The probability of winning a medal in the men's 500m also seems a bit off   

66% chance for a medal in moguls seems low though...   Men's relay being 5th in short track, and Clarke only having a 0.5% chance at a medal also seem off   Why is ski mountaineering there, we didn't even qualify anyone 

This is an awesome site for medal projections thanks for sharing    I hope we can improve on Beijing with 27-28, but I'd be more than happy with 26 with the injuries. 

Triathlon The mixed relay qualification event was removed so the rankings will decide 8 teams. Additionally, the five continents are to be represented in mixed relay provided they are in the top 15.   In the individual side, the continental games will qualify the highest ranked nation not yet qualified (New Flag) provided that the athlete ranks in the top 160. This goes along with the "New Flag" rankings we've seen in the past.

canoe slalom competitor Gabriela Satkova retired at the age of 24. 

Tennis The ranking limit for the ITF Places has increased from 400 to 500. Additionally, Pan America lost one of its ITF Places and it was reallocated to the Pacific Games.  

Seems fair to me. I actually think, given the six team limit, this is sort of the ideal qualification system (for any sport with six quotas).

Lacrosse This is a new sport. Here's how the quota breakdown looks like.   Host Nation - 1 World Championships - 4 Final Qualifying Tournament - 1   The host nation must participate at the Continental Championships and World Championships in order to get the quota. This will satisfy the continental representation. Additionally only a maximum of 3 nations from a single continent can qualify.   The World Championships will be awarded in such a way that all four continental federations are represented (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Pan America if the United States doesn't get the host nation quota), but only if the team finished in the top 12. Any remaining quotas will be allocated to the highest ranked nation.   The Final Qualifying Tournament will consist of the top six nations at the World Championships which failed to qualify (provided no continent qualified three nations already).