Rafa Maciel

With the field now set, the head to heads for competing nations across 23/24 is: The men seem to have had a significantly higher number of games compared to the women and most of the nations seem reasonably well matched. Hopefully Ireland will have opportunity to arrange a couple of test matches against the higher ranked nations because outside of this week's Olympic Qualifiers, they haven't competed against any top competition since the start of 2023.

With the lineup for the Olympic tournament complete this is the head-to-head results for the participants since the start of 2023. It's difficult to see beyond taking the gold but likely to be close battle between and for the minor medals.

To be fair, GB's top team pursuit squad has always relied heavily on their road cyclists so it was never likely that they would be made available to take part in the full track season so they would never be in a position to put their strongest team out across the three Nations Cup events. However equally, I think most people would agree that a "second tier" GB team should be able to out-score both Belgium and China. Far from being cocky, I think the fact that Vernon is suggesting that they will be competing in Milton is a sign of how seriously they are taking the challenge to qualify - if GB haven't done enough in the first two rounds, then the top squad (or at least some of them) will take to the boards for that final push. Looking at the 2023 Nations Cup results: Jakarta - Wood / Tidball / Britton / Tanfield: GB 3rd Belgium 6th Cairo - Tidball / Giddings / Gill / Hobbs: GB 5th China 10th Belgium 11th Milton - Wood / Bigham / Charlton / Gill: GB 1st Belgium 6th China 7th If GB can get a top 4 position in Adelaide, that will likely deliver around 300-point swing to GB which would be more than enough to overtake both China and Belgium. The biggest risk to them securing a quota would be if they failed to finish in Adelaide as that would ramp up the pressure going into the final 2 events.

Think that may be an outdated version of the qualification document - the latest version dated January 2023 is different and includes results from Fukuoka. Paris2024-QS-FINA-Swimming.pdf (olympics.com)

I always thought it likely that Putin would ultimately tell Bach to shove his quotas but had thought he would time it to cause maximum embarrassment.

US Olympic Team Trials The US Olympic selection regatta across 5 events took place in Miami last week. Athletes Confirmed as Selected for Team USA: Women's iQFOiL - Dominique Stater - Stater confirmed in the quota that she secured in taking silver at last year's Pan-American games Men's 49er - Ian Barrows & Hans Henken - The US quota was won by Andrew Mollerus and Ian MacDiarmid when they finished 5th at the World Champs with Barrows and Henken finishing in 9th. At the selection trials, Barrows and Henken won the event by 3 points. Other Event Winners: Mixed 470 - Stu McNay & Lara Dallman-Weiss Men's iQFOiL - Noah Lyons Men's Kite - Markus Edegran For these 3 boats, USA do not currently have a quota so these athletes need to secure their tickets to Paris via the 470 World Champs or the last chance regatta.

1st day of the World Boxing Cup in Sheffield hasn't quite gone to plan for GB Boxing with Delicious Orie losing in his first-round bout against Germany's Nelvie Tiafack.

Tactically it may not be a bad call for them actually. I think it mirrors their approach from 2023 season where they missed the first round and appeared in rounds 2 and 3 (but could be wrong on that) As it is, they can only count 2 Nations Cup results and with round 2 being in Hong Kong it is safe to assume they will be there and I think the expectation is that Milton will the weakest round of the three as it is the last in the series and by then nations who rely on their road cyclists as part of their squad may not be putting out their strongest teams. Realistically, unless something goes horribly, horribly wrong, GB will finish above both Belgium and China but by playing smart, I think China believe that they can sneak ahead of Belgium.

The Olympic track rankings on the UCI website were a bit of a mess towards the end of last year too so we shouldn't be too surprised that they are wrong again. haven't dropped to 13th - not only have the UCI not added the 2024 European Champs points, but they have also removed the 2023 points so all the European nations have dropped back. I ran the new points totals during the European champs and put them on the European Championship thread but basically GB would move up to 9th but that will only be until the Asian champs are done at the end of Feb. When you factor in the likelihood that China will be 2nd in Asia, GB will drop back down to 11th but will have reduce the gap on both Belgium and China ahead of the Nations Cup.

The men's sprint squad are fast becoming the weak link in an otherwise pretty impressive Cycling team. I think there is a strong chance that the women's sprint squad will bring back 2 medals from Paris - likely silver in team sprint but with a decent chance of gold in individual sprint. I don't think Finucane will medal in the Keirin but the event is always a bit of a lottery and can easily throw up a surprise medalist. The women's endurance squad are probably marginal favourites for gold in the team pursuit. I am guessing Archibald will be selected for the Omnium and if she is, she should be in the mix for a medal but probably wouldn't go in as favourite. The squad will have plenty of options when it comes to the madison - I think Neah Evans is likely to be picked and probably with Elinor Barker in a repeat of the pairing from Glasgow. They would go into the competition as serious medal contenders but again the event often owes more to tactics and luck than form. On the men's side, the team pursuiters are back on track to qualify for Paris after crashing out in Glasgow and all things being equal, they should come back with a medal. I certainly don't think we will see a repeat of Tokyo where they were caught and crashed. The biggest issue for them is likely to be the fact that they will probably be quite early in the starting order so wont be able to react to the performances of and . For both the omnium and the madison, will have strong team to select from and will be medal contenders in both events but not necessarily favourites. Then we come to the men's sprint team, and at the moment, you would have to say it does not look likely that will win any medal across the men's team sprint, individual sprint or keirin - that is something that has not happened since Athens in 2004. In the team sprint, realistically the best they could hope for is a bronze but to do that they will likely need to overcome France. They have one of the best lead out riders in Ali Fielding and Hamish Turnbull is able to hold his own as second man. The question will then be whether they stick with Jack Carlin as the 3rd man or opt for Jo Truman. Neither Carlin or Truman were anywhere close to medaling in the individual sprint at this week's Euros and we've seen nothing to suggest they will perform any better in the keirin. At this stage, the only unknown is going to be the impact that the new tech will have. I don't think the new bikes are being used in Apeldoorn this week so the only outing it had was in qualifying for team pursuit in Glasgow and it ended up in a heap on the floor after the crash.

Apologies you are right - each Nations Cup event is worth a maximum of 1600. I was looking at the column for continental champs which are only worth 1200.

I think so - there are only 2400 points available from Nations Cup so not enough points left for them to be able to overtake GB.

Olympic Ranking - Women's Team Pursuit 1.) - 7590 2.) - 6655 3.) - 6550 (CC) 4.) - 6200 5.) - 5960 6.) - 5240 (CC) 7.) - 4870 (CC) 8.) - 4830 (CC) 9.) - 5125 10.) - 3970 (CC) -------------------------- 11.) - 4075 12.) - 3470 (CC) For the outstanding Continental Champs, as with the men, it will be close between New Zealand and Australia. I'll just assume that last year's result is replicated giving Australia 900 points and New Zealand 810. In Asia, Japan should win and gain 900 points whilst China will get 810. Finally I expect Canada to take top spot for the Americas ahead of USA. Adjusted points total would therefore be: 1.) - 7590 2.) - 7360 3.) - 6655 4.) - 6200 5.) - 6140 5.) - 5960 7.) - 5770 8.) - 5640 9.) - 5125 10.) - 4870 -------------------------- 11.) - 4280 12.) - 4075

1st part of the job safely done for the men's pursuit team taking the European championship. Just need two solid performances in the Nations Cup and they will be back in a quota spot. Just makes you wonder what they could have achieved in Glasgow had they not crashed out in qualifying.

Olympic Ranking - Men's Team Pursuit 1.) - 7685 2.) - 5850 (CC) 3.) - 6560 4.) - 5550 (CC) 5.) - 6170 6.) - 5220 7.) - 4930 (CC) 8.) - 4840 9.) - 4593 10.) - 4310 (CC) -------------------------- 11.) - 4025 12.) - 3840 (CC) For the outstanding Continental Champs, it's difficult to call for Oceania and will probably depend on how seriously Australia and New Zealand take it. I am going to give the nod to NZL even though they finished in 2nd last year. So I expect New Zealand to gain 900 points and Australia 810 points. In Asia, Japan should win and gain 900 points whilst China will get 810. Finally I expect Canada to take top spot for the Americas. Adjusted points total would therefore be: 1.) - 7685 2.) - 6750 3.) - 6560 4.) - 6360 5.) - 6170 6.) - 5830 7.) - 5220 8.) - 5210 9.) - 4840 10.) - 4650 -------------------------- 11.) - 4593 12.) - 4025

Olympic Ranking - Men's Team Sprint 1.) - 5880 2.) - 5100 (CC) 3.) - 4987.5 4.) - 4601.25 5.) - 4113.75 6.) - 3997.5 (CC) 7.) - 3937.5 (CC) 8.) - 3750 ------------------------- 9.) - 3300 (CC) 10.) - 3112.5 Needless to say, I am expecting Australia to win the Oceania championship next month to pick up 675 points and Canada will probably do the same for America to also gain 675 points. Japan and China will finish top 2 in Asia to gain 675 and 607.5 points respectively. If that is the case, then the adjusted ranking would be: 1.) - 5880 2.) - 5775 3.) - 4987.5 4.) - 4672.5 5.) - 4601.25 6.) - 4545 7.) - 4113.75 8.) - 3975 ------------------------- 9.) - 3750 10.) - 3112.5 So @rybak, although this was a great result for Poland, it will probably see them fall further behind their nearest competition for the final Olympic Quota when all of the continental championships are complete. They can still qualify, but they would likely need to replicate this result in at least 1 of the Nations Cup events.

Olympic Ranking - Women's Team Sprint 1.) - 5880 2.) - 5100 3.) - 4755 (CC) 4.) - 4507.5 5.) - 4128.75 6.) - 4117.5 (CC) 7.) - 3843.75 8.) - 3465 (CC) ------------------------- 9.) - 3442.5 (CC) 10.) - 2880 (CC) (CC) refers to countries who still have their 2024 continental championship to come. FWIW, I expect China to pick up 675 points in Asia, Mexico should also pick up 675 with Canada and New Zealand gaining 607.5. If that is the case, then the adjusted ranking would be: 1.) - 5880 2.) - 5430 3.) - 5100 4.) - 4792.5 5.) - 4507.5 6.) - 4128.75 7.) - 4072.5 8.) - 4050 ------------------------- 9.) - 3843.75 10.) - 3487.5 After the continental championships, there are a maximum of 2400 points available across the Nations Cup so whilst I think the top 6 are pretty safe, Canada, New Zealand and France are all in the mix for quotas.

Last event of afternoon session just wrapped up with finishing just ahead of in Men's Team Pursuit with finishing in 3rd. finished in 5th place and will ride against in the 1st round. GB could do with them being a bit off the pace tonight as they look to close the gap on the Olympic quota spot.

Agreed - they've already sewed up their spot for Paris and with Archibald taking part in the champions league at the end of last year, it is just a case of managing her schedule so that she peaks for Olympics

top the qualifying for Women's Team Pursuit ahead of and although worth saying that this whilst this was the same Italian squad as the World Champs, GB didn't have their strongest rider - Katie Archibald. Germany will be happy to be above GB in qualifying but perhaps worried about the gap to Italy - in Glasgow they were only 0.3 seconds behind but here they were 1.9 seconds adrift. were able to dust themselves off to take the restart and finish in 5th place.

First real surprise of the competition - DNF in the Women's Team Pursuit. They were putting together a great performance and leading the competition before they had a crash after the 2km mark so are currently showing as DNF. If I remember correctly from Glasgow, they would be allowed to ride again to get a qualifying time, if the same squad are passed as fit to ride but I could be wrong about that.

Men's Team Sprint qualifying complete with and taking the top 3 spots. Compared to last year's WC, seemed to drop back a little (although they did field a different team this time around) and will be a bit disappointed to finish behind having been ahead of them in Glasgow.

Women's Team Sprint qualifying completed with no surprises - and separated by just 0.061 seconds. Basically looks like we are heading towards a repeat of the result from last year's world championships for the European nations.

New Brit Oliver Crawford has just won his first match in colours after switching allegiance from . He won his first round of qualifying against Ilya Ivashka 6-3. 3-6, 6-1

Generally I am a bit wary about prophesising medals whilst we're still in the middle of winter training but it would be a major surprise (and disappointment) if Craig and Grant didn't secure the gold medal in LW2x. I guess the good news is that based on last years performances, the men's sweep squad will have medal chances in all three classes but at this stage, I wouldn't say any are nailed on certainties for gold. I think the M2- would likely be the weakest link - not because the crew isn't capable, but the competition in the class is pretty stiff. The M4- should medal - but then we thought the same going into Tokyo - but could emerge as gold medal contenders. It will be difficult as they don't tend to compete as much on the international circuit. Traditional foes, would need to see an improvement on their 2023 pace if they are going to be challenging for top spot on the podium. The M8+ has such a small field and GB has such strength on the men's side that again a medal should be achievable. On the men's sculling side, currently we have only qualified the M4x and whilst it is not beyond possibility that they could sneak a minor medal, it would be a bit of a surprise. I am expecting to be the big winners in the sculling classes. The immediate question for GB is whether we can qualify for the M1x and/or M2x at final qualifying regatta. The women's sculling prospects are much like those of the men. Whilst we have had some great results in the W4x in the past, I think the WC Gold last year was beyond expectations and I think it will be tough to repeat in Paris. Again I expect to be featuring in the medals and are always strong in this boat. Finally, the women's sweep crews will have medal chances in both W4- and W8+. Interestingly, Gracenote's predictions had the W4- slated for a gold medal and personally I would love to see Helen Glover signing off her Olympic journey by standing on the top step of the podium again. The big unknown for the women's side is whether any of the crews will double up. From what I can gather, the selectors are looking to avoid anyone having to double up as it is felt that the fact that Booth and Ford had doubled up in the pair and eight could have contributed to them missing out on the bronze medal in the 8. Ultimately everything is going to come down to who has managed to get through the winter without picking up an injury and then how they perform in the April trials which will determine crew allocations but all things considered, I think there is every reason for British Rowing to be confident going into the new season.