contact and couldn’t stay on the course.