Given that TeamNL won a total of 6 medals in athletics in the 17 games from 1952 to 2016, nobody would have predicted 4 medals at the start of 2020.
Bol’s rise started that year (but more clearly in 2021) and Vetter dropped out of the 2019 World Champs with psychological complaints and was far from certain to compete again, let alone at top level. Even in 2021, my guestemation was 4 medals at the very best, with the kamikaze schedule that Hassan chose meaning I had serious doubts about her achieving multiple medals. At least 3 medals (Oosterwegel’s bronze in the hepathlon, and the silvers in the men’s marathon and 4 x 400 meter relays) were totally unexpected.
Multiple medal chances for instance in sailing.
But my point is really how surprising it is that a sport where we basically were dependent on a single talent once in a while, now delivers multiple athletes, likely to make finals and capable of vying for a medal, and a significant number of athletes below that (who on a good day are capable of making a final). In the past our teams consisted almost completely of athletes in the second category.