GB Athletics

[mpjmcevoy 363]

  On 7/21/2024 at 12:06 AM, Olympicsnell said:

I think i would move the m4x100 to medal contender.

 

I still have faith hughes can get into some sort of form to challenge for bronze in 100....infact i have more faith in him challenging than i do with dina right now

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Azu, Hinch and a clearly-returning-from-a-worse-injury-than-he-admitted Hughes actually looked ok here, 2 sub 10, 1 10 flat. Medal chances are not huge, but if Hughes keeps coming back, the man ran 9.83 last year, and Noah and Oblique aside, no-one is pulling up trees. An Azu-Hinch-NMB-Hughes team is still a strong medal outfit in my view - even today Azu and Hinch were on a flyer before calamity struck.

 

For me the medal chance tiers are (out of 10)

 

10: Should win gold, roaring favourite - Keely

 

9: Very strong gold chance, probably favourite - Matt

 

8:

 

7: Good gold chance, strong medal favourite - Josh, Molly

 

6: Outside gold chance , strong medal chance - W4x1, M4x4

 

5:

 

4: good medal chance, gold unlikely - Jemma, M4 x 1, KJT

 

3: outside medal chance, worth a watch - W 4 x 4, Pattison/Wightman, Muir/Bell,

 

2: As 3: but less so - Zharnel 100, Dina 100, Sember 100h

 

1: who the hell knows - X x 4

 

0: Won't see that coming - Anyone else.

 

for the record, in 2012 I'd have put Farah !0 and 9 in the two events, ennis 9 Ohurougu 5, Grabarz 2 and rutherford 6

[mpjmcevoy 363]

  On 7/20/2024 at 7:17 PM, RussB said:

It's the nature of the pole vault. There is a fair degree of variability in performance, but her medal chances would have to be a fair bit more than 50% if someone was to model it accurately.

The 800m was interesting, Reekie can essentially get towed along behind Keely and stay relatively close (which I wasn't expecting). Could it be possible the Brits go 1-2-3...Mary will have a big say but after watching that race today, maybe its not a complete impossibility. Great form for Bell as well going into the 1500m.

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The thing today was Keely laid off the pacemaker (so no 'draft') but absolutely ran her own race - exactly the tactics she used to beat Mary earlier this year, and I suspect the tactical game plan they've come up with to neutralise Moraa's ridiculous mucking about with tempo and pace. If Reekie has decided that her best gameplan is to track Keely like a limpet, it's a very good game plan that clearly works for her. It also creates the possibility of a GBR 'wall; in the final if they get there.

 

The rogue element is Gill. How does she react, in particular, to Moraa's antics, given her lack of experience. My hunch is she will reach the final, and when there might just rabbit, deny Moraa the lead and make the race very fast. if so, it plays right into Keely's hands because it forces Moraa's pace up in the first 500, robbing her of her spoiler slow middle 200.

 

we shall see. absolutely intriguing.

[RussB 189]

I tend to agree although it was interesting to hear Phoebe’s tactics at trials were not to front run as we have seen her do when setting her 1m 57.

 

My gut tells me Phoebe can do something really special in Paris in a fast race where she doesn’t have to lead all 2 laps. The Brits would be suited by Moraa going out hard, Phoebe taking over when she slows with 400 to go and Keely and Reekie making their moves in last 200.

Edited July 21, 2024 by RussB

[mpjmcevoy 363]

  On 7/21/2024 at 1:18 AM, RussB said:

I tend to agree although it was interesting to hear Phoebe’s tactics at trials were not to front run as we have seen her do when setting her 1m 57.

 

My gut tells me Phoebe can do something really special in Paris in a fast race where she doesn’t have to lead all 2 laps. The Brits would be suited by Moraa going out hard, Phoebe taking over when she slows with 400 to go and Keely and Reekie making their moves in last 200.

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I will say this. much slower race, but in the last 100 Phoebe put more metres into Reekie at Trials than Keely did today. But that was off the back of 29.1, 29.1, 29.1 today

[RussB 189]

  On 7/21/2024 at 1:20 AM, mpjmcevoy said:

I will say this. much slower race, but in the last 100 Phoebe put more metres into Reekie at Trials than Keely did today. But that was off the back of 29.1, 29.1, 29.1 today

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No one seemed to mention the time Phoebe ran off a much slower pace at trials. She still ran a 1m 58 and didn’t weaken one iota and didn’t get the benefit of drafting for most of the race. My prediction right now:

1) Keely 2) Phoebe 3) Moraa but how incredible would it be if the Brits could clean sweep. Never thought I’d ever see that in an Olympics athletics event.

[RussB 189]

As a small note, great to see GB ladies finish 1-2 in the European U18s 1500m this morning (Belshaw with a 4m 13 PB) and that's without Phoebe competing who would have blown the field away. Middle-distance running in GB is enjoying such a bright period and the future looks very promising.

Edited July 21, 2024 by RussB

[Epic Failure 356]

  On 7/21/2024 at 12:56 AM, mpjmcevoy said:

Here's the problem - only care about medals ? The best chance is probably the mixed 4 x 4, using Matt, Charlie Dobson, Anna A and Lavaia. That team is probably evens to win the damn thing, certainly in the top 4 favourites - the dutch women are faster, but their men are mediocre, the American's absolutely will not put their top 4 in - no way on earth. The top Irish team are strong, but this team looks stronger. Jamaicas men are week, relatively.

 

But there is also no way Matt would agree to run this. He'd be insane to.

 

So do you put out a decent but not great side, only to finish 5th or 6th, or worse, while a handful of teams prioritise it to get a much desired medal (e,g, the Irish, the dutch) and the American understrength team beats GB understrength team? Or do you give a couple of your squad members a run-out so they can claim to be Olympians, and possibly, possibly, sneak a bronze if everyone does the same?

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Personally I believe that the best chance of gold is probably Matt in the individual. So I wouldn't do anything to upset that.

 

We just don't know how other nations are going to approach it. The US, even with an understrength team, is probably as much of a challenge as Matt faces in the individual. They just have so much strength in depth.

 

But if we accept that a Matt-less GBR has silver at its peak, that possible silver is surely a greater chance than any of the others have in the individual? I get that an athlete has to be confident, but they surely should be realistic as well.

 

I can only speak about what I would do but if I were Charlie/Amber/Laviai, I'd be chomping at the bit for the mixed and hoping that the other bloke shows up in halfway decent form.

 

The squad members are better off in the heats of the single sex relays, to get us into the final. There's more leeway there to get to the final.

[cjsavory 44]

  On 7/21/2024 at 1:09 AM, mpjmcevoy said:

Azu, Hinch and a clearly-returning-from-a-worse-injury-than-he-admitted Hughes actually looked ok here, 2 sub 10, 1 10 flat. Medal chances are not huge, but if Hughes keeps coming back, the man ran 9.83 last year, and Noah and Oblique aside, no-one is pulling up trees. An Azu-Hinch-NMB-Hughes team is still a strong medal outfit in my view - even today Azu and Hinch were on a flyer before calamity struck.

 

For me the medal chance tiers are (out of 10)

 

10: Should win gold, roaring favourite - Keely

 

9: Very strong gold chance, probably favourite - Matt

 

8:

 

7: Good gold chance, strong medal favourite - Josh, Molly

 

6: Outside gold chance , strong medal chance - W4x1, M4x4

 

5:

 

4: good medal chance, gold unlikely - Jemma, M4 x 1, KJT

 

3: outside medal chance, worth a watch - W 4 x 4, Pattison/Wightman, Muir/Bell,

 

2: As 3: but less so - Zharnel 100, Dina 100, Sember 100h

 

1: who the hell knows - X x 4

 

0: Won't see that coming - Anyone else.

 

for the record, in 2012 I'd have put Farah !0 and 9 in the two events, ennis 9 Ohurougu 5, Grabarz 2 and rutherford 6

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I like this way of laying it out, and agree with most of the calls. I think I'd probably chuck Dobson/Anning in either 1 or 2, and I reckon DAS has a better chance of nicking a bronze in the 200m than the 100m. The one I feel I should be able to put as either a 2 or a 3, but can't quite get there with, is Neil Gourley - keep waiting for him to make the leap, and at least be the Peter Elliott to Kerr and Wightman's Coe and Ovett, but it hasn't happened yet.

[cjsavory 44]

And I think I did underrate Dobson's chances of getting in the mix. He seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on, rather than plateauing out, and the bronze medal times in each of the last three major Global champs definitely aren't beyond him...

 

Tokyo - 44.19

Eugene - 44.66

Budapest - 44.37

 

Key will be managing the rounds, and putting himself in a position to take advantage of any opportunities.

[RussB 189]

  On 7/21/2024 at 11:07 PM, cjsavory said:

And I think I did underrate Dobson's chances of getting in the mix. He seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on, rather than plateauing out, and the bronze medal times in each of the last three major Global champs definitely aren't beyond him...

 

Tokyo - 44.19

Eugene - 44.66

Budapest - 44.37

 

Key will be managing the rounds, and putting himself in a position to take advantage of any opportunities.

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The 400m is going to be a dog fight. You have a bevy of athletes going 44 flat, and then Matt and Quincy going 43.7.

Doom from Belgium I think has to be respected for a bronze shout, in addition to the names we saw in London finishing behind MHS (including Dobson). I feel like he is going to have to go another PB and probably a 2 tenths PB to medal.