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Квалификационо пролеће 2024.


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Za Poljsku se zna da nam je maksimalni gubitak 2.59 poena, odnosno da se smanji razlika na 5.8 pre nedeljnih mečeva, za nedelju će se znati tek po završetku Italija - Slovenija sutra uveče, nama više odgovara uspeh Slovenije jer što su nam dalji na listi to ćemo manje gubiti porazom od njih. Postoji statistička formula za računanje poena samostalno pretpostavljajući rezultate prethodnih utakmica, neka moja gruba računica je da u slučaju poraza Slovenije 3-0 od Italije naš poraz 3-0 od Slovenije oduzima oko 6.0-6.1 poena, a ako Slovenija napravi bolji rezultat protiv Italije to se smanjuje ispod 6. Praktično, može da se desi ako Kuba uzme set ili 2 protiv Poljske, a mi izgubimo 2 puta 3-0 da bukvalno odlučuju decimale ko je bolji. Ako Kuba izgubi 3-0 ili mi uzmemo 1 set u bilo kojem meču onda smo nedostižni.

Ukoliko Kuba pobedi Poljsku onda i nama treba bar jedna pobeda u 2 meča, uz dodatne provere koliko setova treba uzeti.

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Али ако наши изгубе оба меча, и Куба изгуби свој преостали меч, Кубанци ће се пласирати на завршни турнир и аутоматски имају прилику да сакупњ још бодова? Или се за олимпијску листу рачуна само лигашки део?

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39 minutes ago, NikolaB said:

Али ако наши изгубе оба меча, и Куба изгуби свој преостали меч, Кубанци ће се пласирати на завршни турнир и аутоматски имају прилику да сакупњ још бодова? Или се за олимпијску листу рачуна само лигашки део?

Mislim da je samo ligaski deo, nisam siguran 

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6 hours ago, DjukaVB said:

Za Poljsku se zna da nam je maksimalni gubitak 2.59 poena, odnosno da se smanji razlika na 5.8 pre nedeljnih mečeva, za nedelju će se znati tek po završetku Italija - Slovenija sutra uveče, nama više odgovara uspeh Slovenije jer što su nam dalji na listi to ćemo manje gubiti porazom od njih. Postoji statistička formula za računanje poena samostalno pretpostavljajući rezultate prethodnih utakmica, neka moja gruba računica je da u slučaju poraza Slovenije 3-0 od Italije naš poraz 3-0 od Slovenije oduzima oko 6.0-6.1 poena, a ako Slovenija napravi bolji rezultat protiv Italije to se smanjuje ispod 6. Praktično, može da se desi ako Kuba uzme set ili 2 protiv Poljske, a mi izgubimo 2 puta 3-0 da bukvalno odlučuju decimale ko je bolji. Ako Kuba izgubi 3-0 ili mi uzmemo 1 set u bilo kojem meču onda smo nedostižni.

Ukoliko Kuba pobedi Poljsku onda i nama treba bar jedna pobeda u 2 meča, uz dodatne provere koliko setova treba uzeti.

Svaka cast na analizi:d i dobro dosao na forum!! 

 

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Ако је само лигашки део онда су шансе велике. Видим да је неко написао у теми да је једина ситуација која нама не одговара дупли пораз одпо 3:0 и победа Кубе истим резултатом. Сви остали исходинас воде у Париз

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3 hours ago, NikolaB said:

Ако је само лигашки део онда су шансе велике. Видим да је неко написао у теми да је једина ситуација која нама не одговара дупли пораз одпо 3:0 и победа Кубе истим резултатом. Сви остали исходинас воде у Париз

Nije tačno, oba naša poraza bilo kojim rezultatom i pobeda Kube bilo kojim rezultatom vode Kubu na OI.

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Meni analiza DjukeVB izgleda realno, obzirom na te gubitke poena u zavisnosti od rezultata. Nije mi narocito logicno da nasi porazi 3-2 i pobjeda Kube 3-2 znace isto kao nasi porazi od 3-0 i pobjeda Kube 3-0. 

Treba precizno izracunati svaki scenario.

Kako god bilo, nisam optimista. Prije par nedjelja sam rekao - tesko se vaditi protiv Slovenije i Poljske.

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