To point out a mistake in the document.
They say Artistic Swimming is back to being a women only sport. That is not true, men are still allowed to compete
ExpandWith only 6 spots, don't think there is space for Continental qualifiers and Host quota. I would have 2026 World Cup Winner. Three qualifiers (these can be semi-continental with some continents merged) with 1 spot each. Rest 2 to rankings.
This is going a very tricky decision for the ICC.
You can't really use the current world rankings because ranking points will be won or lost against teams that are not eligible for the Olympics.
I think that any country who fails to qualify because will launch an appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport and probably win.
So here's what I suggest for the six.
1 Possible host country place - USA - but only possible - what you do is recalculate the ICC rankings and take out all points gained against non-Olympic teams.
Then once you done this and taken out non-Olympic countries like West Indies and either England and Scotland then if the USA are in a high enough ranking position they qualify. This position could be as high as 10th or as low as 20th depending on how important the IOC and ICC see their presence in LA.
(I'm assuming that, like in curling and women's soccer Great Britain would nominate either England or Scotland as their official qualifying representatives)
USA are currently 18th
2 2026 World T20 champions
3 and 4 Asia-Pacific qualifying tournament winners and runners-up
5 and 6 Euro-Africa-Americas qualifying tournament winners and runners-up
(7) If the USA don't meet the qualifying standard then a play off between the 3rd place teams in the 2 above categories decides the final qualifiers
The qualifying tournament would be held under IOC eligibility rules not the ICC rules
Edited by Dragonadded US current ranking
Expandhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/articles/c2479v9q86qo
IBA want Trump to help get Boxing on the programme and them running it.
Trump vs the IOC is one to watch - currently not a good relationship unlike Trump and FIFA.
"World Boxing is set to be officially installed as the new international governing body for the sport in time for Los Angeles 2028 at the International Olympic Committee Session in Costa Navarino next month.
Officials from the breakaway organisation and IOC are both frantically working to put the finishing touches to a deal that will guarantee boxing’s Olympic future and officially end the International Boxing Association’s right to govern the sport in the Games after more than 80 years."
ExpandWay too high. That's Super Bowl numbers for an event that's mostly watching athletes walking in, a bunch of speeches and a few performances sprinkled in. I enjoy it, but I understand most people wouldn't.
As a comparison the 1996 Olympics had about 40 million US viewership, adjusting for population that puts it at around 48 million. Throw in fewer people owning a TV and this event not exactly bringing people to bars to watch, I would say if they broke 50 million it would be very successful
100 million was what I got after scaling up the UK TV figures from 2012
ExpandDepends what time they start. If it's the usual 8pm local start it will likely be lower since over half the country lives +3 hours ahead.
How does 100 million sound to you?
ExpandDoesn't that decision sit with World Athletics rather than the IOC?
Absolutely. World Athletics outranks the IOC in these decisions.
ExpandI remember a couple of years during the athletics worlds in Oregon one of the British athletes wasn’t able to enter the US due to visa issues. I feel like something similar will happen in LA, and I don’t envisage Trump succumbing to an appeal to let an unfortunate athlete in.
If I was an Iranian sportsperson I would be very worried that Trump would not allow me into the USA for the Olympics.
ExpandAfter Zika, Covid and bed bugs we have found the new reason because of which Olympics are going to be cancelled. Brace for 3.5 years of updates on how Trump's X policy or Y statement will result in cancellation of LA Games.
How about this?
"2026 Winter Olympics Cancelled after USA Withdraw After US President is Banned From Italy Due To His Criminal Convictions"
ExpandI'm still going to keep my eternal hopes for kabaddi
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I highly doubt I'm going to be really aware of cricket's existence in LA, other than a quick glance at the results, but kabaddi...oh boy, that'd be on the list of high priority sports in my viewing schedule
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/l0056mbc/kabaddi-british-kabaddi-league-2024-19th
Available outside the UK?
ExpandMust be cool though, if you're from India: basically your country is the one and only reason for an entire sport being in the Olympics, even though it is entirely obvious that it is only for the money (if it was for the sport itself, there would obviously not be a tiny 6-team tournament)
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What if India fails to qualify?
ExpandIs there a host nation quota that USA might not automatically receive? The only one that comes to mind is Field Hockey. I was thinking about Handball as well but as i see Great Britain receiving host nation quota for 2012 , it will likely be the same (though maybe IHF and IOC would like to avoid that embarrassment and put a standard on their quota)
for Field Hockey i remembered that Brazil got a standard they had to achieve in 2016, and the women's team didn't make it
If cricket is limited to 6 men's and 6 women's teams then both teams might struggle to get a host nation quota. Especially the women's team.
Edited by Dragontypo
ExpandIs it ? I guess it's also 20 degrees cooler then hell on earth palm springs. So never mind that
Here it's 14 c and raining...
ExpandUltimately, I think the IOC is going to be the one forced to say no. It doesn't seem like the U.S.. government/NOC or Canadian government/NOC want to risk the political blowback domestically. World Lacrosse doesn't seem to keen to intervene after the The World Games uproar. Of course, much can change in the lead up to the Games.
At present, I feel like it will come down to how much domestic support the IOC risks losing barring the Haudenosaunee from competing as a separate entity.
I could see a compromise where a Haudenosaunee team would play a ceremonial game to start off the tournament
Obviously this is a complete non-starter of an idea because of the precedent it would set if the Iroquois could compete independently.
If them then why not Catalunya?, why not Euskadi? Brittany, Corsica, Occitania, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Scotland, Wales, the Falkland Islands/Malvinas, Tibet?
Quebec, the Navajo nation, Somaliland, Western Sahara? etc,etc,etc
ExpandThis article talks more about international players in the NFL.
have the most players besides US and Canada. Link: https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/heres-a-list-of-all-the-active-nfl-players-born-outside-of-the-united-states/496802/
Be careful with the German contingent. It seems most were born on US army bases in Germany and would probably not be eligible for team
ExpandReminds me a bit of Parkour - it has a really interesting possible offering of events (in Parkour, sprint, freestyle and pursuit, in Disc, golf and Ultimate), but the politics is just not right...
Ultimate have applied for the last three Games and never got close to making the shortlist.
Have to ask if they're serious about it or just wasting time and money
Edited by DragonExpandThe key is Lacrosse is an indigenous sport in the US, and North America - in a way even flag football and basketball are not. There are major political benefits, potentially, to including a sport like that.
England Lacrosse claim 18,000 players https://www.statista.com/statistics/934933/lacrosse-participation-uk/
I find that hard to believe though
ExpandI'm not 100% sure cricket will have its best players. There's a lot of hurdles in India and to a lesser extent the Caribbean nations.
No way India would risk losing to Pakistan by leaving out their best players
Edited by Dragon
ExpandThat is an excellent distribution of quota places except I would add 1 more quota place to Asia and reduce 1 from last chance global qualifier .
I'll explain why I chose my method.
Basically it would mean every country would have three opportunities for Olympic places.
If the Olympics were being held this year then in your scenario /
would qualify as world champions,
and
would qualify through the 2022 Asia Cup. There is no Oceania Cup but
are higher in the world rankings than
so we would have a scenario where India and Australia would play off for one final Olympic place.
ExpandCan't agree with that (though I can see why you would want it!)
Oceania 1, Africa 1, Europe 1, Pan America 1 kind of sells itself
Hosts is obvious.
I hesitate at World Champs, only because you might have a situation were RSA are world champs, and then you're talking Zimbabwe having a better shot than Pakistan or New Zealand, and that's not realistic.
That no longer there world champ spot now goes to Asia to recognise it has 5 'Full members' - so Asia 1+2, Host, Oceania 1, Africa 1, Europe 1, Pan American 1 leaves one last qualifier(or 2 if host is Aus, Ind etc) - which would be a MAJOR tournament in itself
Interestingly if this year was Olympic year (and based on results and rankings) it might have been Australia playing India for the final qualifying place.
ICC nightmare...
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Also this from a journalist friend who asked the IOC about whether the mixed tennis event would be mixed doubles or a mixed team event.
Simple answer - they don't know yet. The ITF are still to decide
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