Sub13

USA is the obvious choice. Australia has 1 very strong chance left (Kaylee 200 back), 1 solid chance (McEvoy 50 free), 1 toss up (Kaylee 200IM) and a few outside chances (Mixed medley, Titmus 800, Temple??). USA has probably 8 solid chances left with 3 of them being heavy favourites. So while Australia is possible it will basically take a miracle. We need to convert every single chance and hope USA gets upset in a heavy favourite

Brett Hawke is an American citizen who lives in California. Don’t blame us.

How can USA women have 18 in the top 8 when there have only been 8 individual events and relay, meaning 17 would be the maximum possible?

Australia has 2 significantly faster 100 breaststrokers so very unlikely he’ll be in any relays

Dude what is your problem? You're being SO DEFENSIVE for no reason. It's a topic of conversation now because swimmers have complained about it now. You posted one article in French as if that was some "proof" that the entire world knew 4 years ago about the pool depth and suddenly just started talking about it as a conspiracy to undermine the Games or something. Yes, it meets the minimum standards, but no, it is not the ideal standard for a competition pool. Some swimmers aren't happy about it. That's just factual. Chill.

Strangely enough, I don't think the majority of the world reads 'Sportetsociete' regularly. Is there evidence it was reported in any other countries?

No one knew about it until 2 days ago. Pretty hard to discuss an issue that you don’t know exists

I feel like this overrates USA and underrates China. Fink is much slower than he was in Doha, while Xu, Qin and Zhang have had no reason to swim fast yet this year. I'm also not convinced that Gretchen Walsh can repeat her time, and Regan will be slower in the men's wash.

Only issue with this is that some swimmers are inexplicably not entered with their best times. McKeown entered the 2IM with her time from Nationals and not Trials. Her trials time would have made her top seed but instead she is second seed, so really AUS should be +1 gold and USA -1

[hide] Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Men's 400m Freestyle Day 1 July 27th 2024 Samuel Short X Elijah Winnington X Felix Auboeck Lucas Henveaux Guilherme Costa Zhang Zhanshuo Oliver Klemet Lukas Martens X Kieran Bird Daniel Wiffen Marco De Tullio Danas Rapsys Kim Woomin Any American Athlete Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Freestyle Day 1 July 27th 2024 Jamie Perkins Ariarne Titmus X* Gabrielle Roncatto Maria Da Silva Costa Summer McIntosh X Li Bingjie Liu Yaxin Isabel Gose Simona Quadarella Erika Fairweather Katie Ledecky X Paige Madden Any Other Athlete Women's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 July 27th 2024 Australia X* Brazil Canada China X France Great Britain Hong Kong Italy Netherlands Poland Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Men's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 July 27th 2024 Australia Brazil Canada China X France Germany Great Britain X Greece Hungary Israel Italy Spain United States X* Any Other Nation Men's 400m Ind. Medley Day 2 July 28th 2024 Brendon Smith Leon Marchand X* Max Litchfield Apostolos Papastamos Balazs Hollo Gabor Zombori Alberto Razzetti Tomoyuki Matsushita Daiya Seto X Lewis Clareburt Carson Foster X Chase Kalisz Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Butterfly Day 2 July 28th 2024 Emma McKeon Alexandria Perkins Lana Pudar Margaret Macneil Yu Yiting Zhang Yufei X Marie Wattel Angelina Kohler Mizuki Hirai Rikako Ikee Louise Hansson Torri Huske X Gretchen Walsh X Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Breaststroke Day 2 July 28th 2024 Evgenii Somov Sam Williamson X Qin Haiyang X Sun Jiajun Melwin Imoudu Lucas Matzerath Adam Peaty X Nicolo Martinenghi Ludovico Viberti Casper Corbeau Arno Kamminga Omer Ogretir Nic Fink Charlie Swanson Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Ind. Medley Day 3 July 29th 2024 Jenna Forrester Ella Ramsay Summer McIntosh X* Freya Colbert Katie Shanahan Vivien Jackl Anastasia Gorbenko Sara Franceschi Mio Narita X Ageha Tanigawa Katie Grimes X Emma Weyant Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Freestyle Day 3 July 29th 2024 Maxmillian Giuliani Pan Zhanle X Lukas Martens Matthew Richards Duncan Scott Katsuhiro Matsumoto Danas Rapsys David Popovici X Hwang Sunwoo X Kim Woomin Chris Guiliano Luke Hobson Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Backstroke Day 3 July 29th 2024 Xu Jiayu X Yohann Ndoye-Brouard Mewen Tomac Oliver Morgan Jonny Marshall Apostolos Christou Evangelos Makrygiannis Huber Kos Thomas Ceccon X Ksawery Masiuk Pieter Coetze Hugo Gonzalez Hunter Armstrong Ryan Murphy X Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Breaststroke Day 3 July 29th 2024 Tang Qianting X Angharad Evans X Mona McSharry Lisa Angiolini Benedetta Pilato Ruta Meilutyte Kotryna Teterevkova Reona Aoki Satomi Suzuki Tes Schouten Tatjana Smith X Sophie Hansson Lilly King Emma Weber Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Freestyle Day 3 July 29th 2024 Mollie O'Callaghan X Ariarne Titmus X Maria Da Silva Costa Marie-Sophie Harvey Li Bingjie Yang Junxuan Barbora Seemanova Siobhan Haughey X Nikolett Padar Erika Fairweather Erin Gemmell Claire Weinstein Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Backstroke Day 4 July 30th 2024 Iona Anderson Kaylee McKeown X Kylie Masse X Ingrid Wilm Wan Letian Wang Xueer Beryl Gasteldello Emma Terebo Any British Athlete Danielle Hill Maaike De Waard Carmen Weiler Sastre Katharine Berkoff Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 800m Freestyle Day 4 July 30th 2024 Samuel Short X Elijah Winnington Guilherme Costa Sven Schwarz Florian Wellbrock Daniel Wiffen X Luca De Tullio Gregorio Paltrinieri Kim Woomin Ahmed Jaouadi Mykhailo Romanchuk Bobby Finke X Luke Whitlock Any Other Athlete Men's 4x200m Free Relay Day 4 July 30th 2024 Australia Brazil China X France Germany Great Britain X Greece Israel Italy Japan South Korea United States X Any Other Nation Women's 100m Freestyle Day 5 July 31st 2024 Shayna Jack Mollie O'Callaghan X Margaret Macneil Wu Qingfeng Yang Junxuan Any French Athlete Barbora Seemanova Anna Hopkin Siobhan Haughey X Marrit Steenbergen X Michelle Coleman Sarah Sjostrom Kate Douglass Gretchen Walsh Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Butterfly Day 5 July 31st 2024 Ilya Kharun Leon Marchand X Richard Marton Kristof Milak X Giacomo Carini Alberto Razzetti Tomoru Honda Genki Terakado Krzysztof Chmielewski Noe Ponti X Wang Kuan Hung Thomas Heilman Luca Urlando Any Other Athlete Women's 1500m Freestyle Day 5 July 31st 2024 Moesha Johnson Lani Pallister X Beatriz Dizotti Gao Weizhong Li Bingjie X Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Leonie Maertens Vivien Jackl Simona Quadarella Eve Thomas Katie Grimes Katie Ledecky X* Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Breaststroke Day 5 July 31st 2024 Zac Stubblety-Cook X Joshua Yong Dong Zhihao Qin Haiyang X Matti Mattsson Leon Marchand X Yu Hanaguruma Ippei Watanabe Casper Corbeau Arno Kamminga Matt Fallon Josh Matheny Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Freestyle Day 5 July 31st 2024 Kyle Chlamers Josh Liendo Jordan Crooks Pan Zhanle X Maxime Grousset Matthew Richards Nandor Nemeth Alessandro Miressi David Popovici X Andrej Barna Jack Alexy X Chris Guiliano Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Butterfly Day 6 August 1st 2024 Abbey Connor Elizabeth Dekkers X Lana Pudar Summer McIntosh X Chen Luying Zhang Yufei Helena Rosendahl Bach Keanna Macinnes Laura Stephens Hiroko Makino Airi Mitsui Alex Shackell Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Backstroke Day 6 August 1st 2024 Bradley Woodward Xu Jiayu Mewen Tomac Apostolos Siskos Hubert Kos X Adam Telegdy Thomas Ceccon Pieter Coetze Lee Juho Hugo Gonzalez X Roman Mityukov Oleksandr Zheltiakov Keaton Jones Ryan Murphy X Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 August 1st 2024 Ella Ramsay Jenna Strauch Sydney Pickrem Ye Shiwen Thea Blomsterberg Mona McSharry Satomi Suzuki Kotryna Teterevkova Tes Schouten X Kaylene Corbett Tatjana Smith X Kate Douglass X Lilly King Any Other Athlete Women's 4x200m Free Relay Day 6 August 1st 2024 Australia X* Brazil Canada China X France Great Britain Hungary Israel Italy Japan Netherlands New Zealand United States X Any Other Nation Men's 50m Freestyle Day 7 August 2nd 2024 Cameron McEvoy X Josh Liendo Maxime Grousset Florent Manaudou Benjamin Proud X Kristian Gkolomeev Szebasztian Szabo Gabe Castano Bjoern Seeliger Dylan Carter Vladyslav Bukhov X Caeleb Dressel Chris Guiliano Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Backstroke Day 7 August 2nd 2024 Jaclyn Barclay Kaylee McKeown X* Kylie Masse X Liu Yaxin Peng Xuwei Emma Terebo Honey Osrin Katie Shanahan Anastasia Gorbenko Margherita Panziera Phoebe Bacon Regan Smith X Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Ind. Medley Day 7 August 2nd 2024 Finlay Knox Wang Shun Leon Marchand X Tom Dean Duncan Scott X Ron Polonsky Alberto Razzetti Daiya Seto Lewis Clareburt Hugo Gonzalez Shaine Casas Carson Foster X Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Butterfly Day 8 August 3rd 2024 Matthew Temple X Ilya Kharun Josh Liendo X Maxime Grousset Hubert Kos Kristof Milak Gal Cohen Groumi Katsuhiro Matsumoto Nyls Korstanje Jakub Majerski Noe Ponti X Caeleb Dressel Thomas Heilman Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Ind. Medley Day 8 August 3rd 2024 Kaylee McKeown X Ella Ramsay Summer McIntosh X Sydney Pickrem Yu Yiting Abbie Wood Anastasia Gorbenko Sara Franceschi Yui Ohashi Marrit Steenbergen Kate Douglass X Alex Walsh Any Other Athlete Women's 800m Freestyle Day 8 August 3rd 2024 Lani Pallister Ariarne Titmus X Maria Da Silva Costa Li Bingjie X Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Ajna Kesely Simona Quadarella Erika Fairweather Eve Thomas Katie Ledecky X* Paige Madden Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 August 3rd 2024 Australia X Canada China X France Germany Great Britain Italy Japan Netherlands Poland Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Women's 50m Freestyle Day 9 August 4th 2024 Meg Harris Shayna Jack X Taylor Ruck Wu Qingfeng Zhang Yufei Any French Athlete Meg Harris Anna Hopkin Katarzyna Wasick X Michelle Coleman Sarah Sjostrom X* Simone Manuel Gretchen Walsh Any Other Athlete Men's 1500m Freestyle Day 9 August 4th 2024 Samuel Short X Fei Liwei David Aubry Sven Schwarz Florian Wellbrock Daniel Jervis David Betlehem Daniel Wiffen X Luca De Tullio Gregorio Paltrinieri Ahmed Jaouadi Mykhailo Romanchuk Bobby Finke X Any Other Athlete Men's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 9 August 4th 2024 Australia Canada China X France Germany Great Britain X Italy Japan Netherlands Poland Spain United States X Any Other Nation Women's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 9 August 4th 2024 Australia X Canada China X France Germany Great Britain Italy Japan Netherlands Poland Sweden United States X Any Other Nation Women's 10km Open Water Day 10 August 8th 2024 Chelsea Gubecka X Moesha Johnson Ana Marcela Cunha X Any French Athlete Leonie Beck Arianna Bridi Lisa Pou Sharon Van Rouwendaal X Angelica Andre Maria De Valdes Mariah Denigan Katie Grimes Any Other Athlete Men's 10km Open Water Day 11 August 9th 2024 Kyle Lee Nicholas Sloman X Logan Fontaine Marc-Antoine Olivier Oliver Klemet Florian Wellbrock X Hector Pardoe Tobias Robinson David Betlehem Kristof Rasovszky X Domenico Acerenza Gregorio Paltrinieri Any Other Athlete [/hide]

It seems like World Aquatics actually did prioritise sending OCT invites to relay only swimmers, which isn’t what the rules say. Interesting…

This thread died again so here’s a fun hypothetical: Mollie wins gold in the 100 free. Arnie wins it in the 400 and 800 free (obviously these events aren’t in order but bear with me). Who do you want to win the 200 free? Arnie - If Arnie does it she gets a legendary triple, as well as cementing the double double and putting herself in the top 3 women all time for individual Olympic medals, and overall medallists. Mollie - If Mollie does it she is the first woman not from East Germany to do the 100-200 double at the Olympics, and quite possibly ends the meet with 4 gold medals, which would catapult her to 3rd all time in Olympic medals for women. Would you prefer Arnie cements herself as a legend, or Mollie throws her name in the legend hat for the first time?

On the first night of Fukuoka I commented that if we won 4/4 golds (not counting the men’s 400IM which we were never winning) we would top the medal table and we did. I agree the first night will tell us a lot, and here are my predictions: 4/4 gold - Not possible but we are 100% topping the tally 3/4 gold and USA doesn’t win the 4th - we are topping the tally 3/4 gold and USA wins the 4th - we have a strong chance but it’ll be close 2/4 gold - small chance of topping the tally but unlikely 0-1 gold - whole meet is cooked

Ok this topic has died a little. So let’s do a little fun analysis. For the first time since Melbourne it looks like we have a chance at topping the swimming medal table. USA seems like the only other team capable (maybe China but USA and AUS would both need to fall apart). This will hinge heavily on 3 key swimmers: 1. Kaylee McKeown: Has a gold chance in 100 back, 200 back and 200IM. The second favourite in these events are all Americans (Smith, Smith, Douglass). So if Kaylee wins all 3 that’s +3 to AUS, and if she loses all 3 it’s likely +3 to USA, which is a massive 6 gold swing. 2. Sam Short: Short looked like the favourite for the 400 and likely favourite for the 800 before he got sick and was off form at trials. The 400 won’t be won by an American but the 800 likely goes to Finke if not Short. So Short can get +2 to AUS, or possibly +1 to USA, so a potential 3 gold swing. 3. Ariarne Titmus: Titmus has a chance in the 200 free. Second favourite is MOC so if Titmus loses MOC should win, and if both lose then an American won’t win. Titmus is favourite in the 400, and it’s possible but quite unlikely American Ledecky wins if Titmus doesn’t. Ledecky is the favourite in the 800, but Titmus has a very outside chance. If Titmus (or Titmus + MOC) wins all 3 that’s a +3 to AUS, or possibly a +2 to USA if she loses them all, making a 5 medal swing. So overall, these 3 swimmers represent a best case scenario of +8 to AUS or a worst case scenario of +6 to USA, a 14 gold medal swing. We can pretty confidently say if we get 0/8 there is no possibility we top the medal table (and likely aren’t in the top 3), but if we win all 8 then that alone might be enough. Add strong potential in W100 free, 100 free relay and 200 free relay, and if these three can all pull off all their swims we will likely win. Now just to be clear it is extremely unlikely we convert all 8 of these (both 800s are especially unlikely) but hey it’s fun to dream haha

I think it should be one and done. Each country literally gets one every 4 years, and sending the same swimmer who still doesn’t have an OCT 3 Games in a row is not helping promote swimming