We really could do with a powerful opposite, like Sloetjens used to be. Plak makes some miraculous points, but is not in the same league with the top opposites, like Boskovic or Martinez who always deliver when their teams needs them. Dambrink is still young, but I don’t think she’s the answer.
This game highlights next year’s VNL problem. A match between a team that after 2-1 has nothing to play for than perhaps pride, and is inevitably a little less motivated, and a team that has to get as much points as possible. A Dutch victory in the 5th set could be very important, points wise.
Poland can qualify with a loss only if they lose to Italy with more sets won than USA vs Germany.
USA only needs to win two sets vs Germany and they qualify no matter what is the result of Italy vs Poland.
Poland basically has to win at least two sets to stand a chance. If they lose 1-3 the only result for them is Germany win 3-0 which is the least probable out of the entire set IMO.
So: USA 27 out of 36, Poland 21 out of 36, Italy 24 out of 36.
Mission improbable for the Dutch team, but then I’m a natural born pessimist.
But crazy how far the Dutch team has progressed under Koslowski, compared to last year’s disappointment at the Worlds, and the general decline of the last 4 years.
Koslowski has created the nucleus of a competitive team, bringing in talented youngsters. Interesting to see how this team will progress in the run up to 2028.
Best case scenario for Canada, 5 - 2 victories, 14 points. It’s hard to see not least 2 of the remaining rivals topping this.
If for instance both Serbia and Dominican Republic have 3-1 victories tomorrow, they will finish in front of Canada, irrespective of the result of the Sunday matches. if they win 3-2 tomorrow, one point on Sunday will do to defeat Canada, but perhaps not to finish in the top 2.
Either China or NL will be at 4-1, 12 or 13 points after today’s match. So even if the winning team today, loses tomorrow, a victory on Sunday will put them at 5-2, with at least 14, but perhaps 16 points.
Given that the 4 rival teams play each other, each result that’s positive for Canada in respect to one team, will at the same time be negative in respect to one of the others.
For NL and Chn: win your last three matches, and you are qualified, win two you stand a significant chance (depending on who you defeat and with what score). Two defeats and you are most likely out. Three defeats and out for certain.
For SER and DR: win both your last matches and you are qualified. Win one and you are still in with a significant chance (depending on who and how). Two defeats, you’re most likely out.
Can: win your last 3 matches 3-0 or 3-1, and hold your opponents to low scores. Then hope for the best so that as few as possible of the 4 rival teams end at 6-1 or 5-2. Even then the odds are not terrific.
How the Dominicans will rue their defeat against the Czechs. Without it, they would have a 5 - 0 record, and qualifying would have been possible even with defeats in the last two matches and one victory would have clinched it. Now to be in with a chance, they have to win at least 1 match.
There are so many possibilities, that it’s hard to say for certain. But the most likely scenario seems to be that Canada ties for 2nd on wins, but loses out on points. I can even see a scenario where 3 or 4 teams end with a 5 - 2 win - loss score. That would probably not be good news for Canada
Canada can’t afford to underestimate the Czechs. They were very poor against us in the second and third sets, but of course manage to turn that around brilliantly.
Just did the set ratio math. Canada needs to win all three matches 3-0 to have a chance to beat China or the Netherlands (and they need to lose to Serbia 0-3 while winning 3-2 in their other two matches). Things are a bit more open if the Dominican Republic finishes with a 5-2 record.
For instance, Although Canada defeated NL, NL scored a few more points. Same today with China.
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Belgium participated in 1968; the did not qualify but replaced Romania that withdrew.
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