cjsavory

Drove back to our Airbnb an hour west of Paris through sheet lightning and (eventually) torrential rain. Luckily, the lightning map on my phone showed all the storm activity missing the city itself, so...maybe?

Going to be a nervy second run for Joe Clarke in the Canoe Slalom. 50pt penalty on Run #1. Only has to finish in the top 20 (of 24) to advance, but means he can't afford any big errors.

Fantastic final quarter, and an epic last five minutes from the GB boys, who were actually very solid throughout (a distinct improvement in overall gameplay from the first two games). Very encouraging.

Enjoying my first Paris 2024 experience so far!

Question of the Day Artistic Gymnastics: Can we get a medal? NO Badminton: Does Gilmour win a game? NO Canoe Slalom: Is CLARKE in the top ten? YES Cycling BMX Freestyle: Is REILLY in the top five? YES Equestrian: Our the TEAM in the top three at the end of the day? YES Hockey: Do they win? NO Judo: Does Renshall fight in the evening session? NO Rowing: Do they make the final? YES Rugby Sevens: Do we come 5th? NO Sailing: Is WILSON in a medal position by the end of the day? YES Shooting: Do either of our MEN make the final? YES Swimming: Gold for the RELAY team? YES Tennis: Do the MEN'S DOUBLES team go through? YES Triathlon: Medal for YEE? YES

At this rate, we will walk the 4x200m, and I wouldn't rule out a (minor) medal for Richards in the 100 Free. Peaty's Covid test also put his performance last night into perspective - he briefly alluded to a scratchy throat post-race, and I don't think it's a stretch to say he'd have taken Gold by a tenth or two if he'd been at 100%. Gymnastics a bit annoying, but posting a 255.5 with one pretty big mistake on Vault, and only dropping one point from Qualifying with all scores counting (for context, China dropped 4, Japan 1, Italy 1.5, Switzerland 2.2, and Canada 2.4), is still pretty darn good. No shame in losing the Bronze to a USA team that improved its score by *4.6* points.

Evans Cycles to be liquidated, all Halfords stores repurposed as Showjumping arenas.

Archery: Can we beat Chinese Taipei? NO Artistic Gymnastics: Do we get a medal? NO Badminton: Does GILMOUR win her game? YES Boxing: Does Orie win? YES Canoe Slalom: Does Burgess win a medal? NO Cycling Mountain Bike: Do we win a gold medal? YES Equestrian: Does the TEAM win a gold medal? YES Hockey: Do the team avoid defeat? NO Judo: Will Nairne fight in the afternoon session? NO Rowing: Do we get a clean sweep of advancements again? YES Rugby Sevens: Do we make the top two in the group? YES Sailing: Will the WOMEN'S SKIFF team be in the top ten at the end of the day? YES Shooting: Are either of our guys in a top eight position by the end of the day? NO Swimming: Do we get a medal in the Men's 200m Freestyle? YES Table Tennis: Does Pitchford win? YES Tennis: Does the DOUBLES team win their match? YES

Ha, I'm willing to jinx it and say our THREE gold medals tomorrow will be Pidcock, Team Eventing and Collett!

Four medals on the first two days - first time we've done that in the modern two-week Games, apparently!

GB Men's hockey team channelling their English football counterparts, and making heavy work of a theoretically inferior opponent: 1-0 down at HT vs South Africa.

Absolutely gutted for him - so effing close

One of the most thrilling events of the whole Games, and what a fantastic (bonus!) bronze.

Couple of bullets dodged for Becky Downie, with both of the Dutch gymnasts who made the Uneven Bars Final at Worlds last year failing to beat her score. She's now 6th with two subdivisions to go (level on 14.666 with the Italian in 5th, but annoyingly behind on execution score), and maybe 4-5 more gymnasts who look capable of challenging her score.

Any idea whether that's an assessed penalty, or just the app catching up with penalties she accrued during her round?

I'd say we're likely to lose to Argentina and Australia, and beat South Africa. So we need to finish ahead of one of Spain or USA, and those both feel like 50:50 games.

Cutoff in Tokyo was 14.56 - not directly comparable, obviously (4 Russian gymnast scored higher, so only 2 went through), but does suggest it'll be close.

Archery: Can we beat Germany? No Artistic Gymnastics: Who is the top Brit (All-around) after qualifying? Kinsella Badminton: Can Lane and Vendy win at least one game today? No Boxing: How many wins do our boxers get today? None Canoe Slalom: Can Woods get a medal? No Cycling Mountain Bike: Can we get a top 5 finish? Yes Equestrian: Does our TEAM stay in a medal position at the end of the day? Yes Hockey: Do the WOMEN win? No (draw) Judo: Can Giles get a medal? Yes Rowing: Is it another clean sweep of advancements today? Yes Rugby Sevens: How many wins do we get? 0 Sailing: Do all four teams get through to at LEAST the quarterfinal (Windsurfing) and medal race (Skiff)? Yes Shooting: Do we get at least one medal today? No Swimming: Does Peaty win gold? Yes Table Tennis: Can Hursey get a win? No Tennis: Do Evans and Murray go through? Yes

Because we missed an outside shot at a minor relay medal? OK...

Artistic Gymnastics: Which Brit gets the most total points (all-around)? Jarman Badminton: Do Lane and Vendy win at least one game? Yes (they win the match) Boxing: Does Davison advance? Yes (think she might get a medal) Canoe Slalom: Do they both get through the heats? Yes Cycling Road: Do we get a medal? Yes, Tarling Diving: Medal today, yes or no? No, they just miss out Equestrian: Are the team in a medal position by the end of the day? Yes Hockey: Do we win our opener? Yes, 3-1 Rowing: Is it a clean sweep of advancing to the next round? Yes Shooting: Do the mixed relay team get to the final stage (top four)? No Swimming: How many RELAY medals do we get today? One, Men's 4x100 (bronze) Tennis: How many of the four Brits win our games? Three - Norrie or Boulter will miss out (though given the weather forecast, not all those matches will finish - or even start - today)

Go on then, final prediction on Team medals: 1. Athletics - 10 Medals, 3 Gold (Keeley, either Kerr or MHS, either Caudery or a relay) 2. Cycling (Track) - 9M, 4G (Finucane, Women's Team Pursuit, Men's Madison, + 1 other) 3. Rowing - 7M, 4G (Women's Pair, Four, Lightweight Double Sculls, Men's Pair) 4. Swimming - 7M, 3G (Proud, Peaty, Men's 4x200m Free) 5. Canoe Kayak - 5M, 2G (Clarke, either Woods or Franklin) 6. Sailing - 4M, 1G (Wilson), Triathlon - 4M, 1G (Yee) 7. Diving - 4M, 0G 8. Equestrian (Eventing) - 3M, 2G (Individual, Team) 9. Gymnastics (Artistic) - 3M, 1G (Whitlock) 10. Modern Pentathlon - 2M, 1G (Choong), Cycling (BMX) - 2M, 1G (Reilly), Cycling (MB) - 2M, 1G (Pidcock) 11. Boxing, Equestrian (Dressage), Equestrian (Jumping), Taekwondo, Judo - 2M, 0G 12. Gymnastics (Trampolining) - 1M, 1G (Page) 13. Artistic Swimming, Cycling (Road), Golf, Hockey, Shooting, Skateboarding, Sport Climbing, Weightlifting - 1M, 0G 25 Gold 27 Silver 29 Bronze 81 Medals - seems too high, tbh, and I may come to regret being so bullish when we limp in at 14 golds and 57 medals overall, but if you can't summon a bit of optimism with 2 hours to go till the Opening Ceremony, when can you?!

At the 2023 Worlds, Penny Healey was 5th in the Ranking round with a score of 664 - today she was 52nd with a score of 631. Can only imagine that's nerves, which is not exactly surprising for a 19yo at her first Olympics!

Speaking of Archery...less than 30 mins now till the first Paris 2024 session with British participants! LFG Penny, Bryony and Megan! Ranking round should give us at least a bit of a clue to whether the British women will be involved at the sharp end of things next week.

It is, and the Women's team have been amazing in successive Games (definitely time for the Men to step up!). But England Hockey is pretty well-resourced, and the current squad is not dominated by either youngsters or veterans - it has a core of players who are a good age, and just haven't pushed on. As a hockey player myself, I'm probably being hyper-critical though!

Decline in performance of the Women's team has been one of the bigger disappointments of this Olympic cycle. Gold in Rio, bronze in Tokyo (and I'd have backed them to reach the Final if they'd been on the other half of the knockout draw), but absolutely nowhere this time round. Maybe an exaggeration to say they'll be lucky to get out of the group, but it also wouldn't be a huge surprise if they didn't (I don't see them beating Australia or Argentina, Spain is 50:50, and they lost to the US as recently as June). Either way, a medal feels a long way off.