Biathlon will be the key sport. First of all because both France and Sweden can win a huge amount of medals in it, then because it's probably the most unpredictable and open to surprises sport of the Games. France could get 10 medals in biathlon, but could also get 3, same applies for Sweden. France have higher chances though, since our team is stronger overall. Pretty much every French biathlete can win a medal individually, not the case for the Swedes.
Ice Dance is not a maybe, that's a probably. Probably gold by the way. 3 in Cross-country would be a maximisation of the chances, manageable but still hard to attain. Snowboard-cross is also a great supplier (between 1 and 3).