NZL
We have drastically less chances with mass retirements than before and I don't really hold much hope with matching the dizzying heights of 2021.
So here goes...
Lisa Carrington K1 500m - is the big favourite. Now this is an interesting one because if fellow NZer Aimee Fisher decides to get over her issues with Canoe Racing NZ which it sounds like they're coming into an agreement NZ could go 1-2 in this event and Aimee has beaten Lisa at Nationals, and is the only one that has come close on multiple occasions since this olympic cycle.
Lisa Carrington Alicia Hoskin/Aimee Fisher K2 500m - Lisa and Alicia have improved dramatically since last year but are very much beatable. Rumours are that both Lisa and Aimee could very well pair up and have tried this week before heading off to Europe and their timings already are mind-boggling... But we want to see it to believe it.
NZ Womens 7s team - They're that good that they could field an A or B team and still win 99% of the time but there's always that off chance that an upset is around the corner. But anything less than a gold is a tragedy.
NZ Mens 7s team - There's considerably more depth on the men's side internationally but with a young team who have already won the World 7s series they have the potential to take out Fiji.
Number 5 could be one of so many from multiple rowing teams and individuals, track cycling teams, Hayden Wilde - triathlon, multiple sailing individuals and crews that none of them are clear favorites in their event. But can also not win a medal. It's probably going to be the first olympics where we have no outright rowing or sailing crews as gold medal favs in 20 years. So who really knows.