[Vektor 3,195]

1. Rate the performance on a scale of 1-10

8/10

Obviously it wasn't perfect, but that almost never happens for any country, and I feel like 9 would be too high considering that our gold medal count is one of the lowest ever, even if that was to be expected. Still, great games for , highest number of total medals since 1996 and we won medals in 9 sports. 

 

2. What were the suprises and  heartbreaks ?

Biggest surprise is Vas in women's mountain bike, that came out of literally nowhere. Our most surprising medal is in karate, and Hárspataki achieved it with a last second ippon. Thankfully we don't have many heartbreaks, most of the athletes who didn't deliver are the ones who either already had success previously at the Games or will most likely get another chance later on. The only exception is Dávid Verrasztó, this was his last chance to win an Olympic medal, so it was sad to see him finishing 4th. He's now the best Hungarian swimmer who never won an Olympic medal. 

 

3.Was your country's goal achieved? 

According to our NOC the goal was to win at least 13 medals. We won 20 medals in Tokyo, so year, no complaints.

 

4. Which are the sports that will be invested more in future? 

Who knows? Maybe now that we won a medal in sailing something will start, but we are a landlocked country so I doubt that anything significant will happen in the future. The sport that will get more attention in the next cycle is going to be athletics because we will host the world championships in 2023 and oh boy, there definitely has to be some improvements because Hungarian athletics had an abysmal Olympic Games in Tokyo. 

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32 minutes ago, phelps said:

I just can't stop re-watching the Italian commentators' reactions in the last laps of the men's team pursuit on eurosport player...

 

they always make me cry because of the win, but also because how crazy they went...they almost destroyed the commentary box...

I am not surprised about that, I think that was the most intense, entertaining final of the Olympic Games even for neutrals. 

[Vektor 3,195]

On 15/07/2021 at 17:34, Vektor said:

Artistic Swimming, team 

 Artistic Swimming, duet

 Table Tennis, men's team

 Table Tennis, women's team

 Water polo, women's team

Heh, I guess I avoided RG and got 5/5. Artistic Swimming always seemed like the sport where the gold is more set in stone until the end of time and I didn't want to have 4  gold medals as the safest. 

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1 minute ago, Olympian1010 said:

The rumor was that the flag was supposed to be a real, and a huge stunt. I’m not sure what happened with that…I thought they did a test run last month. Clearly they had to pivot to the CGI version.

Hungarian commentator said that the weather conditions didn't make it possible. I am guessing the wind was too strong.

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1 minute ago, pdr4332 said:

I dont consider the situation so disappointing from perspective. We were 1 more gold medal away from 11th place. And the result we had in London (8-4-6) when we had 10th place in the totals, would land us 11th place as well

I didn't say that it's disappointing, on the contrary, I think what we have now in term of total medals (20) is the peak of what can be realistically achieved for us against nations who are far stronger economically. 

[Vektor 3,195]

What I find interesting is that non-European nations climbed over us compared to Rio, but we have the same placement on the European ranking behind the "Big 5" of           and the one mid-sized nation of . There's a big gap between these 6 European nations and the rest of Europe,  is in the middle of that gap. 

 

The Dutch are now what countries like      were not that long ago, they are now the country representing the mid-sized European nations (in terms of population) in the top10 of the medal table. The rise of Netherlands and fall of the Warsaw pact countries kinda represent how Western Europe has evolved over the years at the Summer Games while post-Soviet countries slowly lost their strength after the fall of communism. The Dutch are on the level in Tokyo where we were in Barcelona, for us that was the last time where we had a chance to realistically win 10+ gold and 30+ total medals, Tokyo might just be the start for Netherlands to win 30+ medals per SOG from now on. 

[Vektor 3,195]

I also added the gold and the total medal differentials to get a sense of who are the biggest winners and losers overall compared to Rio:

 

Biggest winners

+32 diff  

+30 diff  

+26 diff  

+19 diff  

+16 diff  

+14 diff  

+10 diff  

+8 diff  

+7 diff      

+6 diff            

+5 diff         

+4 diff                

+3 diff           

 

Biggest losers

-15 diff  

-13 diff  

-12 diff    

-9 diff       

-8 diff  

-7 diff  

-6 diff  

-5 diff    

-4 diff            

-3 diff          

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Rio/Tokyo comparison

 

Biggest winners in terms of gold medals:

+15 gold  

+12 gold

+9 gold  

+4 gold  

+3 gold        

+2 gold                    

 

Biggest losers in terms of gold medals:

-7 gold    

-5 gold  

-4 gold  

-3 gold      

-2 gold        

 

Biggest winners in terms of medals:

+18 medals  

+17 medals      

+15 medals  

+12 medals  

+9 medals   

+8 medals  

+6 medals      

+5 medals      

+4 medals        

+3 medals                

 

Biggest losers in terms of medals

-11 medals  

-10 medals  

-9 medals  

-8 medals    

-7 medals    

-5 medals  

-4 medals       

-3 medals        

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And now the ranking of the Top10 is finalized (hopefully not just for now)

 

  39 gold

  38 gold

  27 gold

  22 gold

  20 gold

  17 gold

  10 gold (12 silver, 14 bronze)

  10 gold (12 silver, 11 bronze)

  10 gold (11 silver)

  10 gold (10 silver)

[Vektor 3,195]

2 minutes ago, MagyarBabu said:

So who are the big losers?

 ,  ,  …? Maybe Indian shooters?

Yeah, those are the 3 nations I would mention. We had a lot of top nations who started weak but ended strong, multiple disasters avoided in the second week. 

[Vektor 3,195]

On 06/07/2021 at 11:30, Vektor said:

I am trying to be at least somewhat optimistic, so I am going with this kind of calculation for  

 

Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (2 gold)

•  Swimming, men's 200 fly
• Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m

 

Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (2 gold, 3 other medals)

• Fencing, men's team sabre
• Swimming, men's 100m butterfly
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m
• Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg

 

Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (2 gold, 10 other medals)

• Athletics, women's heptathlon
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m
• Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m
• Fencing, men's individual sabre
• Fencing, women's individual sabre
• Fencing, women's team sabre
• Judo, men's 90kg
• Modern Pentathlon, women's individual
• Modern Pentathlon, men's individual
• Sailing, men's finn
• Shooting, men's 10m air rifle
• Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos
• Swimming, men's 400m IM
• Swimming, women's 400m IM
• Swimming, women's 200m fly
• Swimming, women's 10km
• Swimming, men's 10km
• Water Polo, men's
• Water Polo, women's
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg
• Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg

 

Gold medals: 2+2+2 = 6

Other medals: 3+10 = 13

 

Overall medal count: 19

 

So in terms of gold medals less than what we are used to but in terms of the overall medal count this would be the best since 1996. Makes sense to me, we don't have many undeniable favorites, but have a solid number of medal contenders, maybe more than in the last few Olympic cycles. 

lol, I can't believe that I almost got it right.  I projected 6 gold and 19 total medals and we ended up with 6 gold and 20 total medals. I thought that this was a mildly optimistic projection, my realistic projection was 5 gold and 15 total medals, which for me shows that we did really well.

 

Here's the recap with the results added:

 

Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (projection: 2 gold / result: 2 gold)

•  Swimming, men's 200 fly - GOLD
• Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m - GOLD

 

Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (projection: 2 gold, 3 other medals / result: 2 gold, 4 other medals)

• Fencing, men's team sabre - BRONZE
• Swimming, men's 100m butterfly - SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m - GOLD, SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m - BRONZE
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg - GOLD

 

Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (projection: 2 gold, 10 other medals / result: 2 gold, 9 other medals)

• Athletics, women's heptathlon - 13th
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m - 6th
• Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m - GOLD
• Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m - SILVER
• Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m - 5th
• Fencing, men's individual sabre - GOLD
• Fencing, men's individual epée - SILVER
• Fencing, women's individual sabre - 4th
• Fencing, women's team sabre - 8th
• Judo, men's 90kg - BRONZE
• Modern Pentathlon, women's individual - BRONZE
• Modern Pentathlon, men's individual - 6th
• Sailing, men's finn - SILVER
• Shooting, men's 10m air rifle - 5th
• Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos - 10th
• Swimming, men's 400m IM - 4th
• Swimming, women's 400m IM - 5th
• Swimming, women's 200m fly - 4th
• Swimming, women's 10km - 4th
• Swimming, men's 10km - SILVER
• Water Polo, men's - BRONZE
• Water Polo, women's - BRONZE
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg - 12th
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg - SILVER
• Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg - 5th

 

Events with a small chance for a medal (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 medal, plus a couple of good results)

• Karate, kumite, 75kg - BRONZE
• Canoe Sprint, men's K2 1000m - 4th
• Taekwondo, men's 58kg - 5th
• Judo, women's 52kg - 5th
• Swimming, men's 4x100m freestyle relay - 5th
• Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 97kg - 5th

 

Events with zero chance for anything (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 completely unexpected 4th place)

• Cycling - Mountain Bike, women's - 4th

[Vektor 3,195]

4 minutes ago, konig said:

by the way, are you satisfied with your country performance in the medal count?

Absolutely, we did really well. The 8 gold medals of the previous two Games were impossible to repeat, I feel like those two Games were a bit of a fluke for us, 5-6 gold medals are the realistic target for Hungary in the 21st century. In term of total medals this is our best Games since 1996. 

[Vektor 3,195]

6 minutes ago, konig said:

Its curious but im thinking just the opposite in this days, if USA doesnt do something, in the OG China will defeat them in Paris 2024, not of course in LA 2028.

I just feel like a lot has to go wrong for the US, but we will see what happens at the WChs in the next two years. 

[Vektor 3,195]

Now that it's very likely decided, unless China pulls off that gold in boxing while the US doesn't win anything else, I must say, I am not sure if China will get another opportunity like this in the near future. I doubt that the US will have another messy SOG like Tokyo so close to LA2028. This was China's chance, they have blown it by losing gold medals in diving, badminton, table tennis and weightlifting (obviously the US lost a lot more gold medals where they were the favorites, but that just shows that they still stronger than China at the Summer Games, they can afford to lose more and still win in the end)

[Vektor 3,195]

1 minute ago, pdr4332 said:

Greece isn't in the continental time zone either. They are ahead of us 1 hour like Romania, Finland etc. But it did not matter like I'd did not matter with the -1 hour difference in London. It was one of the many factors why for me London was the greatest Olympics of the XXI century

Oh right, I always forget that Greece isn't in our time zone. I guess this means that Paris2024 is the first SOG in CET since 1992. 

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I think I have never been as tired by the end of Games before, it's most likely because I had to wake up around 1am for almost 3 weeks and I am not as young as I was during Bejing 2008, so I am a bit glad that it's over and I can go back to my normal sleep cycle. Thank God that I don't have to do this again until 2032, there's no way that I will wake up in the middle of the night so many times during Beijing 2022. I am also a bit less sad than usual because the next Summer Games is only 3 years away and it's finally going to be in my time zone for the first time since 2004, my only little worry is that Tokyo was the last great SOG for Hungary and the next Olympic cycle will start a downward trajectory. But I had the same feeling after Rio and we did well in Tokyo, so who knows, maybe we can keep going like this, with hopefully some improvements (I am looking at you, Hungarian athletics). 

[Vektor 3,195]

Hungarian medals in 8 different sports now, which is just simply amazing, the opposite of Rio where I was disappointed by most of the Hungarian Olympic team because we only won medals in 4 sports and our performance was only strong thanks to a very few individuals (most notably Hosszú and Kozák). 

[Vektor 3,195]

24 minutes ago, Pifta said:

And why do they write only English letters in names? Why do they ignore letters like á, é, ö, or ř, š, đ, and so on?

All the TV graphics are in English, therefore everyone's name is "translated" to that language. This means that for some languages certain letters get changed ("á" to "a"), while for others, like Russian, you get a name with completely different letters. 

[Vektor 3,195]

Is  still on pace to win the medal table? Because it looks like to me that they have more gold medal chances coming up in the last few days than  and the 5 gold difference isn't that large. 

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Before the Games I thought that the realistic, not great, not terrible projection for  is 5 gold and 15 total medals. We are at 5 gold and 15 total medals, from now on we can't say that this is a bad outcome for us given the current strengths and weaknesses of the Hungarian Olympic team. 

 

We have the same number of medals as in Rio and much more 4th* places, I think it's safe to say that in many ways we are performing on the same level as Rio, if not better, we are just a bit short on gold medals. 

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Now that we are up to 10 on that 4th place counter here is the comparison of bronze and 4th* places.

 

(Bronze/4th*)

 

  21/23

  13/15

  7/14

  17/13

  16/12

  15/11

  9/11

  7/11

  11/10

  8/10

  3/10

 

Oh God why... By far the worst ratio among the top countries in the 4th* place counter. We would have 2 more bronze medals if we would tie this worst ratio with . 

[Vektor 3,195]

On 02/08/2021 at 11:58, Vektor said:

The next day will decide how good this SOG will be for Hungary, it's truly a Super Tuesday. The wrestling final of Tamás Lőrincz, the medal race of Zsombor Berecz, 3 Canoe Sprint finals where we can win (gold) medals, and maybe one more medal chance in wrestling with Alex Szőke in the repechages. Plus we will also play our QF against Netherlands in women's water polo. If we don't win at least one gold tomorrow, I will accept that at best we will have 3 gold in the end or maybe only 2. 

Well, that was indeed a Super Tuesday for us, 2 gold, 2 silver, 1 bronze, plus Viktor Lőrincz secured the next wrestling medal/final and the women's water polo team won their QF. 

[Vektor 3,195]

The next day will decide how good this SOG will be for Hungary, it's truly a Super Tuesday. The wrestling final of Tamás Lőrincz, the medal race of Zsombor Berecz, 3 Canoe Sprint finals where we can win (gold) medals, and maybe one more medal chance in wrestling with Alex Szőke in the repechages. Plus we will also play our QF against Netherlands in women's water polo. If we don't win at least one gold tomorrow, I will accept that at best we will have 3 gold in the end or maybe only 2. 

[Vektor 3,195]

Yeah, this can be surprisingly close, disappointing Games for the Americans even if they win the medal table in the end. 

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We are done for today and we won't win any medals tomorrow, so I want to compare the last few Games for us after Day 9.

 

2004: 2-4-1 (0-1-1 in swimming, 1-2-0 in fencing, 1-0-0 in shooting, 0-1-0 in weightlifting)

2008: 0-4-1 (0-3-0 in swimming, 0-0-1 in fencing, 0-1-0 in wrestling)

2012: 4-1-3 (1-0-1 in swimming, 1-0-0 in fencing, 1-0-0 in athletics, 1-0-0 in gymnastics, 0-1-1 in judo, 0-0-1 in wrestling)

2016: 5-3-4 (3-2-2 in swimming, 2-1-1 in fencing, 0-0-1 in athletics)

2020: 2-2-2 (1-1-0 in swimming, 1-1-1 in fencing, 0-0-1 in judo)

 

So yeah, this ain't great, but I always thought that the second week is stronger for us this time. The problem is that I am not all that confident about how Canoe Sprint will go for us, we can easily end up with only 1 gold medal, and at that point we are looking at a repeat of Beijing. It's safe to say that this most likely won't be a great Olympic Games for , unless a miracle happens in the last 7 days and everything goes right for us, like in Athens. 

 

I would also like to say that the first thing I noted about Rio 5 years ago that Hosszú and Kozák saved us, and that if our Olympic team can't step up their game for Tokyo, the next Games won't go all that well for Hungary. Well, here we are, and it isn't going as well as Rio, this is what happens when we don't have that many world class athletes anymore at their best, we don't have Berki and Pars anymore, and Hosszú is also done collecting gold medals. We have very few events this time where we are among the favorites for the gold.