Okay, I'll adjust the GBR expected win rate against Uruguay to 98 out of 100 then.
This is no intended disrespect to Uruguay or Japan. Both are improving nations, in both 7s and the 15 a side game. But more than anything, it shows how lax both GBR and RSA have been in 7s in the last couple of years.
But it's an undeniable fact that the path for Japan and Uruguay to qualify this time around was much easier than it is for GBR especially but even RSA. Kenya are basically the same level as Uruguay. RSA should have beaten them but it isn't a huge shock they didn't. Same with GBR and Ireland/Spain.
But nobody else in Asia or South America is close to that level right now. Even in 7s, which is a more even sport than the 15 a side game.
Basically, the path to the Olympics was made much easier for certain countries with the teams already qualified through the rankings. Hell, even Samoa got an easier ride this time around.
It is what it is. It happened to France in Tokyo and it will happen to one of GBR or RSA this time.