Here is my preview about freestyle draws
but first I have to say we have less depth in freestyle comparing to Greco-Roman which means the level of competition is quite low ! makes harder to predict, but still there are some great wrestlers not qualified yet.
59kg
I think in easier top half , the winner of Buruian-Atli match in first round will make it to Rio. can't see any other competition for them (maybe Ewald or the Chinese guy), Atli is slight favorite here.
in bottom half we have two very good wrestlers Shuptar and Andreyev. both world medalist, I think the quota will be between them but still we have the Kyrgyz guy, Mejias, Metreveli and a guy from Uzbekistan
I expect Turkey and Ukraine to qualify.
65kg
we have 32 wrestlers here ! still the top half is still easier despite having 16 wrestlers in each half ! it's hard to pick a clear favorite here becuase there are 4-5 good (but not great) wrestlers there , Garcia (CAN), Perpelita (MDA), Bucur (ROU) and Habat (SLO) all have chances here and maybe the guy from Kyrgyzstan. Bucur has a clean path to the semifinal. still I think Garcia has more chance.
we have Molinaro, Zhumagaziyev, Novachkov, Safaryan, Radulov, Nurykov and few more good wrestlers from Japan, France and Korea here. it's really hard to pick someone they are all at the same level. Novachkov might even got the quota if they disqualify the Ukrainian wrestlers. on other hand Radulov (UKR) is very good but he is probably not prepared as a last minute entry. Safaryan is a former world champion.
I expect Canada and Belarus to qualify.
74kg
out of remaining wrestlers, I see only Rashid Kurbanov as a serious medal treat in Rio and he is not here ! Uzbekistan is sending Abdurakhmanov (raised in USA , world bronze medalist) here, he is the top favorite in top half, have an easy path to quarterfinal probably against China, his semifinal will be probably against Ukraine or Germany, I consider Ukraine as the second favorite behind him.
again there is no clear favorite in second half, but a bunch good wrestlers almost in the same level. Brzozowski, Sufiev, Ncube, Nagy, Friev, Grigoryan, even the new Belarus guy, beside all of them I'm curious to see this Uruguayan guy Palacio ! he is an American wrestler with Uruguay heritage. I won't surprise if he qualifies (still not a top favorite here) . really hard to pick one snce they are all at the same level. but I go with my favorite wrestler here , our Tajik friend.
I expect Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to qualify.
86kg
The biggest name here is a former world champion Aldatov. this is his last chance and I think he won't miss it.by saying that he still has some competition in top half. Ismanov in second round, Murtazaliev/Harth in Quarters and probably Ianulov (or Japan) in semifinal, I think Ianulov is the only real treat for him. he lost narrowly in Serbia.
bottom half is much easier this time, wide open for everybody. I had to check the list so many times to pick one ! if Tagziev survives his first match he has an easy way to the semifinal (I have no idea about the Russian guy of France but his CV doesn't look good) in the lower quarter I see Korea, Latvia, even FInland and Romania with chance, Stefan (ROU) used to be a good wrestler but did nothing special recently.
I expect Ukraine and South Korea to qualify.
97kg
Only in this weight , I didn't have hard time to pick two wrestlers ! Khudelbulga has a dream draw in top half. nobody serious on his way to the semifinal and there he only has to beat India or Germany to make it. Shala of Albania also can make a surprise here, this Mongolia guy was terrible at home two weeks ago which makes me give chance to those guys as well. still he is the clear favorite.
with Saritov around, this is useless to talk about the rest, he will qualify most probably, I think the only one who can challenge Saritov is Yanouksi, that will be a close mtch.
I expect Mongolia and Romania to qualify.
125kg
We have a very weird situation here, 3 wrestlers are here while they shouldn't ! Ukraine and Belarus qualified the weight before but they are still here (and still not clear who will qualify instead of them) Brazilian guy Jaoude also qualified in Greco-Roman but still he is trying his chance (which is an absolute ZERO) in freestyle they have a naturalized Armenian wrestler who will probably take his place in Greco-Roman. I won't surprise if they simply qualify all top 4 wrestlers here, so it's better for everybody to take bronze medal matches serious ! but if they want to give spot to someone Iliev of BUL deserved it more, but he is still here !
OK let's back to the competition without considering all these crazy things.we have some surprising names in top half, Saidov (BLR) and Krupnyakv (KGZ) !! both from Russia, both considered be a big name in 97kg, both once got banned for doping. Saidov was the biggest nobody ! I heard so many things about him and now he has to qualify the weight AGAIN for Belarus. we also have Chintoan and Matuhin here, plus Vivenes.
in bottom half it will be between the new guy of Ukraine, Greece and Slovakia. and maybe Iliev.
I expect Belarus and Ukraine to qualify again