SalamAkhi

It seems Jéssica Carolina Santos Rodrigues (or any other Portuguese skater) doesn't meet any required standard time to qualify. She needs 39''50 or 1'18''00 by mid-January, with SB/PB of 40''04 and 1'18''82. Same goes for Philip Due Schmidt . Don't know if ISU will give them some slack, if not they'll need to chase those qualifying times. If they fail to reach them, how will the quota be redistributed ? Logically R1 would be awarded a "direct" spot, which would change things as wR1 is Nizan and mR1 is Yakubovskiy two countries with only one quota spot. France would get a second quota, allowing them to enter two athletes and obtain a second starter in the MS (with already one additional quota). Kazakhstan would be able to enter a second skater (presumably Yakubovskiy) who could take part to the MS (at the moment they potentially could obtain an additional quota, but Koshkin probably won't participate in the MS).

I've seen some talks about Stolz going for an Heiden in Milan. He definitely won't win 5 individual races, nobody could today. But with the mass-start under his belt he only needs one more chance ... Of course the team pursuit looks like the easy answer, as his qualities sure wouldn't hurt an already dominant squad, would they ? Put him in one of the three races to gold and have yourself a 5-time Olympic champion.

Italy is not less cynical than any other. Jorginho, Kamil Rychlicki, Andy Diaz Hernandez, Zane Weir, Nick Ponzio, Donte DiVincenzo (no they're not Italian, as much as Fournier-Beaudry is not French). I could probably go on.

Inzell is not in talks. Turin would be the obvious choice to keep the sport close to the heartland of those already widespread Games, while Heerenveen is probably the worst option if we only look at this one fortnight (further from southeast France, almost Dutch-only attendance). But for that option to be seriously considered the upside must be significant. If the (probably) strongest French Olympic delegation of the sport has to become the first one to contest its home Olympics in another country, then at least offer them some benefits.

It looks like Heerenveen has the edge. There were talks backstage during the WC at Thialf and I assume the Netherlands will offer some interesting favors to the French federation as a reward for this once in a lifetime chance of hosting the Games. French skaters will probably relocate there and benefit from the installations. We'll know soon enough.

Sooooo, after day 2 : No change. To clarify, Thorup confirmed she was not going to the Games. But she still collected three quota for that can be used by any other athlete. Still, Lindenskov has not achieved any minimum qualification time so she's not eligible. Braun just had to finish the race. She could have started and bailed out like a couple of skaters did in the 500m. But she went all the way and got DQed So only one Polish skater and Smedding is in (she would have received an additional quota anyways). Horikawa was given the huge edge of starting in A division thanks to a couple of Dutch skips. Despite running 3s slower than Yang she still retrieved a comfortable amount of points to secure her spot. Yang benefited from the quartets but things could have gone to the wire if they ran in the same division. Italy not starting. Failing to qualify while they only had to be top 12 (with 14 teams competing) is a huge blow. Nope Nope Nope It was tense. Before last pair Semirunniy Lorello and Snellink (in that order with the tie breaker rule) were tied with 110 points, ahead of Henriksen. Meaning that Semirunniy was in and Snellink in too but only in the SOQT ranking, thus depriving the Netherlands of their 9th man. But Eitrem, ranking 0.07 ahead of Semirunniy, and a few seconds later Dawson, 0.10 ahead of Lorello, reshuffled the rankings completely, saving both countryman Henriksen and Dutch matrix selectors. So Semirunniy, as the world leader in the 10k (not the same event indeed) and 4th of one of the three WC qualifying races is not going to race in Milano. I guess the easy answer is to put that on him. But Sasaki, with 6'21, 13'30 and 6'21 is qualified, because he managed to be a tad faster in the first race of the season on the fastest track in the world. Semirunniy mismanaged his efforts in a flawed system that allows time quota in a World Cup circuit with huge track discrepancies, which works with unfair divisions rewarding way too much already established athletes. Like, look at those injured skaters not even going a hundred meters banking more points than 95% of B division, and yet still taking a spot next week. Erin Jackson could pull this till the end of the season and remain top 16.

Qualification status that could realistically change this week, barring (except where noted) new time qualifying performances : Men 500m : pretty much done 1000m : pretty much done 1500m : pretty much done 5000m : one outlier at the moment Semirunniy. He's currently not qualified for the distance being 18/15 in the rankings and R1 time-wise. He could still punch his ticket : either by getting into the top 15 with a very good result (a podium or even a win would be needed). If it is at the expanse of Henriksen or, less likely, Swings, then the loser is out. If it is at the expanse of any other, then Sasaki is out. or by hoping Lorello gets into the top 15 at the expanse of Henriksen or Swings. or by going faster than Sasaki (6'08''834) which seems reachable after his 10k, even in Hamar. 10000m : once again Henriksen is on the bubble. If Maly, Petzold of Farthofer gets into the top 9 at the expanse of Malfatti or Snellink, then he's out. Mass-start : not much at stake considering most of the reserve skaters will already receive an additional quota - at the moment . Morino will try to enter top 32 and be in those additional quota spots. Team pursuit : pretty much done Women 500m : pretty much done 1000m : with Thorup not cleared to participate one more spot is up for grabs. Scholz would need to be in front of both Herzog (done as she's not entered) and Czerwonka (7 points) after this final week. Silaeva would be left out. 1500m : Lamarche not competing and Zofia Braun being promoted to A division, Poland has got a real shot at a second quota. Braun will need to stay in front of Scholz and Weidemann, who could still finish ahead of her depending on how good Braun fares in A division. Smedding would suffer from a Polish rise. 3000m : match-up between Yang and Horikawa only separated by 3 points. At the moment Yang is out (R2) but if they exchange position in the standings then Horikawa is out (R1). They could also both finish ahead of Hofmann, at the expanse of Golubeva ultimately. Jasch has a small shot at a second German quota too, by edging the former two skaters, eliminating them. 5000m : pretty much done Mass-start : Santo Rodrigues is hanging on by a thread. The cruelty of it is that those immediately behind her - - will get an aditional spot anyways, so it does not really matter if they finish in the top 24 ahead of her, except it would allow France to enter a second skater and two girls in the MS. Team pursuit : three-way asymetrical tie for the last SOQP spot between and , all in division A. Norway needs to beat both as they can't rely on a time Q, Kazakhstan needs to beat Norway to ensure (if they fail to beat China) the first SOQT spot and avoid the Italian wild-card*, whereas China is pretty safe. * is currently out but they "only" need to get into a reserve spot to be qualified, which is going faster than 3'00'92 (or faster than Norway if they too decide to skate faster). They were not far off this mark in Hamar earlier this year but the team was in a better shape overall.

In the 5000 she probably won't (first alternate at the moment). What are the chances of the matrix "prioritizing" a mTP squad ?

I don't see most of the NOC sleeping on (so many) substitutes. France will definitely select 5 guys for the sake of the team pursuit (even if one of them will probably not start any event) and as a "reward" (as Trebouta maybe missed a 10k ticket through misfortune). Belgium will take 3 guys (Vosté 1000/1500, Swings 5k/10k/MS and Médard MS). And thanks to additional quotas Austria for example will most likely get a second starter in the wMS, who won't be Herzog, so Molnar would get a berth too.

What do you mean by "expected" quota ? How many skaters the NOC will eventually register ?

Liu fell 8 minutes in, a hard fall it seems which prevented the race from going on. The three skaters (Lorello Bosker and Trebouta ) will get a rerun tonight. As the Netherlands and Italy already have two guys in qualifying spots this is not a disaster for them. But Trebouta will now start another 10000 with 15 laps in the legs, alone in his pair, aiming for 12'49 to qualify. We'll never know what he would have done in those last laps but he was on pace to at least approach this time.

AIN berths could be rejected ? They were pretty safe as far as I understand.

Violette Braun 6'57 over 5000m is the best ever u20 time at sea-level. She's now very close to clinching a spot at the Olympics in the 3000m, which would be the first time a Frenchwoman qualified since 1988. What is more impressive is that 14 months ago, her name was absent of any speed skating database, as she had never started a race on ice of her life.

We're somehow still in the game to qualify the women's relay. Barring a major upset, the 8th spot will be disputed between and qualify if : they finish ahead of Poland they finish 8th and Poland finishes 7th qualify if : they finish ahead of France and above or equal 5th Tie if : Poland finishes 6th and France 7th Don't know how the tie is supposed to be broken. Poland would have the 4th best result (which is not counted initially) and the best last race, so ... Now if both teams were to be sent to Final B (likely) France could pull an ultimate bitch move : bring Poland down to ensure a positive outcome Poland is definitely stronger overall and can close faster, but this is short-track.

Le retour. Les quotas sont déjà plus ou moins acquis dans les sports de neige, mais les qualifications sont en cours au niveau de la glace. Short-track (étape 3/4) : 4 athlètes, 10 quotas individuels Epreuve Hommes Femmes 500 0 2 1000 2 2 1500 2 2 Relais Non Non Mixte Oui Ca avait commencé doucement à Montréal sur la première étape, un peu mieux sur la deuxième, ce qui laissait augurer un bon retour en Europe. Que nenni, troisième étape compliquée ce week-end en Pologne, même si on ne s'en sort finalement pas si mal. Quentin Fercoq, le leader de l'équipe est à la rue, et on risque de ne pas avoir de quota sur 500m masculin (distance où il a été médaillé mondial). Il peut encore gratter une place au bénéfice d'un bon dernier week-end mais il va être mal placé au départ de son 500 (quasiment rédhibitoire). Les deux départs individuels sur 1000 et 1500 semblent assurés. Chez les filles on a récupéré un deuxième départ sur 500 (de 1 à 2), et perdu un sur 1500 (de 3 à 2 ce qui fait perdre une athlète à inscrire). On devrait réussir à garder deux départs par course. On a aussi fait un rapproché sur le relais au gré des chutes et des disqualifications (9ème pour 8 qualifiés) et mine de rien, avec le retrait du plus mauvais résultat à l'issue de la dernière étape on a notre destin entre nos mains (il faudra se comparer avec la Pologne). Le relais mixte sera qualifié. Patinage de vitesse (étape 2/4) : 5 athlètes, 5 quotas individuels Epreuve Hommes Femmes 500 0 0 1000 0 0 1500 1 0 3000/5000 1 1 5000/10000 1 0 Mass-start 1 0 Poursuite Oui Non Au bénéfice de son podium la poursuite par équipe masculine a validé son billet, ce qui assure trois athlètes à minima au départ à Milan. Logiquement 4 quotas individuels = 4 athlètes à inscrire chez les hommes, il faudrait que Belloir repasse dans les qualifiables sur la mass-start pour en avoir un cinquième, sachant qu'on pourra normalement aligner un deuxième coureur sur la mass-start en "bonus" même sans avoir deux quotas basiques. Les quotas individuels sont relativement sûrs et on n'ira pas en chercher d'autres normalement. Côté filles le quota de Braun sur 3000 est à confirmer mais elle est plutôt en bonne posture sans forcément avoir son destin entre ses mains. Il faudrait aller chercher un quota sur la mass-start pour obtenir une deuxième fille à inscrire et potentiellement deux départs sur cette épreuve (encore une fois quota bonus). Bobsleigh (étape 1/7) : 6 athlètes, 4 quotas Epreuve Hommes Femmes Monobob - 1 Bob à 2 1 1 Bob à 4 1 - Romain Heinrich et Margot Boch devraient sans trop de problèmes assurer leur place dans les deux épreuves. D'autres équipages seront alignés plutôt en Coupe d'Europe, ce qui reste un moyen d'optimiser son classement, et ça sera à suivre. Chez les hommes avec le système de qualification qui mêle bob à 2 et bob à 4 il y a moins de prétendants puisque les équipages qui ne s'alignent pas à 4 sont hors course. Skeleton (étape 1/7) : 1 athlète, 1 quota Deux athlètes sur le circuit, et comme expliqué au-dessus c'est paradoxalement celui engagé sur la coupe Nord-Américaine qui est le mieux placé, en l'occurrence Lucas Defayet, qui a gagné deux courses à Whistler. Une victoire sur les circuits secondaires (NorAm, Europe et Asie) rapporte l'équivalent d'une 13ème place en WC, ce qui est largement suffisant pour aller chercher son ticket. Le classement n'étant mis à jour qu'après chaque étape de WC il a une "course d'avance". Il va enchaîner à Park City et s'il aligne encore encore deux succès il aura déjà enregistré quatre courses bien solides sur les sept nécessaires au ranking. Autrement dit le job sera quasiment fait avant de revenir je présume sur la Coupe du Monde. Maxime Mingeon a fait la WC de Cortina mais il va redescendre en CE pour la suite, il ne se qualifiera probablement pas.