[POLL-TRACK CYCLING] Which country will win the Track Cycling medal tally at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024?

[RussB 189]

  On 6/21/2024 at 12:47 PM, Faramir said:

big underdogs? Seems a little exaggerated, what time do you think New Zealand can set?

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Hard to precise the time's given the importance of the track dynamics etc, but New Zealand set a 4m 10 in Adelaide (R1 of nations cup), which was matched by GBR in Milton (R3). The Italians have gone a 4m 16.6 in Milton [Balsano, Consonni, Fidanza, Guazzini]. Unless there are significant additional changes to be brought into the lineup, that is a huge gap to close in such a timeframe. from 2023 worlds, Italy went a 4m 11.3 (2 secs behind GBR, and 1.1 second behind NZ), so yes NZ for me are the clear favs.

Edited June 21, 2024 by RussB

[Faramir 373]

  On 6/21/2024 at 12:57 PM, RussB said:

Hard to precise the time's given the importance of the track dynamics etc, but New Zealand set a 4m 10 in Adelaide (R1 of nations cup), which was matched by GBR in Milton (R3). The Italians have gone a 4m 16.6 in Milton [Balsano, Consonni, Fidanza, Guazzini]. Unless there are significant additional changes to be brought into the lineup, that is a huge gap to close in such a timeframe.

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uh? you probably only took the times of the final where they disintegrated at last, Italy went 4:10 as well (but way less will be needed in Paris) there's nowhere near that difference between NZL and ITA.

 

And in 2023 Balsamo was missing (+ Paternoster in bad shape), that they will improve on 2022 is quite sure to me.

 

i mean, unless NZL can pull a Germany-in-Tokyo like performance I don't see them being that far.

 

Edited June 21, 2024 by Faramir

[dodge 1,027]

Nations Cup results mean little tbh. World Champs is the better indicator (and a track record of peaking for the big events)

[RussB 189]

I agree the World's is a better indicator, which was added to my post (early sub). Nation's Cup are less instructive but still a useful indicator for form. We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet. Nor am I saying the gap is going to be anywhere near 6 seconds, all I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite", I don't see the argument that it is Italy over NZ.

 

Now GB with Archibald would be a different proposition, I may give the edge to GBR but I think it would be very close. Without Katie, I think we are probably looking at being in the bronze medal match although we thankfully don't have a notable dropoff between our 4th and 5th riders (Morris / Knight).

[RussB 189]

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:21 PM, RussB said:

I agree the World's is a better indicator, which was added to my post (early sub). Nation's Cup are less instructive but still a useful indicator for form. We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet. Nor am I saying the gap is going to be anywhere near 6 seconds, all I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite", I don't see the argument that it is Italy over NZ. You're right I had only taken the final time and not the qualifying time of 4m 11.4 (much more representative gap). 

 

Now GB with Archibald would be a different proposition, I may give the edge to GBR but I think it would be very close. Without Katie, I think we are probably looking at being in the bronze medal match although we thankfully don't have a notable dropoff between our 4th and 5th riders (Morris / Knight).

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[Faramir 373]

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:21 PM, RussB said:

We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet.

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https://prod.server.tissottiming.com/file/0003170103020602FFFFFFFFFFFFFF02

 

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:21 PM, RussB said:

I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite"

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yes, so none of the 2 is a "big underdog"

[RussB 189]

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:32 PM, Faramir said:

https://prod.server.tissottiming.com/file/0003170103020602FFFFFFFFFFFFFF02

 

yes, so none of the 2 is a "big underdog"

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In what you attach, Italy got beaten by a GBR team with Roberts in for Neah. So yes the big 2 are ahead of Italy as things stand, I really don't think that is controversial as an opinion. Without Katie, GBR in my mind are definitely 3rd.. again which I think is a very reasonable position to take. If i was to be pushed on chances for Gold I'd split it as roughly 70/25/5 (NZ/It/GB), so chances for sure (25%) but to me that makes NZ strong fav.

[phelps 7,797]

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:21 PM, RussB said:

I agree the World's is a better indicator, which was added to my post (early sub). Nation's Cup are less instructive but still a useful indicator for form. We have not seen anything from the Italians this year ...yet. Nor am I saying the gap is going to be anywhere near 6 seconds, all I'm saying is that it is difficult based on all the data we have about who should be considered the "favourite", I don't see the argument that it is Italy over NZ.

 

Now GB with Archibald would be a different proposition, I may give the edge to GBR but I think it would be very close. Without Katie, I think we are probably looking at being in the bronze medal match although we thankfully don't have a notable dropoff between our 4th and 5th riders (Morris / Knight).

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our girls mainly focus on the road races through the season, they only train specifically on the track and peak just for the world champs

 

their results in Winter/Spring don't mean anything compared to what they can do when it truly matters

[RussB 189]

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:41 PM, phelps said:

our girls mainly focus on the road races through the season, they only train specifically on the track and peak just for the world champs

 

their results in Winter/Spring don't mean anything compared to what they can do when it truly matters

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That is fair, all squads should improve to some degree on the focus on the track for Paris (some more than others), and should be a very interesting battle in Paris. I'll certainly hold my hands up if Italy win the gold convincingly. 

[Nish 7]

  On 6/21/2024 at 1:41 PM, phelps said:

our girls mainly focus on the road races through the season, they only train specifically on the track and peak just for the world champs

 

their results in Winter/Spring don't mean anything compared to what they can do when it truly matters

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Well GB were gold medal winners and Team NZ were silver at the world champs last year so not sure if that either implies Italy being favs in any sort