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Paris 2024 Medal Predictions - Australia


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Posted (edited)

Australia Medal Predictions plus outside medal contenders.

I've taken into account recent performances including World Championships, Olympic trials etc.

Its the Olympics and it will be a case of win some and lose some,but hopefully the average will end up around my estimation.

 

 

Sport M/F Event Gold Silver Bronze Medal Chance Name
Athletics Women 20km Walk   1     Jemima Montag
Athletics Women High Jump  1       Nicola Olysagers and Eleanor Patterson
Athletics Men Pole Vault        1 Kurtis Marschall
Athletics Women Pole Vault     1   Nina Kennedy
Athletics Men Discus       1 Matthew Denny
Athletics Women Javelin     1   Kelsey Lee Barber and Mackenzie Little
Athletics Women 1500m        1 Jessica Hull
Basketball Men Team       1 Mens
Basketball Women Team     1   Womens
Beach Volleyball Women Team       1 Mariafe and Clancy
Boxing Women 75kg   1     Caitlin Parker
Canoeing Women K1   1     Jessica Fox 
Canoeing Women C1 1       Jessica Fox
Canoeing Women C1X       1 Jessica Fox
Canoeing Women K4 500m     1   Womens
Canoeing Men K2 500m       1 Jean van der Westhuyzen/Thomas Green
Cycling BMX Men Park Freestyle    1     Logan Martin
Cycling BMX Women Racing 1       Saya Sakakibara
Cycling Road Women Time Trial       1 Grace Brown
Cycling Track Men Sprint Teams   1     Mens 
Cycling Track Men Sprint Individual     1   Matthew Glaetzer and Matthew Richardson 
Cycling Track Women Madison       1 Georgia Baker/Alexandra Manly
Cycling Track Men Keiren       1 Matthew Richardson/Matthew Glaetzer
Diving Women 3m Springboard       1 Maddison Keeney
Diving Men 10m Platform     1   Cassiel Rousseau
Equestrian  Mixed 3 Day Event     1   3 Day event -Teams
Field Hockey Men Team   1     Womens Team
Field Hockey Women Team       1 Mens Team
Football Women Team       1 Womens
Golf Men Individual       1 Mark Leishman and Cam Smith
Rowing Men Coxless Fours     1   Mens Team
Rowing Women Coxless Fours     1   Womens Team
Rowing Women Pairs   1     Jessica Morrison/Annabelle McIntyre
Rowing Women Single Sculls   1     Tara Rigney
Rowing Men Eights 1       Mens
Rowing Women Eights       1 Womens
Rugby 7s Men Teams       1 Mens team
Rugby 7s Women Teams       1 Womens
Sailing Women Skiff    1     Olivia Price/Evie Haseldine
Sailing Men ICLA Laser 1       Matt Wearn
Shooting Men Trap       1 Trap-James Willett
Shooting Women Trap     1   Laetisha Scanlan
Skateboarding Women Street Freestyle       1 Chloe Cavell
Skateboarding Women Park Freestyle     1   Arisa Trew
Skateboarding Men Park Freestyle 1       Keegan Palmer
Surfing Women Individual       1 Tyler Wright
Surfing Men Individual     1   Ethan Irwin
Swimming Men 400m Free 1   1   Samuel Short and Elijah Winnington 
Swimming Men 4x100m Free   1     Mens
Swimming Women 400m Free 1       Ariane Titmus
Swimming Women 4x100m Free 1       Women
Swimming Women 100m Fly       1 Emma McKeon
Swimming Men 200m Free       1 Maximillian Guiliani
Swimming Women 200m Free 1 1     Mollie O Callahan & Ariane Titmus
Swimming Women 400m IM       1 Jenna Forrester
Swimming Men 800m Free   1     Samuel Short 
Swimming Men 4x200m Free      1   Mens
Swimming Women 100m Back   1   1 Kaylee McKeown and Iona Anderson
Swimming Men 100m Free       1 Kyle Chalmers 
Swimming Men 200m Breast     1   Zac Stubblety Cook
Swimming Women 100m Free  1   1   Mollie O Callahan & Shayna Jack
Swimming Women 1500m Free     1   Lani Pallister
Swimming Women 200m Fly     1   Elizabeth Deckers
Swimming Women 4x200m Free  1       Women
Swimming Men 50m Free  1       Cam McEvoy 
Swimming Women 200m Back 1     1 Kaylee McKeown and Jaclyn Barclay
Swimming Men 100m Fly       1 Matt Temple
Swimming Women 800m Free   1     Ariane Titmus
Swimming Women 200m IM 1       Kaylee McKeown
Swimming Mixed 4x100 Med 1       Mixed
Swimming Men 1500m Free       1 Samuel Short 
Swimming Men 4x100 Med     1   Mens
Swimming Women 50m Free    1     Shayna Jack
Swimming Women 4x100 Med   1     Women
Swimming Women 10km    1     Chelsea Grubeka
Tennis Mixed Mixed Doubles       1 Ebden/Hunter
Tennis Women Doubles       1 Hunter/Perez
Water Polo Women Team       1 Womens
Weightlifting Women 81kg        1 Eileen Cikamatana
      Gold Silver Bronze Total  
      16 17 19 52  
Edited by dantm
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Swimming is the only discipline I’m well versed in so I’ll give my “contenders”. I’m being somewhat generous with these tbh.

 

Gold contenders

F

50 Free: 

100 Free: Mollie O’Callaghan, Shayna Jack

200 Free: Ariarne Titmus, Mollie O’Callaghan

400 Free: Ariarne Titmus

800 Free: Ariarne Titmus

1500 Free:

100 Back: Kaylee McKeown

200 Back: Kaylee McKeown

100 Fly: 

200 Fly: Lizzie Dekkers

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: 

200IM: Kaylee McKeown

400IM: 

4x100 Free: YES

4x200 Free: YES

Medley relay: (Only if USA is disqualified)

 

M

50 Free: Cam McEvoy

100 Free: Kyle Chalmers (extremely unlikely)

200 Free: 

400 Free: Sam Short, Elijah Winnington

800 Free: Sam Short

1500 Free:

100 Back: 

200 Back: 

100 Fly: Matt Temple (very outside)

200 Fly: 

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: Zac Stubblety-Cook

200IM: 

400IM: 

4x100 Free: No

4x200 Free: No

Medley relay: No

 

Medal contenders (not counting those in gold above)

F

50 Free: Shayna Jack, Meg Harris

100 Free: 

200 Free: 

400 Free:

800 Free: Lani Pallister

1500 Free: Lani Pallister

100 Back: Iona Anderson

200 Back: Jaclyn Barclay

100 Fly: 

200 Fly: 

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: 

200IM: 

400IM: 

4x100 Free: 

4x200 Free: 

Medley relay: Yes

 

M

50 Free: 

100 Free:

200 Free

400 Free:

800 Free: Elijah Winnington

1500 Free:

100 Back: 

200 Back: 

100 Fly: 

200 Fly: 

100 Breast: 

200 Breast: 

200IM: 

400IM: 

4x100 Free: Yes

4x200 Free: Yes

Medley relay: Yes

 

Plus a solid shot at Mixed Medley relay medal and outside shot at gold

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Posted (edited)

Our mixed medley team looks strong and on times,its very close to US

Kaylee

Sam 

Temple

MOC

 

If MOC is in touch when she jumps in,its game on.

Edited by dantm
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, dantm said:

Our mixed medley team looks strong and on times,its very close to US

Kaylee

Sam 

Temple

MOC

 

If MOC is in touch when she jumps in,its game on.

This is true but Temple looked terrible at trials, he’ll have a double with the 100 fly and Kaylee will have a double with the 2IM. Chinese team will be fully fresh. Would say outside chance of gold at best

Edited by Sub13
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Most of the men at trials didn't seem rested enough. Temple only recently went 50 low and there is no reason he cannot replicate in Paris.

The double taper with Trials/Worlds/Olympics has been in place since 2019 and it seems like it has worked in Australia's favour.

Ive got no doubt that Australia will step up again in Paris!

I just hope Europe and Asia do as well to keep the Americans at bay

 

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5 hours ago, dantm said:

Most of the men at trials didn't seem rested enough. Temple only recently went 50 low and there is no reason he cannot replicate in Paris.

The double taper with Trials/Worlds/Olympics has been in place since 2019 and it seems like it has worked in Australia's favour.

Ive got no doubt that Australia will step up again in Paris!

I just hope Europe and Asia do as well to keep the Americans at bay

 

There is part of me that believes we swam

in a very slow pool (women’s 200 free was really the only event faster than expected, maybe Kaylee 2IM) and weren’t fully rested, so maybe we’ll improve heaps in Paris. There’s also part of me that thinks I might be delusional. Surely none of the sprint free boys would risk not being tapered in such a close field.

 

However, that did kind of happen in Fukuoka so who knows. 
 

It would be so funny if all our swimmers who said “oh I’m really not happy with that time” and acted all sullen at trials all just went massive PBs in Paris. Like an orchestrated trolling.

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Is there an actual such thing as slow pools and fast pools? Like I know in the velodrome that’s a thing but in swimming? That would be interesting. 

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Nice explanation here

https://www.physioinqmcmahonspoint.com.au/blog/swimming-pool-technology-fast-pools-v-slow-pools#:~:text=First of all%2C a fast,resistance that slows swimmers down.
 

Chandler Pool is an old pool that does have depth changes.

its not ideal and shouldnt be used where every 100 of a second mattered in qualifying 

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I’m guessing they should’ve held the trials at SOPAC then? Which is newer

 

Even the southport pool seemed to be faster but its outdoors so that wouldn’t suit trials, but those times in April were crazy considering no one was tapered 

 

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SOPAC is nearly 30 years old but its still a fantastic pool.

it was designed based on those parameters from that article.

 

Definitely wouldve been a better option than Chandler.

 

 

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