Think you're you're being a little pessimistic here. In men's slalom the #3 GB skier is in the world top 40 and the 3 Carrick-Smith teenagers are jumping up the rankings too. I'd actually be slightly disappointed if we didn't have a full team of 4 slalom skiers plus 2 in the women's event. The speed events are going to be a big challenge though

" There one kid trying the stuff, but no chance unless he swithc nationality to Benin or Tuvalu for the free pass" - There is no universality quotas at the WOG

The big problem with Nines is that every attempt at a world competition has failed badly. A World Cup in 2019 was not repeated again and a World Club tournament was abandoned 20 years years ago due to a lack of interest. I'm not even sure the variant is played anywhere these days.

I believe, the IOC has admitted the cap will have to be relaxed for 2028.   I think they will go with what you proposed. 10,500 for core sports plus some for extra sports

Slovakia   Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2026 Milano Cortina   Ski Sports   Alpine Skiing  (5) - As usual, 3 W & 2 M. Petra Vlhová will be accompanied by 2 other girls, I guess Rebeka Jančová should be one of them, no idea who will be the other one. For the men team, it is going to be again the Žampa bros clan with one last dance for Adam and once again joind by his younger brother Andreas. Cross Country Skiing  (4) - As always in the last couple of games, I expect a Coubertine-like participation in this sport with a perfect Bach-esque gender equality with 2 M and 2 W in order to start in both Team sprints semifinals. Do not ask me the names, I have absolutely no idea Ski Jumping  (2) - There a quite solid chance to finally return in this beautiful sport for Slovakia since the extinction of the dinosaurs. The young Kapustík siblings, Hektor and his sister Kira are the biggest chances for this history making, Among women it would be an absolute premiere, plus there a minor chance that Kira Kapustíková may be, if all planets align perfectly accompanied by another girl Tamara Mesíková. Nordic Combined  (0) - Maybe in Abu Dhabi 2042 or New Trumpopolis 2046 Freestyle Skiing  (1) - Michael Oravec in Freeski Big Air & Slopestyle is the only realistic chance, there some young girls trying ski cross, but still too long way to go here Snowboarding  (2) - Klaudia Medlová once returned from injuries should qualify for her last games in Big Air + Slopestyle. Among men in the same disciplines we may have an olympic debut with Samuel Jaroš. Biathlon  (6) - Hopefully with the returns of Paja Fialková (now Batovská) and Nastya Kuzmina we will win enough points to qualify a full female squad alongside the young Ema Kapustová and one of the Remeňová sisters to form a relay. Among men, the situation is more complicated, I hope at least 2 guys will make it (The biggest chances I see for the young talent Borguľa and maybe Sklenárik to join him) to have at least a mixed relay, a full men relay hope is utopic Ski Mountaineering  (2) - Funny enough, probably our biggest medal chance is this niche sport with Marianna Jagerčíková in W Sprint, alongside her male partner Jakub Šiarnik we should start also in the Mixed relay     Skating Sports   Speed Skating  (1) - There a fresh young czech import who can qualify us for the very first time in this sport, his name is Lukáš Steklý, but since I have zero clue about this sport I can not say how much it is also realistic though Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - Would be nice to have again a participation in this, we have a couple of talented young girls, but still far from the required level, so probably none again Figure Skating  (1) - The young Adam Hagara is our solid chance for participating, he will need a good dose of luck in the process though, and as knowing the good old mathematical laws about the equation between Slovakia and Luck it will end by Zero athletes     Sleigh Sports   Luge  (5) - 2 guys in Singles with the immortal Highlander Ninis, a pair in Doubles and at least one female should qualify, at least I hope so Skeleton  (0) - There one kid trying the stuff, but no chance unless he swithc nationality to Benin or Tuvalu for the free pass Bobsleigh  (1) - Viki Čerňanská I do believe shoud repeat her Olympic experience from Beijing in the monobobs once again     Team Sports   Curling  (0) - lol Ice Hockey  (25) - Embarassement and national mourning avoided, The National pride qualified again and continue the streak of never missing any winter olympic tournament since the independence. With very likely the most talented generation our hockey ever had, Cortina is a great journey we are looking forward. Hail to the god Slafkovský everyone         Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (57) Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (30)   Total Realistic Prediction  -  (50)

I’m no expert on British athletes/sport, but as an avid watcher of a ton of sporting events (not saying you don’t), particularly curling and hockey so I have a few conflicting viewpoints here.   In freestyle skiing, I think your predictions are good but I’d say 3 on the men’s side. Davies in ski cross, and Fenely and Jeannesson in moguls will probably qualify.    In snowboarding, more specifically snowboard cross, I think Nightingale will qualify. FYI there’s no specific qualification pathway for mixed team, you just need to qualify one person per gender.    In curling, I’d have to assume your opinion has changed since the European Championships? British women’s curling didn’t have the greatest of seasons in 2023-24. I personally think it’ll be close; Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, South Korea, United States, Japan (and Italy) for sure. Then a couple of Great Britain, Denmark, Norway, and maybe China or Turkey.    As for hockey…. had to chuckle when I read that because sorry, but your men’s team had no chance at all, especially in the most stacked group of the tournament with both Denmark and Norway… 

Given how tight they've gotten with awarding spots since imposing that 10,500 cap in particular I'm amazed how many non-core team sports they added for LA28. It got to be a bit of a nightmare in several sports for Paris, so unless they increase the cap, the core sports are going to have to cut back even further.   Would be nice if the IOC set one cap for the core sports, and gave the hosts latitude with the non-core sports. If they wanted to go nuts, let 'em, it's their money. If they let LA have Flag Football, I wouldn't rule out anything if Brisbane pushes hard enough.

I think the biggest problem for Australian football is how big the roster size is.   Rugby League Nines might be a more realistic "out there" selection.