I agree, there is no real massive improvement, its only incremental. The jump in numbers is largely due to Women Hokey Team and Athletics, both of which don't seem to be genuine medal contenders (I hope and wish that I am wrong). But, have positive implications for posterity should they build on the good work off late.
But I definitely believe Yogeshwar Dutt will get a Gold, the progress and the buildup including training and mindset appears to have analogy with the Abhinav Bindra's strategy of experimenting new methods and the determination factor as elucidated in his book, " A Shot at History: My Obsessive Journey to Olympic Gold " (I read the book 4 times)
As far others are concerned, Shooters and Archery will produce some medals, the color of which depends on the mindset and luck. But we do have world standard players and Olympics have less competition vis-a-vis ISSF World Cups.
I have feeling inside that Dipa Karkarmar will get Gymnastics medal. That would be one of the stories of the whole Olympics competition at Rio itself.
Sindu, Men Hockey and Tennis mixed doubles depend upon the day, their mood and the inspiration. Can be anything between last and first. Highly mercurial dark horses.
Saina does have chances, but have a feeling that people have read her game. But she is a gutsy lady. She need to do justice for herself by innovation. might face hurdles at QF.
boxing and other wrestlers may get "some" bronze medals.