I am double-checking my predictions on day 2 and i am seriously thinking about changing my W 100 fly (swimming) guesses. I thought 1. Torri Huske USA 2. Zhang Yufei CHN. But now i would say 1. Zhang Yufei CHN and i am not sure i would say Huske gets a medal at all now.
But look - if i change that - overall medal table changes very significantly: now it is 1. USA with 45 golds and 2. CHN with 42 golds. After W 100 fly change it's 1. USA with 44 golds 2. China with 43 golds. Very close battle here.
Then imagine one more gold for CHN in diving (instead of UKR) and we have a tie 44-44
And then one more gold for CHN in weightlifting (because i predicted one of CHN athletes will DNF ) and China is on the top 45-44
Well, well, well - i won't say nothing new here - but this overall medal table battle in Paris will be so close that the outcome is simply unpredictable
And my first impression is that BLRUS absence works better for China - there are more events where Chinese chances for gold are bigger due to Russian staying at home than such events where US will get adavantage (e.g. artistic swimming, men's artistic gymnastics...)
ofc, i can't say for sure that i didn't make any mistakes in my maths, and my medal table may be wrong, i would have to count it again but honestly i don't want to do it now, maybe after double-checking all 16 days