Practically impossible without knowing which teams will show up. For example, will Jokić play for Serbia, what kind of USA national team will be there. I mean it's not impossible that if AMericans don't send their top team and they won't, they could miss on quarterfinals being in the same part of the draw with Greece and Lithuania with only two spots for QF.
From first part of the draw Serbia and Italy game in the 2nd round will determine who will be first and who second but both will qualify for quarter finals. Then, it's the game with one of the three Greece/USA/Lithuania.
Slovenia should coast from the group E but in group F we'll see one of AUS/GER/FIN eliminated in the first round and two in the second round. Probably Slovenia and Aus goes to QF but who knows.
Finaly, Spain will cruise in group G, while group H is the toughest one. But big caveat is waiting to see will Canada FINALY send it's best players or at least very good team. If they do I could see them in QF with France, Spain and Latvia battling for the other QF spot.
From Serbia's perspective, there are two do or die matches here for Olympic quota. Against Italy in 2nd round and QF matchup which will be massive.