mpjmcevoy

Ever? Yes. In time for Paris? Somewhere between not very likely and not a chance. But hard to tell what end of the scale.

Do we know how many ranking points are left to win? We must be getting to the stage where some nations are mathematically secure?

I can only assume Emile himself has not absolutely decided which event to target, marathon or 10,000...

If I was being ultra objective, 2 men 1 woman would seem fair - GB have a lot of good men, and one brilliant woman. The woman may be the best (50/50) shout for racing gold, but several of the men are medal possible, whereas Beth is about it at the moment. i noticed over the weekend Cat Ferguson picking up a national Track medal - as you do in between snagging age grade medals on CX, MTB and Road.... In the understdable excitement over generational talents like Pidcock, Backstedt and Tarling, I hope we don't take our eye off Ferguson coming through

She's a legend and a super hot favourite, but no way is she a lock - too many good 1500m runners who could have 'that' day in, say, a wet race.

Their bus could crash. Nothing, nothing is ever 100% locked. But yes, the USA men's team come close.

I agree, although I wonder if the BritSurge was more specifically about Jason Kenny than GB sprinters in general - Hoy ruled the roost the whole time when he was on top, as did Vicky Pendleton in a kind of dual monarchy with Anna Meares. It was Kenny who had the unusual talent for peaking. That said, the dutch sprinters are alien-level good at the moment, even if Hoogland is on the downslope. FWIW, I can see the Brit WOMEN sprinters doing a worldie behind Finucane, who already looks a generational talent, maybe even more than Becky James (who GBR have sorely missed the last two cycles)

Not that many though. Yes, some would be an almighty shock, but any one event can go askew. The last four Olympics the Chinese have been red hot favourites for a clean sweep - and in every single games someone got them at least once. Mitcham, Boudia, Laugher & Mears, Daley & Lee - every four years, like clockwork, somebody has the best day of their lives at the expense of China - and its been 4 different events. Maybe this will finally be their sweep. They ought to. But... you can trace a hint of the pattern all the way back to 1988. China dominate, someone spoils the perfect....

It's VERY difficult to see past the Dutch male sprinters, even now, for example. The women sprinters looks likely to be a straight showdown - Germany v Great Britain Men's and Women's team pursuit a bit more unpredictable.

Obviously nothing is ever a 100% lock because you can get hit by a bus. So leaving that aside : I don't see McLaughlin as a lock AT ALL. She's the favourite, but no more. I frankly have a hunch it will be Bol. Just had to get that off the chest.

Caudrey has been an emerging talent for a few years, but has absolutely skyrocketed to world class in about 18 months - it's not just that she hit a 4.80 mid. It's that she's doing it in almost every competition at the moment, which makes her an absolute medal shout at elite level, though she will likely need 4,90 if she's gonna scare the top step. If holly Bradshaw makes it back by the summer, you may have the absurdity of women's pole vault being GB's best field event - and trust me, in a GB historic context, that is an absurdity.

I guess I'm nervous of a system that gives more points to a straight WLLL than a LWWW - it makes that first match worth more than all the others combined; a tournament system works better, I think because you earn your way to the extra points. Of course, if you had time, 4 groups of eight would be even better, perhaps using time to score as the equivalent of goal difference. You could then break into 4 set of eight - each fencer then has 7+3 matches, which sounds a lot compared to maybe 4 or 6, but is still vastly less than the current complete round robin.

2024 MP bears little resemblance 1950's MP It's an arbitrary sport in many ways, invented not evolved. And most importantly, perhaps, without the Olympics it will die. Best to accept the new format as the MP equivalent of rugby sevens - a Games based 'taster' version of the sport, while other versions - including Classic Equestrian with separate run and shoot, perhaps - exist outside the Olympics (perhaps in world Games)

What you want is Either - a rugby sevens style 'shield, plate and bowl' competition which will give everyone broadly equal matches, and a detailed ranking OR a 'tournament' with seeded groups of four, followed again by a 'shield, plate and bowl' style ranking competition (my preference, so first loss does not condemn you to 17th place at best) For 32 competitors, that would work out at 4 matches each in scenario 1 or 6 matches each in scenario 2, but would still have a certain sporting authenticity to it, ad would increase the actual jeapordy of each match.

True, but it's a fairly obvious mathematical way to 'rejig' the numbers for 'universality' - it's precisely this effect they're aiming at - it's a feature, not a bug.

I think the issue is translation skills, to be honest. Especially with the 'jargon' the IOC tend to insist upon.

Is London Marathon the trials event?

It doesn't count for swim ireland, but it does for IOC. And its Paris 2024 who give out the quotas. If Ireland reject one, that's fine, but that's a case of handing a place back, not having failed to win it.

The Europeans? ;-)

At the moment, two Irish male swimmers have the OQT. Granted, I don' see Dan Wiffen putting together a couple of quick hundreds (!), but technically, they have two qualified male swimmers, and are entitled to two for relays. so I think include them until and unless they self exclude.

Katie Moon halted at 4.80

Having three big hitters going for the women's 100 back is a major help here, and if Peaty is even competitive (i.e there or thereabouts for a medal) then its plausibly game on. There are some good young sprint breaststrokers coming through (eg Bilbao), but my gut says Peaty will be OK, in that case almost everything turns on 100 fly, and specifically the form of Guy and Peters - Guy looked at the Euro short course (frankly a better barometer, in my view, than this odd Worlds of where GB hope to be) to have found some of his 2015 Mojo - if that's the case, he may step back from the medley relays, at least partially, to protect his newfound 200 free form. I think this event was almost the GB banker last time - this time, I think the banker is the mens 4 x 2 free, and the men's medley may actually be stronger than the mixed. I still think if Peaty is even 95% there (I'd reckon he's about 80% atm but he knows he's gonna get a wildcard if required) then medals in both relays is likely and gold in either/or is possible.

I don't think that 4x200 has the least bearing on Paris, to be honest.

This scenario seems to suit Llewellin and Achillios very well, three spaces still available for direct qualification (2 by World Q, 1 by europe champs) in addition to the rankings spot.

Apparently almost the entire team is untapered; the only real issue was qualifying the men's 4 x 100, and even there, James Guy didn't go, Dean barely did, and both Scott and Richards were basically in heavy training. Peaty apparently sort of half tapered, and his team are apparently perfectly happy with where he is, much as Max Litchfield's team are. Clearly the USA have taken an even more relaxed route if that's possible, while Chinese in comparison are absolutely on it. Stephen's gold today was a complete left-fielder, but its interesting her time was more or less the same as last years worlds, when the worlds were the main event of the season. She's clearly capable of more, but she's unlikely to catch Macintosh, lets be honest. The women's 4 x 200, without Anderson, is seriously impressive , especially Wood. And despite the lack of taper/seriousness, they've still got their 4x1 quota, a women's 4x2 free silver which is actually impressive, and notably 4 medals. some of us recall a fully tapered GB scrounging about for 1 bronze not so terribly long ago. Paris will be a whole new level of tough, but quietly I'd say GBR are pretty happy with where they are. Team Ireland, by contrast, are absolutely ecstatic, notwithstanding the relay disappointment.