Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026 Qualification Simulation Road to Milano Cortina 2026

[evil betty 82]

25 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Tucker Murphy is also on the WC start list. Could surprise and get a quota 

 Nicolas Claveaux-Laviolette, who competed for  until this season, should make it easily.

[intoronto 6,574]

86 (minus Kenya) countries have qualified as per the list on Wikipedia.

 

and  have also qualified in cross-country skiing bringing the total to 88.

 

 will almost assuredly qualify in biathlon.

 

(a different athlete from above) all have alpine skiers chasing qualification. I think these three should be able to qualify. Bringing the total up to 93. i

 

has a skeleton athlete on the bubble, but i think she will qualify, so 93 nations. 's athlete should easily qualify in freestyle skiing. Now up to 94.

Now the what ifs?

not sure if the FIS will intervene and allow him to compete. He also doesn't have enough races (I think?)

 have alpine skiers who just outside qualification, and I do not think they will be able to make it, same with in cross-country skiing. Also  in cross-country skiing, but he didn't compete at the WC and I am unsure if he intends to.

 

Countries with athletes potentially able to qualify but haven't competed this season (alpine skiing)
 

 

 

 

[evil betty 82]

On 11/29/2025 at 5:27 PM, intoronto said:

Now the what ifs?

not sure if the FIS will intervene and allow him to compete. He also doesn't have enough races (I think?)

 

 

 

 

I did a deep dive into FIS council meetings and found the following (forgive me if this has been brought up before): https://assets.fis-ski.com/f/252177/x/f4a7f510a1/2025_09_24_fis_council_summaryminutes.pdf Nathan Tchibozo's change to  was approved, so he does not have to sit out. However, for some reason his OWG eligibility listing only has his races he competed for his new NOC (where he is basically one race short of qualifying), this is not true of  Anastasia Papathomas and  Piera Hudson, who were approved at the same time. Weird right?

And for  I don't know where the legalities are right now but the FIS voted no to any inclusion of Russian or Belorussian athletes in October: https://assets.fis-ski.com/f/252177/x/25cbbd615b/2025_10_21_fis_council_summaryminutes.pdf It is interesting that the member nations who host events could deny AIN participation at their discretion and the motion still failed. 

[avlar 475]

32 minutes ago, evil betty said:

I did a deep dive into FIS council meetings and found the following (forgive me if this has been brought up before): https://assets.fis-ski.com/f/252177/x/f4a7f510a1/2025_09_24_fis_council_summaryminutes.pdf Nathan Tchibozo's change to  was approved, so he does not have to sit out. However, for some reason his OWG eligibility listing only has his races he competed for his new NOC (where he is basically one race short of qualifying), this is not true of  Anastasia Papathomas and  Piera Hudson, who were approved at the same time. Weird right?

And for  I don't know where the legalities are right now but the FIS voted no to any inclusion of Russian or Belorussian athletes in October: https://assets.fis-ski.com/f/252177/x/25cbbd615b/2025_10_21_fis_council_summaryminutes.pdf It is interesting that the member nations who host events could deny AIN participation at their discretion and the motion still failed. 

I can add on AIN`s that russians appealed to TAC/CAS and the hearings are sheduled for today.


Bad news: FIS agrreed for quick procedure so it means that the decision could be expected in 7-10 days. Elias may weaken FIS position in TAS/CAS to lost the case. At the same time FIS extended qualification dedaline to the mid-January so they potentially will have Tour de Ski to qulify even if they miss Davos.

[evil betty 82]

I noticed a new possibility for Olympic Qualification. Darya Dolidovich is competing in Biathlon as a refugee (from Belarus lives in Poland). Pretty sure that the Winter Olympics has never had that before. 

I really have no idea how realistic it is for her to get one of the wild cards but I thought it was an interesting find.

[evil betty 82]

Nathan Tchibozo of  is racing again, who knows what his status is but maybe a quota this week. Also Papathoma Paraskevaidou of  raced today, could be an alpine quota for them.

[evil betty 82]

On 12/8/2025 at 7:46 AM, evil betty said:

Nathan Tchibozo of  is racing again, who knows what his status is but maybe a quota this week. Also Papathoma Paraskevaidou of  raced today, could be an alpine quota for them.

So both made the standards, but we wait for the FIS to update because of just how strange Tchibozo's path to the Olympics has been. The FIS updates often, but never when there is something we really want to know I guess. Also  Laborde dit Pere is very close in to getting a men's quota competing in Courmayeur.

[evil betty 82]

I am curious if (with five cleared competitors)  will be eligible for the team event in FS aerials.  I don't think so, but we saw relay teams in swimming so maybe? 

[avlar 475]

19 hours ago, evil betty said:

I am curious if (with five cleared competitors)  will be eligible for the team event in FS aerials.  I don't think so, but we saw relay teams in swimming so maybe? 

I would say they will not be eligible. But it realy abotut the wording every federation has in its papers. World Aquatics changes their policies several times (especially after Mazepin "solved the issues" persoanlly - as witnessed one russian Olympic champion)

 

Inoirtnat notes on FIS decisions:

 

1. FIS points are frozen for ruissns and belorussians - so the situation is not so complicated for a lot of them.
2. The list of the AIN`s is not final as the list from ISU was. It means that persons mau be not only removed from the list but added as well.
   I expect russians to try some freestyle applications before the stage in China, for example.
3. FIS has not problems with the deny of visa or entris by the host countries. So they kept the possibility to close the doors for the russians for all the countries as ICF did. No sanctions for this, no removing events from the Olympic qualification list, no host changes,

 

* * * * *
Here is the the relevant extract from FIS papers for Aerials tram event. What do you think?

[intoronto 6,574]

Update, I think we will be at 95 NOC's in the end

 

 should qualify in alpine.  in skeleton (it will be close) and  in freestyle skiing are the ones left to officially qualify.