British Swimming Championships 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Epic Failure 209]

Tom may not have the best time, but he's bronze medalist from the most recent real WC (ie not Doha), where he beat all 3 of Wang, Casas and Foster in a 1:56.07!

 

I agree that the competition is fierce but I would argue that his proven record of championship performances deserves some respect. For me he's below the top bracket of expectation (Richards, Peaty, Proud etc) but ahead of the as-yet-unproven at Champ levels (Morgan, Evans etc)

[RussB 102]

4 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

Tom may not have the best time, but he's bronze medalist from the most recent real WC (ie not Doha), where he beat all 3 of Wang, Casas and Foster in a 1:56.07!

 

I agree that the competition is fierce but I would argue that his proven record of championship performances deserves some respect. For me he's below the top bracket of expectation (Richards, Peaty, Proud etc) but ahead of the as-yet-unproven at Champ levels (Morgan, Evans etc)

Certainly respect but given the form he has showed so far in 2024, I don’t think it’s a fair expectation to put him ahead of the guys I already mentioned just on basis of 2023 world's

[Epic Failure 209]

I mean he swam 2 tenths quicker at trials this year than he did last year before he went on to medal. Hardly terrible form.

 

Again, I'm not hanging a medal around his neck but he certainly should be in the list of serious possible medalists. If Angharad is in the list as a possible medalist with the 6th best time of those competing in Paris, then Tom deserves to be with the 7th best!

[RussB 102]

1 hour ago, Epic Failure said:

I mean he swam 2 tenths quicker at trials this year than he did last year before he went on to medal. Hardly terrible form.

 

Again, I'm not hanging a medal around his neck but he certainly should be in the list of serious possible medalists. If Angharad is in the list as a possible medalist with the 6th best time of those competing in Paris, then Tom deserves to be with the 7th best!

apples and oranges...

 

I have more faith in what I would view as up-and-coming racers in Paris (Ollie and Angharad) as they are showing me huge drops in time through 2024, despite the heavy training blocks. Again we have to be careful with expectations management, I do not expect Ollie or Angharad to medal in Paris; BUT I view their chances as being greater than Tom in the 200 IM mainly due to the competition at the top end of the event, and I've not seen anything this year from Tom that tells me he is going to swim 1m 55 low or better which is what will be needed to medal. He will either need to beat both Americans, and Wang (and anyone else I've neglected to mention), or knock-off either Marchand or Duncan in addition to all but 1 of the first list of guys. My view is that this is unlikely, so remains an outside chance for me, which I would love to see come in. 

 

But yes my personal slant is to give the swimmers who are clearly in PB form and rising through the ranks a greater shot in general because their ceiling is less defined. Furthermore specifically in regards to this games, I don't think the top end of the 100m W breast is as clearly defined and competitive as the men's 200 IM.

Edited July 16 by RussB

[Epic Failure 209]

Just because an athlete has performed at PB level during a season doesn't mean that they will continue to do so. Nor is the opposite guaranteed to happen. Some athletes time their taper better than others.

 

By your logic, Duncan should be almost as much of an outsider as Tom, given his best in the last 12 months is a 1:55.9, which is substantially slower than Wang and Marchand, and at least a couple of tenths slower than both Casas and Foster. But you aren't writing Duncan off in the same way.

 

Just seems a touch inconsistent, that's all. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[RussB 102]

6 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

Just because an athlete has performed at PB level during a season doesn't mean that they will continue to do so. Nor is the opposite guaranteed to happen. Some athletes time their taper better than others.

 

By your logic, Duncan should be almost as much of an outsider as Tom, given his best in the last 12 months is a 1:55.9, which is substantially slower than Wang and Marchand, and at least a couple of tenths slower than both Casas and Foster. But you aren't writing Duncan off in the same way.

 

Just seems a touch inconsistent, that's all. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

By that logic your argument is even more inconsistent by assuming Dean will not only recapture form from 12 months ago, but probably have to exceed this …

 

And I’m not sure how my view that Duncan will beat Tom is in any way illogical. Duncan beat Tom at trials in 3 separate events including the 200 IM, he beat Tom in the event at the 2023 World’s and in general has looked the faster swimmer over the past 12 months. I’m not sure what basis you’d have for making a logical argument that Tom would be favoured to finish ahead of Duncan in Paris. It is a clear and incontrovertible fact that Duncan has a better chance of medalling than Tom in Paris given the info that we have.

 

there are no guarantees in sport… that’s why we watch it!! We are talking about small percentages either way.

 

We agree to disagree. As usual. 

Edited July 17 by RussB

[Epic Failure 209]

10 hours ago, RussB said:

By that logic your argument is even more inconsistent by assuming Dean will not only recapture form from 12 months ago, but probably have to exceed this …

 

And I’m not sure how my view that Duncan will beat Tom is in any way illogical. Duncan beat Tom at trials in 3 separate events including the 200 IM, he beat Tom in the event at the 2023 World’s and in general has looked the faster swimmer over the past 12 months. I’m not sure what basis you’d have for making a logical argument that Tom would be favoured to finish ahead of Duncan in Paris. It is a clear and incontrovertible fact that Duncan has a better chance of medalling than Tom in Paris given the info that we have.

 

there are no guarantees in sport… that’s why we watch it!! We are talking about small percentages either way.

 

We agree to disagree. As usual. 

Sigh.

 

I'm not saying Tom is favoured to finish ahead of Duncan. I've not made that argument once.

 

What I think is illogical is that you are discarding Tom's chances based on the times of the others, but not Duncan's chances as well. 

 

The same people are ahead of them both on time. The only advantage Duncan has is that there is slightly less of a gap for him to close to those folk.

 

Hence my last comment that he "should be almost as much of an outsider". The key word in that is almost! 

 

 

 

For the sake of clarity - I 100% agree that Duncan is more favoured than Tom. I 100% agree that Tom has a smaller chance overall. I just believe that there is a better chance of them coming silver (Duncan) and bronze (Tom) than you do!

 

Edited Wednesday at 06:00 PM by Epic Failure

[RussB 102]

For gods sakes man, really? 

 

For the sake of my sanity (and anyone else reading) please can someone raise another more interesting topic as I think we have discussed Tom Dean’s chances of getting a bronze to death 🤣

[Epic Failure 209]

In fairness, I said agree to disagree and your response was to continue the argument.

 

Don't blame me for continuing the discussion when you are doing exactly the same...

[RussB 102]

7 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

In fairness, I said agree to disagree and your response was to continue the argument.

 

Don't blame me for continuing the discussion when you are doing exactly the same...

Let's be fair, my response was also to say agree to disagree. And yet you continued the argument. And still have not let it lie after I've tried to draw a line under it.