dcmdtruefan

In terms of the performances of the major countries in the 2025 Sea Games and how it related to their readiness for LA 2028, I think for the most part, while it might be too premature to predict how each of the regional powerhouses will preform in LA, we can start to see the formation of the core events and athletes in which each nation may have a chance to be successful at. For the host, Thailand, per usual, they have done well with boxing, weightlifting and taekwondo, while maintaining its level of excellence in badminton. Thailand will largely look at those 4 aforementioned sports as its main hopes for success for the 2026 Asian Games and 2028 Olympics. The key becomes how they can maintain the performance levels of key athletes while adding some depth to their team. Thailand also has hopes in women's golf with Jeeno Thitikul being the world no. 1 ranked golfer. The other issue for Thailand is related how it can parlay its success in other sports and elevate them to at least the level of being in the top 8 or top 10 in certain events in the very least. Such sports include track and field, swimming, gymnastics, table tennis. For Indonesia, I think they have gradually develop their depth and profiency in olympic sports events with their athletics and swimming team getting better. Their olympic hopes will likely fall in the same sports they have done well in 2024 which is badminton, speed climbing and men's weightlifting with archery being a darkhorse. Malaysia's slight decline in track cycling and diving in the world level means that they have to rely on badminton for its first ever gold medal. Philippines and Singapore seem to its olympics medal dreams rely on a single person (i.e. Yulo, Maeder) as while there is improvement in its overall olympic program, they only have a few athletes that they can rely on for a medal. Vietnam deservedly is in second place in the olympic events medal tally as it has done well in the major sports. However, they seem to struggle to find an athlete that can be good in the global level, hence why they haven't won an Olympic medal in the past two editions. A lot can change in 2.5 years. And as well as Thailand did in this past Sea games, there is a chance they might do as well in 2027 as they have to compete outside of their home country. And a declining performance might indicate a decline of their olympic sports program that may affect how it will do in 2028.

I like to take my next and last two posts on this topic to give my last takes on the just concluded SEA Games in Thailand. My last takes include the issue of the selection of sport events and the current LA 2028 outlook for each major country in the region as well as what Thailand's lack of readiness in hosting the event reveals about the state of the country. For this post, I will discuss the first two topics. Prior to the opening of the 2025 Sea Games, I have written a post about how the selection of sport events, in particular Olympic sports events, did not promote competitiveness in a fair manner as it omitted a number of Olympic events that Thailand was infrerior to its neighbors. Such omission of Olympic events could be seen in the exclusion of the team and all around events in artistic gymnastics as well as in the canoe sprint, cycling, diving and judo events that were left out. I also have noted that such practice has also been done by previous hosts. In 2017, while Malaysia hosted a full set of Olympic events in track cycling and diving, which they were good at, they omitted a number of Olympic events in judo, fencing, boxing and weightlifting while not hosting any rowing, wrestling, or canoeing events at all. In 2019, Philippines neglected a bunch of rowing, canoeing, cycling, sailing and table tennis events. In 2022, Vietnam omitted a number of shooting and canoeing events, while not hosting any sailing, equestrian or rugby events. To me, all countries should admit they have a part of such bad practice because it is the beginning to a solution to the problem of the host cherrypicking certain Olympic events that it wants to stage and neglected ones that they are not good at. I have previously mentioned how after the 2023 Sea games in Cambodia, the Sea games charter tried to solve such issue by placing a minimum amount of Olympic Sports that would be hosted in a sea games as well as placing a maximum amount towards the non-Olympic sports that can be hosted. This solution does not solve the core problem of the selection of the sports events in the Sea Games because it does not directly deal with the issue of the host being able to include events in certain sports that they are good at, but omitting the events within similar sports that they may not be good at. My own solution to the issue is to have an events-based solution rather than a sports-based solution. My solution is to have a requirement that a sea games host must held at least about 85 % or 90 % of the Olympic events of the subsequent Summer Olympics edition. For instance, the 2027 Sea games host must held 85 percent of the 353 events that will be competed in Los Angeles in 2028. 85% of 353 rounds up to a number of about 300 events. If a host, in this case, Malaysia cannot host certain events for reasons of lack of facilities or financial costs, it could loan out some of the events to neigboring countries to be a co-host in certain sports. For instance, as of now, Malaysia will not host certain sports like rowing, canoeing, wrestling, handball, skateboarding, sport climbing, etc. Malaysia can loan out those sports events for Thailand or Singapore to host them to ensure that it will a number of adequate amount of Olympic events will be held in the Sea games. If a host refuses such arrangement and is not able to host a minimum amount of olympic events, then their hosting rights must be stripped away. The 85/90 percent olympic event requirement was a way to ensure that the standardization of olympic events in the sea games is about as equatable to that of the Asian Games, which usually hosts at leat 90 percent of the Olympic events that will be held.

Just got some free time during the holidays to post after taking the past week to sleep in quite a bit. As I have stated just before the beginning of the SEA Games, that I will complied and post the Olympic events tally for event, so here it is: Road to LA 2028: 2025 SEA Games Olympic Events Medal Tally Rank Country Gold Silver Bronze Total 1 Thailand 87 69 54 210 2 Vietnam 46 41 55 142 3 Indonesia 41 48 58 148 4 Singapore 40 32 35 107 5 Philippines 27 38 63 128 6 Malaysia 27 30 41 98 7 Myanmar 0 5 12 17 8 Timor-Leste 0 1 3 4 9 Laos 0 1 2 3 10 Brunei 0 0 0 0 Total 268 265 323 856 * Note # 1: 267 Olympic events out of the 353 events from the LA 2028 games were planned for competition. 266 were competed as women's kiteboarding was cancelled due to having less than 3 competitiors for the event. * Note # 2: Two events had two winners due to being tied in points. Those two events were in the horizontal bar and vault events in men's gymnastics. * Note # 3: Modern Pentathlon was featured in the 2025 SEA Games. But just like in the 2019 edition, it did not have any Olympic events as none of the competed events composed of all of the events that made up the Olympic format of the sport. In the three events that was held for modern pentathlon in the SEA Games, none of them featured fencing, therefore I can't count any of those competed events in the Olympic event medal tally. And here is the medal tally broken down by sport: 1a. Aquatics-Artistic Swimming (2 events): 1. Singapore 1-1-0 1. Thailand 1-1-0 3. Indonesia 0-0-2 1b. Aquatics-Diving (3): 1. Malaysia 2-0-0 2. Thailand 1-1-0 3. Singapore 0-2-1 4. Indonesia 0-0-1 4. Vietnam 0-0-1 1c. Aquatics-Swimming (40): 1. Singapore 19-9-8 2. Thailand 7-7-9 3. Vietnam 6-10-11 4. Philippines 3-9-2 5. Indonesia 3-3-5 6. Malaysia 2-3-5 1d. Aquatics-Water Polo (2): 1. Singapore 1-1-0 2. Thailand 1-0-1 3. Indonesia 0-1-1 2. Archery (6): 1. Indonesia 4-0-2 2. Singapore 1-0-0 2. Thailand 1-0-0 4. Vietnam 0-3-3 5. Malaysia 0-3-1 3. Athletics/Track and Field (47): 1. Thailand 13-13-4 2. Vietnam 12-12-10 3. Indonesia 9-5-6 4. Philippines 5-7-19 5. Malaysia 5-5-6 6. Singapore 3-3-3 7. Myanmar 0-2-0 4. Badminton (5): 1. Indonesia 2-2-4 2. Thailand 2-2-0 3. Malaysia 1-1-5 4. Vietnam 0-0-1 5a. Basketball 5x5 (2): 1. Philippines 2-0-0 2. Thailand 0-2-0 3. Indonesia 0-0-2 5b. Basketball 3x3 (2): 1. Thailand 1-1-0 2. Indonesia 1-0-0 3. Singapore 0-1-0 4. Malaysia 0-0-2 6. Boxing (11): 1. Thailand 9-1-1 2. Philippines 1-2-3 3. Vietnam 1-2-2 4. Indonesia 0-3-3 5. Singapore 0-2-2 6. Timor-Leste 0-1-2 7. Myanmar 0-0-5 8. Laos 0-0-1 8. Malaysia 0-0-1 7. Canoeing (5): 1. Thailand 4-1-0 2. Vietnam 1-0-0 3. Indonesia 0-4-1 4. Malaysia 0-0-3 5. Myanmar 0-0-1 8. Cycling (8): 1. Thailand 4-5-2 2. Malaysia 3-1-0 3. Indonesia 1-1-2 4. Laos 0-1-0 5. Philippines 0-0-1 5. Vietnam 0-0-1 9. Equestrian (6): 1. Thailand 3-2-1 2. Indonesia 2-2-2 3. Malaysia 1-1-1 4. Philippines 0-1-0 5. Myanmar 0-0-1 5. Singapore 0-0-1 10. Fencing (12): 1. Singapore 8-3-2 2. Vietnam 3-2-5 3. Thailand 1-3-6 4. Philippines 0-2-11 5. Malaysia 0-2-0 11. Field Hockey (2): 1. Malaysia 2-0-0 2. Indonesia 0-1-1 2. Thailand 0-1-1 4. Singapore 0-0-2 12. Football (2): 1. Vietnam 1-1-0 2. Philippines 1-0-0 3. Thailand 0-1-1 4. Malaysia 0-0-1 13. Golf (2): 1. Thailand 2-1-1 2. Vietnam 0-1-1 14. Gymnastics (12): 1. Thailand 4-0-2 2. Malaysia 3-2-3 3. Philippines 3-1-4 4. Vietnam 3-1-1 5. Indonesia 1-2-1 6. Singapore 0-4-1 15. Handball (2): 1. Thailand 1-1-0 1. Vietnam 1-1-0 3. Singapore 0-0-2 4. Indonesia 0-0-1 4. Philippines 0-0-1 16. Judo (9): 1. Thailand 3-2-2 2. Indonesia 3-2-1 3. Philippines 2-3-0 4. Malaysia 1-0-2 5. Vietnam 0-1-8 6. Myanmar 0-1-1 7. Singapore 0-0-3 17. Rowing (7): 1. Thailand 2-4-1 2. Indonesia 2-2-1 3. Vietnam 2-0-1 4. Philippines 1-0-4 5. Myanmar 0-1-0 18. Rugby (2): 1. Thailand 2-0-0 2. Singapore 0-1-1 3. Malaysia 0-1-0 4. Philippines 0-0-1 19. Sailing (7): 1. Singapore 3-2-0 2. Thailand 3-1-2 3. Malaysia 0-3-0 4. Philippines 0-0-4; Cancelled-1 event (Women's Kiteboarding) 20. Shooting (13): 1. Vietnam 4-3-1 2. Malaysia 4-0-4 3. Indonesia 3-4-4 4. Thailand 1-2-3 5. Singapore 1-1-2 6. Philippines 0-3-1 21. Skateboarding (4): 1. Philippines 2-1-0 2. Thailand 1-2-4 3. Indonesia 1-1-0 22. Sport Climbing (6): 1. Indonesia 4-3-1 2. Thailand 2-2-3 3. Singapore 0-1-1 4. Philippines 0-0-1 23. Table Tennis (5): 1. Singapore 3-0-2 2. Thailand 2-2-2 3. Malaysia 0-2-3 4. Indonesia 0-1-1 5. Vietnam 0-0-2 24. Taekwondo (8): 1. Thailand 5-2-1 2. Vietnam 2-1-2 3. Philippines 1-2-1 4. Myanmar 0-1-3 4. Indonesia 0-1-3 6. Malaysia 0-1-2 7. Timor-Leste 0-0-1 25. Tennis (5): 1. Thailand 3-5-1 2. Indonesia 1-0-6 3. Philippines 1-0-2 4. Malaysia 0-0-1 26. Triathlon (3): 1. Indonesia 2-1-0 2. Philippines 1-2-1 3. Malaysia 0-0-1 4. Singapore 0-0-1 27a. Indoor Volleyball (2): 1. Thailand 2-0-0 2. Indonesia 0-1-1 3. Vietnam 0-1-0 4. Philippines 0-0-1 27b. Beach Volleyball (2): 1. Indonesia 1-0-0 1. Philippines 1-0-0 3. Thailand 0-2-0 4. Vietnam 0-0-2 28. Weightlifting (5): 1. Thailand 5-0-0 2. Indonesia 0-2-1 3. Malaysia 0-2-0 4. Vietnam 0-1-2 5. Myanmar 0-0-1 5. Philippines 0-0-1 29. Wrestling (12): 1. Vietnam 10-1-1 2. Indonesia 1-6-3 3. Philippines 1-4-3 4. Thailand 0-1-5 5. Laos 0-0-1 30. Baseball & Softball (2): 1. Philippines 2-0-0 2. Thailand 0-1-1 3. Singapore 0-1-0 4. Indonesia 0-0-1 31. Cricket (2): 1. Malaysia 1-1-0 2. Thailand 1-0-0 3. Philippines 0-1-0 4. Indonesia 0-0-1 5. Singapore 0-0-1 32. Squash (2): 1. Malaysia 2-2-0 2. Philippines 0-0-2 2. Singapore 0-0-2

For the summary and lowlights of Thailand's preparation in hosting the ongoing Sea Games, I kindly suggest those who are interested to read from this English language article from Thai media outlet, Thai Enquirer: https://www.thaienquirer.com/63469/thailands-sea-games-2025-under-fire-budget-management-and-technical-controversies/

After looking at the entry list of athletes in the official website, I've changed some of my predictions in the Olympic events with these changes: Total Tally: Thailand 87, Singapore 51, Vietnam 48, Indonesia 33, Philippines 24, Malaysia 22, Cambodia 1 Badminton (5): Malaysia 2, Thailand 1, Singapore 1, Indonesia 1 Men’s Singles: Switched from Thailand to Singapore Boxing (11): Thailand 8, Philippines 2, Vietnam 1 Men: -54 kg (-55 kg): Thailand, -60 kg: Thailand, -63.5 kg (-65 kg): Thailand, -69 kg (-70 kg): Thailand, -80 kg: Philippines Women: -50 kg (-51 kg): Thailand, -54 kg: Thailand, -57 kg: Thailand, -60 kg: Vietnam, -66 kg (-65 kg): Thailand, -70 kg: Philippines Sailing (7): Thailand 4, Singapore 2, Malaysia 1 ICLA 6: Switched from Thailand to Malaysia Taekwondo (8): Thailand 6, Vietnam 2 -67 kg: Switched from Vietnam to Thailand Weightlifting (5): Thailand 2, Philippines 1, Indonesia 1, Malaysia 1 Men: -65 kg: Malaysia, -94 kg (-95 kg): Thailand Women: -53 kg: Thailand, -69 kg: Philippines, -77 kg: Indonesia * I saw that they have actually change the weight categories to almost match that of IWF newly introduced categories from several months ago. Wrestling (12): Vietnam 7, Philippines 3, Indonesia 2 Men's Freestyle: -57 kg: Philippines, -65 kg: Vietnam, -74 kg: Vietnam, -86 kg: Philippines Men's Greco-Roman: -67 kg: Indonesia, -77 kg: Vietnam, -87 kg: Indonesia, -97 kg: Vietnam Women's Freestyle: -50 kg: Vietnam, -53 kg: Vietnam, -57 kg: Vietnam, -62 kg: Philippines

Yeah. It was pretty bad that they cancel the contract with the original creative director after 7 months of work. I feel like politics, in this particular context of the changing of prime minister and the cabinet, may had caused changes in organizational decisions regarding the Sea Games including the direction of the opening ceremony.

Based on the list of sports that you mentioned, fencing and rugby sevens appears to have a calendar years that straddles between two different years. For fencing, if you got to the results and competition portion of the FIE website, on the right hand side where it says seasons, it would show seasons in two straddling years: https://fie.org/competitions For rugby sevens, at least for the world sevens series, a season of the competition is competed in two straddling years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SVNS Besides those examples that you mentioned, most of the summer Olympic sports is competed in seasons of one year instead of two different years. I think the reason for that is summer sports have a longer duration of activity in comparison to winter sports due to climate related reasons. For summer sports, those competitions can be pratically held in any climate environment, lending itself for competitions to be able to be held for the majority of one calendar year. Meanwhile, winter sports are usually able to be held in only winter climates with the exception of some of the indoor sports. Hence, competition are usually from late fall/early winter towards the end of the winter season. Thus, the need of a season that straddles through two different years.

I can see Indonesia's athletics and swimming teams doing slightly better than in 2023 since their junior teams are improving and they have facilities from the 2018 Asian Games that are conducive to some quality training. However, it will take time from them to challenge the top 2 spots in the medal tally of those respective sports, perhaps by 2029. I think archery and tennis will be some of the Indonesia's best performing Olympic sports in this year's Sea Games. I think their men's football and volleyball teams has a 50-50 chance to defend their gold medals. In terms of badminton, I don't think the Thai players are too ethusiastic in competing in the Sea Games, especially the ones who are qualified to compete in the world tour finals. They know that the Thai sports authorities and badminton association are calling them up so they can fulfill their gold medal targets and KPI goals so the governing body can get more government funding. I can tell you based on social media updates that Kunlavut Vitidsarn is not going to compete in the individual event as he stated as such to Thai media as of yesterday. He stated that he will only compete in the team event as he is recovering from his wisdom tooth surgery weeks ago and is only 80 percent fit at the moment and wants to preserve his health for the world tour finals. I am happy about that and I hope that the other Thais such as Pornpawee, Dechapol, Supissara and Ratchanok will follow suit and not compete in the individual events because the Sea Games is really a venue for the youngsters and the more accomplished players should focus on the world tour finals.

As you said, the Indonesian youth climbers are still good enough to win the speed events. The quote from the Indonesian sport climbing federations makes me see that there are more political machinations behind the scenes, especially from the host country, more than I realized in terms of coercing others into who they can or can't send to the competition. I don't like it, but I guess is a part of life especially in the region that is known for underhanded/indirect dealings in terms of governance.

Any predictions on how well Indonesia will do in the sea games, especially in Olympic events?

Some Thai made a joke online by saying that the name of the soundtrack music for this year's Sea Games, which is titled "1 Percent", actually refers to the amount of preaparation and readiness that the Thai organization has in hosting the Sea Games. Many Thais know that they like to prepare things in the last minute. It's bascially a cultural thing. All that Thailand has is their claim to be the host that cheats the least and actually hosts the most Olympic sports events among the Sea game shost countries. And if they're willing to list to online voices from foreign sources, they are going to have to accept that such belief is not true anymore. I think the challenge for most Thais is to accept that their country is actually not that different from others in terms of earnestness in hosting sports events and that they have taken short cuts such as cutting a number of olympic sports events from this year's competition. It doesn't help that the Thai media does not like to report negative stuff about Thai governing sports bodies. For instance, Thai media has omitted the true reason why Carlos Yulo has withdrawn from this year's competition. The Thai media simply states that he chose to skip these games.

As I have stated earlier I would write up my SEA Games predictions for the Olympic sport events. Here is my detalied predictions with the name of the country winning in each of the 262 Olympic events hosted in LA 2028 and 5 weighlifting events hosted in Paris 2024 Total: Thailand 90, Singapore 50, Vietnam 47, Indonesia 33, Philippines 24, Malaysia 20, Cambodia 2 Aquatics-Artistic Swimming (2): Singapore 1, Thailand 1 W: Duet: Singapore; MX: Team: Thailand Aquatics-Diving (3): Malaysia 2, Thailand 1 Men: 3 m Springboard: Thailand, Synchronized 3 m: Malaysia Women: Synchronized 10 m: Malaysia Aquatics-Swimming (40): Singapore 24, Vietnam 6, Philippines 4, Thailand 3, Malaysia 2, Indonesia 1 Men: 50 m Freestyle: Singapore, 100 m Freestyle: Singapore, 200 m Freestyle: Malaysia, 400 m Freestyle: Malaysia, 1,500 m Freestyle: Vietnam, 50 m Backstroke: Singapore, 100 m Backstroke: Singapore, 200 m Backstroke: Singapore, 50 m Breaststroke: Indonesia, 100 m Breaststroke: Vietnam, 200 m Breaststroke: Vietnam, 50 m Butterfly: Singapore, 100 m Butterfly: Singapore, 200 m Butterfly: Thailand, 200 m Individual Medley: Vietnam, 400 m Individual Medley: Vietnam, 4 x 100 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 200 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 100 m Medley Relay: Singapore, 10 km Open Water: Vietnam Women: 50 m Freestyle: Singapore, 100 m Freestyle: Philippines, 200 m Freestyle: Singapore, 400 m Freestyle: Singapore, 800 m Freestyle: Singapore, 50 m Backstroke: Philippines, 100 m Backstroke: Philippines, 200 m Backstroke: Philippines, 50 m Breaststroke: Singapore, 100 m Breaststroke: Singapore, 200 m Breaststroke: Singapore, 50 m Butterfly: Singapore, 100 m Butterfly: Singapore, 200 m Butterfly: Thailand, 200 m Individual Medley: Singapore, 400 m Individual Medley: Thailand, 4 x 100 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 200 m Freestyle Relay: Singapore, 4 x 100 m Medley Relay: Singapore, 10 km Open Water: Singapore Aquatics-Water Polo (2): Singapore 1, Thailand 1 Men’s Team: Singapore; Women’s Team: Thailand Archery (6): Indonesia 4, Vietnam 1 Men: Olympic Recurve Individual: Indonesia, Olympic Recurve Team: Indonesia Women: Olympic Recurve Individual: Indonesia, Olympic Recurve Team: Indonesia Mixed: Olympic Recurve Team: Vietnam, Olympic Compound Team: Indonesia Athletics (47): Thailand 15, Vietnam 15, Indonesia 7, Philippines 4, Singapore 4, Malaysia 2 Men: 100 m: Thailand, 200 m: Thailand, 400 m: Vietnam, 800 m: Malaysia, 1,500 m: Thailand, 5,000 m: Thailand, 10,000 m: Thailand, 3,000 m Steeplechase: Vietnam, 110 m Hurdles: Singapore, 400 m Hurdles: Singapore, 4 x 100 m Relay: Thailand, 4 x 400 m Relay: Vietnam, Marathon: Indonesia, 20 km Walk: Indonesia, High Jump: Thailand, Pole Vault: Philippines, Long Jump: Vietnam, Triple Jump: Thailand, Shot Put: Philippines, Discus Throw: Malaysia, Hammer Throw: Thailand, Javelin Throw: Indonesia, Decathlon: Thailand Women: 100 m: Singapore, 200 m: Singapore, 400 m: Vietnam, 800 m: Vietnam, 1,500 m: Vietnam, 5,000 m: Vietnam, 10,000 m: Indonesia, 3,000 m Steeplechase: Vietnam, 100 m Hurdles: Indonesia, 400 m Hurdles: Philippines, 4 x 100 m Relay: Thailand, 4 x 400 m Relay: Vietnam, Marathon: Indonesia, 20 km Walk: Vietnam, High Jump: Vietnam, Pole Vault: Indonesia, Long Jump: Vietnam, Triple Jump: Vietnam, Shot Put: Thailand, Discus Throw: Thailand, Hammer Throw: Thailand, Javelin Throw: Thailand, Heptathlon: Philippines MX: 4 x 400 m Relay: Vietnam Badminton (5): Malaysia 2, Thailand 2, Indonesia 1 Men’s Singles: Thailand, Women’s Singles: Indonesia, Men’s Doubles: Malaysia, Women’s Doubles: Malaysia, Mixed Doubles: Thailand Basketball (2): Philippines 2 Men’s Team: Philippines, Women’s Team: Philippines Basketball 3x3 (2): Philippines 1, Thailand 1 Men’s 3x3 Team: Philippines, Women’s 3x3 Team: Thailand Boxing (11): Thailand 7, Philippines 4 Men: -57 kg (-55 kg): Philippines, -60 kg: Thailand, -63.5 kg (-65 kg): Thailand, -69 kg (-70 kg): Thailand, -80 kg: Philippines Women: -50 kg (-51 kg): Thailand, -54 kg: Thailand, -57 kg: Thailand, -60 kg: Philippines, -66 kg (-65 kg): Thailand, -70 kg: Philippines Canoeing (5): Thailand 4, Vietnam 1 Men: Slalom: C1: Thailand, K1: Thailand Women: Sprint: C2 500 m: Vietnam; Slalom: C1: Thailand, K1: Thailand Cycling (8): Thailand 5, Malaysia 3 Men: Road Race: Thailand, Time Trial: Thailand, Team Sprint: Malaysia, Team Pursuit: Malaysia, Keirin: Malaysia, BMX: Thailand Women: Road Race: Thailand, Time Trial: Thailand Equestrian (6): Thailand 5, Philippines 1 Mixed: Dressage Individual: Philippines, Dressage Team: Thailand, Eventing Individual: Thailand, Eventing Team: Thailand, Show Jumping Individual: Thailand, Show Jumping Team: Thailand Fencing (12): Singapore 9, Philippines 1, Thailand 1, Cambodia 1 Men: Eppe Individual: Singapore, Foil Individual: Philippines, Sabre Individual: Thailand, Eppe Team: Singapore, Foil Team: Singapore, Sabre Team: Singapore; Women: Eppe Individual: Singapore, Foil Individual: Cambodia, Sabre Individual: Singapore, Eppe Team: Singapore, Foil Team: Singapore, Sabre Team: Singapore Field Hockey (2): Malaysia 2 Men’s Team: Malaysia, Women’s Team: Malaysia Football (2): Thailand 1, Vietnam 1 Men’s Team: Thailand, Women’s Team: Vietnam Golf (2): Thailand 2 Men’s Individual: Thailand, Women’s Individual: Thailand Gymnastics (12): Vietnam 4, Singapore 2, Thailand 2, Malaysia 2, Philippines 1, Indonesia 1 Men: Floor Exercise: Thailand, Pommel Horse: Vietnam, Rings: Vietnam, Vault: Philippines, Parallel Bars: Vietnam, Horizontal Bar: Indonesia Women: Floor Exercise: Thailand, Vault: Vietnam, Uneven Bars: Malaysia, Balance Beam: Singapore, Rhythmic All-Around: Singapore, Rhythmic Group: Malaysia; Handball (2): Thailand 1, Vietnam 1 Men’s Team: Thailand; Women’s Team: Vietnam Judo (9): Thailand 6, Vietnam 2, Philippines 1 Men: -73 kg: Thailand, -81 kg: Thailand, -90 kg: Vietnam, -100 kg: Philippines Women: -57 kg: Vietnam, -70 kg: Thailand, -78 kg: Thailand, +78 kg: Thailand Mixed: Team: Thailand Rowing (7): Vietnam 3, Thailand 2, Indonesia 2 Men: Single Sculls: Indonesia, Double Sculls: Indonesia, Coastal Single Sculls: Thailand Women: Double Sculls: Vietnam, Quadruple Sculls: Vietnam, Fours: Vietnam, Coastal Single Sculls: Thailand Rugby (2): Thailand 2 Men’s Sevens: Thailand, Women’s Sevens: Thailand Sailing (7): Thailand 5, Singapore 2 Men: iqFoil: Thailand, ICLA 7: Singapore, Kiteboarding: Singapore Women: iqFoil: Thailand, ICLA 6: Thailand, Kiteboarding: Thailand Mixed: 470: Thailand Shooting (13): Thailand 4, Vietnam 3, Singapore 3, Malaysia 2, Indonesia 1 Men: Rifle 3x 40: Thailand, Air Pistol: Malaysia, 25 m Rapid Fire Pistol: Vietnam, Trap: Singapore, Skeet: Malaysia Women: Air Rifle: Thailand, Rifle 3x 40: Singapore, Air Pistol: Vietnam, 25 m Pistol: Vietnam, Trap: Thailand, Skeet: Thailand Mixed: Air Rifle Team: Singapore, Air Pistol Team: Indonesia Skateboarding (4): Indonesia 2, Thailand 1, Philippines 1 Men: Street: Indonesia, Park: Philippines Women: Street: Thailand, Park: Indonesia Sport Climbing (6): Indonesia 3, Thailand 2, Singapore 1 Men: Bouldering: Thailand, Lead: Thailand, Speed: Indonesia Women: Bouldering: Singapore, Lead: Indonesia, Speed: Indonesia Table Tennis (5): Singapore 3, Thailand 2 Men’s Singles: Singapore, Women’s Singles: Thailand, Men’s Doubles: Singapore, Women’s Doubles: Thailand, Mixed Doubles: Singapore Taekwondo (8): Thailand 5, Vietnam 3 Men: -58 kg: Thailand, -68 kg: Thailand, -80 kg: Thailand, -87 kg (+80 kg): Thailand Women: -49 kg: Thailand, -57 kg: Vietnam, -67 kg: Vietnam, -73 kg (+67 kg): Vietnam Tennis (5): Indonesia 3, Thailand 2 Men’s Singles: Thailand, Women’s Singles: Indonesia, Men’s Doubles: Thailand, Women’s Doubles: Indonesia, Mixed Doubles: Indonesia Triathlon (3): Indonesia 3 Men’s Individual: Indonesia, Women’s Individual: Indonesia, Mixed Relay Team: Indonesia Volleyball (2): Indonesia 1, Thailand 1 Men’s Team: Indonesia, Women’s Team: Thailand Beach Volleyball (2): Indonesia 1, Thailand 1 Men’s Beach: Indonesia, Women’s Beach: Thailand Weightlifting (5): Thailand 4, Philippines 1 Men: -61 kg: Thailand, -73 kg: Thailand Women: -49 kg: Thailand, -59 kg: Thailand, -71 kg: Philippines Wrestling (12): Vietnam 7, Indonesia 3, Philippines 1, Cambodia 1 Men's Freestyle: -57 kg: Philippines, -65 kg: Vietnam, -74 kg: Vietnam, -86 kg: Cambodia Men's Greco-Roman: -60 kg: Vietnam, -67 kg: Indonesia, -77 kg: Indonesia, -87 kg: Indonesia Women's Freestyle: -50 kg: Vietnam, -53 kg: Vietnam, -57 kg: Vietnam, -62 kg: Vietnam Baseball & Softball (2): Philippines 2 Men’s Baseball: Philippines, Women’s Softball: Philippines Cricket (2): Malaysia 1, Thailand 1 Men’s T20: Malaysia, Women’s T20: Thailand Squash (2): Malaysia 2 Men’s Singles: Malaysia, Women’s Singles: Malaysia Most of my predictions were made in combination of factors of performances in international competitions in 2025 as well as in the 2024 Olympics and the lastest SEA Games. Some sports that I don't have enough information to go by such as Judo or Wrestling has forced to make those predictions with a less than 50 percent certainty. About 2-3 months ago, I would have guess that Thailand's numbers would be nearer to 80 rather than 90 as their quality in major Olympic Sports (i.e. Athletics, Swimming, Shooting, Gymnastics) have declined over the past decade or so. According to my predictions, despite such struggles, Thailand's overall quality in other Olympic Sports is enough to paper through the cracks in the development of its Olympic sports program. It would be an embarassment to myself at least if Thailand is not able to win the gold medal count in either of the four major Olympic sports. Singapore would finish second due to its enormous strength in swmming as well as improving in athletics, gymnastics and shooting. I wouldn't expect Vietnam to win only 47 Olympic events as it has dominated the Olympic events count for the past three editions, but their lack of adequate funding may explain the reason of their potential underperformance in these predictions. Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines all have lower numbers of expected Olympic events won in this year's edition as they are impacted by the number of Olympic events that was cut from the SEA Games, especially in gymnastics, cycling, canoeing and rowing. If I have the time in the enxt week or so before the games begins, I will preview some of the key Olympic Sports hosted at Thailand with some highlights of interesting events and likely rising stars. And of course, at the end of the games, we will look back at how accurate my predictions are.

I have been gone for more than a month as I have been busy with work and studies. I have just finished an exam that has implications towards my efforts in attaining a work certification. Now, I have the time to write more about my thoughts about this year's SEA Games. As I have stated in my previous posts, I will write my predictions of the gold medal winners in the Olympic events in the SEA Games in the upcoming days. I don't want to predict the winners for the non-Olympic events because I don't have the desire to do research and make a prediction to who is going to win some event in Pencak Silat or Thai boxing. However, I want to give a historical context in the past 3-4 decades of the SEA Games medal tally in Olympic events in order to give some context to the performance trends of notable countries. Based on wikipedia research and sources, I was able to make a gold medal tally of Olympic events in the SEA Games from around 1985 until 2023. My artibrary definition of what counts as an Olympic event in each of the past SEA Games is that in what Olympic year is that particular SEA Games edition is preceding for. For instance, in an 1988 Olympic cycle, the preceding SEA Games editions were 1985 and 1987. Therefore, the olympic events for the 1985 and 1987 SEA Games will be ones that are listed in the 1988 Summer Olympics. So, here's the list of gold medal tallys in Olympic events in the past SEA Games editions since 1985: 1985-Thailand: Total (154 out of 237 Olympic events in 1988 hosted): Thailand 54, Indonesia 33, Philippines 27, Malaysia 20, Singapore 11, Burma 8, Not accounted 2 1987-Indonesia: Total (189/237): Indonesia 90, Philippines 31, Thailand 30, Malaysia 23, Singapore 9, Burma 6, Not accounted 1 1989-Malaysia: Total (182/257): Indonesia 65, Thailand 38, Malaysia 36, Philippines 18, Singapore 15, Myanmar 8, Brunei 1 1991-Philippines: Total (178/257): Indonesia 60, Thailand 47, Philippines 43, Malaysia 17, Myanmar 7, Singapore 3, Vietnam 2 1993-Singapore: Total (175/271): Indonesia 57, Thailand 40, Philippines 32, Malaysia 20, Singapore 18, Myanmar 6, Vietnam 2, Not accounted 1 1995-Thailand: Total (195/271): Thailand 96, Indonesia 44, Philippines 24, Malaysia 14, Singapore 14, Vietnam 4, Myanmar 1 1997-Indonesia: Total (249/291): Indonesia 108, Thailand 57, Malaysia 34, Philippines 27, Vietnam 13, Singapore 13 1999-Brunei: Total (122/300): Thailand 47, Malaysia 29, Indonesia 21, Singapore 13, Philippines 7, Vietnam 4, Laos 1 2001-Malaysia: Total (229/302): Thailand 80, Malaysia 58, Indonesia 41, Singapore 15, Philippines 13, Vietnam 11, Myanmar 9 2003-Vietnam: Total (234/301): Thailand 65, Vietnam 55, Indonesia 33, Malaysia 32, Philippines 27, Singapore 17, Myanmar 7 2005-Philippines: Total (233/302): Thailand 53, Philippines 44, Vietnam 34, Malaysia 33, Indonesia 31, Singapore 29, Myanmar 10 2007-Thailand: Total (254/302): Thailand 85, Malaysia 37, Vietnam 36, Indonesia 35, Singapore 30, Philippines 27, Myanmar 6 2009-Laos: Total (181/302): Thailand 44, Vietnam 27, Malaysia 26, Indonesia 26, Singapore 24, Philippines 21, Laos 7, Myanmar 5 2011-Indonesia: Total (254/302): Thailand 71, Indonesia 58, Vietnam 52, Malaysia 31, Singapore 27, Philippines 14, Myanmar 2, Laos 1 2013-Myanmar: Total (205/306): Thailand 58, Vietnam 31, Indonesia 29, Singapore 27, Malaysia 26, Philippines 18, Myanmar 12, Laos 4, Cambodia 3 2015-Singapore: Total (215/306): Vietnam 49, Thailand 45, Singapore 43, Malaysia 31, Indonesia 26, Philippines 19, Myanmar 3 2017-Malaysia: Total (207/340): Malaysia 54, Vietnam 45, Thailand 40, Singapore 32, Indonesia 21, Philippines 15, Myanmar 1, Cambodia 1 2019-Philippines: Total (227/339): Vietnam 53, Philippines 46, Thailand 43, Indonesia 37, Singapore 27, Malaysia 21, Cambodia 1 2022-Vietnam: Total (234/329): Vietnam 89, Thailand 42, Indonesia 31, Singapore 28, Philippines 25, Malaysia 21, Cambodia 1 2023-Cambodia: Total (196/329): Vietnam 48, Thailand 37, Singapore 37, Indonesia 27, Philippines 20, Malaysia 16, Cambodia 10, Myanmar 1 Note: The name of the host country of each listed edition is next to the year of that particular edition. Here is my observation and analysis of these numbers: Observations: The host country usuallly has a boost in their gold medal numbers in comparison of their usual performance outside of their home country. Indonesia dominated the Olympic events tally during the 1980's and early 1990's while only losing to Thailand when the latter gets to host the SEA Games. This trend correlates with the numbers of the actual overall SEA Games gold medal tally in which Indonesia wins about every one of them during the time period. Thailand dominated the tally by being the # 1 country from 1999-2013. Since then, it has been generally been either # 2 or # 3. This trend correlates with Thailand's performance in the overall tally which sees them usually in # 2 in editions hosted in major powerhouses and in # 1 in editions hosted in non-powerhouse countries such as in Laos, Brunei and Myanmar with the exception of 2015 in that Thailand won the overall tally in Singapore, but was only # 2 in the Olympic events tally. Vietnam has been the best performing country in the Olympic events tally since 2019. They have been usually in the top 3 since the 2003 edition. Analysis of trends: It is my belief that the explanation of the fluctuating performances of the major powerhouses is correlated with their socio-economic development. Indonesia's dominance in the 1980's and 1990's came along with their relative positive economic development trend until the Asian Economic crisis in 1998 in which saw a huge economic downturn and political turmoil within the country. Since 1997, Indonesia has never won the gold medal tally in a SEA Games hosted outside of its country. Thailand 's dominance during the 1999-2013 correlated with the period of relative economic prosperity that came with the boom of tourism and services sector, while its gradual drop-off since 2015 coincided with the the country's failure to increase its pace of economic development as well as having an internal political turmoil since the 2006 coup. Vietnam's rise coincides with the gradual rise of its economic development as a result of receiving an increase of foreign investment money from foreign businesses. The reason why economic development is a main reason for a country's performance in the gold medal tally is due to the fact that all countries' sports programs are funded by their respective state government. Thus, the better economic shape a country can be in, the more likely they're going to do well in the gold medal tally. Economic development is more of a key factor when you consider the fact that gentically, none of the SEA countries have a huge competitive advantage in terms of their physical features/structure over others. I would admit though, that there is a flaw in my argument as Singapore, the most prosperous country in the region has never won the gold medal tally, although they have been getting better in the past decade.

Rifda Irfanaluthfi is the only Indonesian gymnast who I know in the past decade that has the capability and has won the gold medal at the sea games as well as winning a silver at the 2018 Asian Games. It's unfortunate by the time she qualified for the 2024 Olympics, her body has been beaten up by injuries and did not perform well at Paris.

It is a shame that a stupid rule has chased away who is likely considered to be the best world class Southeast Asian athlete within the Olympic Sports.