[sesma 4]

  On 5/14/2024 at 10:25 AM, nitinsanker said:

 India   I will try to be as scientific/ disciplined as possible to avoid over estimating chances for india which I have done in both tokyo and the disaster ( for india) which was Rio... 

 

So first I set a minimum criteria for performance - world Championship medal this Olympic cycle or Asian Games gold / silver ( only for sports where asian standard is high) or world ranking top 3 .  After that try to a % chance to eliminate absolutes . If done then in alphabetical order 

 

1. Athletics 

 

Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23  S -22,  world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%

 

We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )

 

2. Archery... 

 

Men's team... Ranked 2 , also AG silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

3.  Boxing 

 

We have won 2G , 4 B in wch .... But this was AIBA with many boycotts... 

 

50 kg.... Nikhat ( double world champ) .... Medal chance... 75% , Gold chance... 50% ...

 

57 Kg.... Manisha who won the bronze in wch is not there , but the new girl parveen is there who has won a medal in wch in non Olympic weight .... Medal chance... 25% 

 

76 .... Lovlina .... Reigning world champ, AG silver,  Medal chance... 50% , Gold chance 25% 

 

 

Men's  ( we do not have a quota yet so this subject to them winning quota) 

 

51 - amit phangal.... Deepak bohria won wch bronze but it will be amit at the last qualifier and  i think he can win quota he is AG gold and world champ silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

71 Nishant bohra... Wch bronze if he gets quota in last qualifier.... Medal chance 25%

 

4. Shooting 

 

We have won 21 quotas second after china but this is a sport where we have underperformed last two Olympics ... But will combine the events 

 

events.... Based on the criteria drawn 8 events meet them ....10M rifle ( M and W) , 50M 3 positions ( M and W) , mixed pistol , 10m pistol ( W), 25M pistol W, Skeet M ....  33% chance in each for medal, 15% for gold each event.... 

 

 

 

5. Wrestling 

 

50 kg W... Vinesh AG gold and 2 time bronze wch... Medal 50% medal 

 

53 kg W... Antim... Current world Championship bronze... 50% medal 

 

57 kg W.... Anshu silver in wch... 25% medal 

 

76 W - reethika, 56 M Aman do not meet criteria but since both are u23 Gold medallist can consider wch medal equivalent - 25% medal chance 

 

 

 

49 kg W .. Mirabhai chanu, world rank and world champ silver 2022 ... Medal chance... 50% ... Chances would be higher had she not been recovering from injury

 

Oops almost missed 

Badminton. . 

 

Men singles won 3 world Championship medals.... Medal chance... 25% 

 

Men doubles... World chmpionship medal and world rank top 3 .... Medal prospect - 50% and gold -25%

 

Total - Gold  - 2.5  ... Between 2-3

           Medals - 8.9 - between 8-9

 

Ha Ha....maybe gracenotes can steal my analysis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Very good analysis..in hockey 25-30% chances are there for a medal

 

  On 5/14/2024 at 10:25 AM, nitinsanker said:

 India   I will try to be as scientific/ disciplined as possible to avoid over estimating chances for india which I have done in both tokyo and the disaster ( for india) which was Rio... 

 

So first I set a minimum criteria for performance - world Championship medal this Olympic cycle or Asian Games gold / silver ( only for sports where asian standard is high) or world ranking top 3 .  After that try to a % chance to eliminate absolutes . If done then in alphabetical order 

 

1. Athletics 

 

Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23  S -22,  world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%

 

We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )

 

2. Archery... 

 

Men's team... Ranked 2 , also AG silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

3.  Boxing 

 

We have won 2G , 4 B in wch .... But this was AIBA with many boycotts... 

 

50 kg.... Nikhat ( double world champ) .... Medal chance... 75% , Gold chance... 50% ...

 

57 Kg.... Manisha who won the bronze in wch is not there , but the new girl parveen is there who has won a medal in wch in non Olympic weight .... Medal chance... 25% 

 

76 .... Lovlina .... Reigning world champ, AG silver,  Medal chance... 50% , Gold chance 25% 

 

 

Men's  ( we do not have a quota yet so this subject to them winning quota) 

 

51 - amit phangal.... Deepak bohria won wch bronze but it will be amit at the last qualifier and  i think he can win quota he is AG gold and world champ silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

71 Nishant bohra... Wch bronze if he gets quota in last qualifier.... Medal chance 25%

 

4. Shooting 

 

We have won 21 quotas second after china but this is a sport where we have underperformed last two Olympics ... But will combine the events 

 

events.... Based on the criteria drawn 8 events meet them ....10M rifle ( M and W) , 50M 3 positions ( M and W) , mixed pistol , 10m pistol ( W), 25M pistol W, Skeet M ....  33% chance in each for medal, 15% for gold each event.... 

 

 

 

5. Wrestling 

 

50 kg W... Vinesh AG gold and 2 time bronze wch... Medal 50% medal 

 

53 kg W... Antim... Current world Championship bronze... 50% medal 

 

57 kg W.... Anshu silver in wch... 25% medal 

 

76 W - reethika, 56 M Aman do not meet criteria but since both are u23 Gold medallist can consider wch medal equivalent - 25% medal chance 

 

 

 

49 kg W .. Mirabhai chanu, world rank and world champ silver 2022 ... Medal chance... 50% ... Chances would be higher had she not been recovering from injury

 

Oops almost missed 

Badminton. . 

 

Men singles won 3 world Championship medals.... Medal chance... 25% 

 

Men doubles... World chmpionship medal and world rank top 3 .... Medal prospect - 50% and gold -25%

 

Total - Gold  - 2.5  ... Between 2-3

           Medals - 8.9 - between 8-9

 

Ha Ha....maybe gracenotes can steal my analysis

 

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Hoping for shooting contingent winning 2-4 medals this time Edited May 15, 2024 by Sindo

[sesma 4]

  On 2/27/2024 at 10:22 AM, Prakash_k said:

China 5 gold in TT ,6 in weightlifting and 7 in diving is assured. 

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Medicore prediction😄...Google last Olympic TT results

[sesma 4]

  On 11/18/2023 at 6:21 AM, rafalgorka said:

Sounds reasonable. Thanks.

 

I also wonder are there hopes for a maybe surprising medal for India in a sport where you haven’t got an olympic medal before? Who could that be?

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Expecting one medal this time from men/women archery

 

[sesma 4]

  On 11/18/2023 at 6:16 AM, Prakash_k said:

There will selection trials between cream  shooters in may . I think all rifle cat + air pistol men’s & mixed are these cat where we have chnce but i am not expecting more than 3 medal because of our previous 2 Olympic performance ( I know covid /team selection was big reason in Tokyo failure ) 

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I am expecting 2 medals this time , with realistic chances are both mixed rifle team events, sift kaur, 10 m women rifle. This time pistol shooting quota not yet reached optimum and not looking in medal contention