All the wheels falling off for Black now… under all kinds of pressure, a Brothers double really helped them out but
I was bored so I decided to do a quota simulation before the winter World Cup season officially starts.
Using @Topicmaster1010’s format, hope you don’t mind.
I’m predicting 211 athletes in 14 sports, for 104 men and 107 women, a decrease of - athletes from Beijing 2022.
Alpine Skiing (12 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 13 (5 men + 8 women)
Decrease of 1 athlete from 2022.
For the men, Cameron Alexander and Jack Crawford will for sure qualify barring injury. Jeffery Read, Brodie Seger, Broderick Thompson as well. Riley Seger probably will get the sixth quota. For the women, Valerie Grenier, Alli Nullmeyer, Laurence St Germain, Britt Richardson, Cassidy Gray, and Raphael Lessard.
Biathlon (8 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 8 (4 men + 4 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 8 (4 men + 4 women)
We qualified 4 in each gender through the Nations Cup Rankings. Men just barely made it.
Women’s team will probably be Peiffer, Rousseau, Paradis, Moser. Men’s team is less certain, but I’m guessing Connelly, Runnals, Pletz, Borglum (we only have three competing at the first WC…)
Bobsleigh (15 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 13 (8 men + 7 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 18 (12 men + 6 women)
Our men’s team is on a major fall with the retirement of Kripps, so only Pat Norton and Taylor Austin in four-men (although maybe Norton won’t?, not sure what the rankings are looking like)
On the women’s side, I have Appiah/Lotholz representing us in monobob, very tough to tell though. Completely unsure as who the two-women teams but if we’re basing it off the evaluation selection races (because I don’t know nearly enough about bobsleigh) I think it’ll be Ribi/Richardson Wilson, Bujnowski/Mitchell and Sieben/Lotholz, mind you this is based off of absolutely nothing. I am curious about why Walkeden/Haughey disappeared though.
That would be 7 women and 8 men for a total of 15, down 3 from Beijing 2022.
Cross-Country Skiing (11 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 11 (5 men + 6 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 9 (4 men + 5 women)
Four quotas per gender are official. Sonjaa Schmidt, Liliane Gagnon, Katherine Stewart-Jones, Alison Mackie should make up the women’s team. Antoine Cyr, Oliver Leveille, Xavier McKeever, Remi Drolet should make up the men’s team. Going out on a limb here, think Graham Richie might be on the team as well? Have Olivia Bouffard-Nesbitt and Jasmine Drolet also on the team.
Curling (12 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 12 (6 men + 6 women)
Peterman/Gallant have already qualified, Homan will almost surely qualify, and I have Dunstone winning Olympic Trials so that would be another max team. But between Dunstone, Jacobs, Epping, McEwen and Gushue I could see anyone winning (and even Koe at this stage, with his win over Jacobs at OT)
Figure Skating (12 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 13 (7 men + 6 women)
Already secured one men’s quota, one women’s quota, two pairs quotas, and three ice dance quotas, which is our final team through the results of World Championships.
Probablt Madeline Schizas for the women’s spot, barring something unprecedented from Kaiya Ruiter, Gaby Daleman, or Sara-Maude Dupuis. For the men’s spot, Stephen Gogolev is the front-runner with Roman Sadovsky right behind him, and maybe Keegan Messing can insert himself into the mix. Pairs is locked in with Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps and Pereira/Michaud and so is ice dance with Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha and Fabbri/Ayer.
Freestyle Skiing (32 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 32 (16 men + 16 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 32 (16 men + 16 women)
Almost surely going to qualify 32, but almost impossible to predict who will qualify in terms of athletes on the bubble because we would be qualifying much much more if there wasn’t a cap.
Men:
Aerials (3): Alexandre Duchaine, Lewis Irving, Miha Fontaine
Moguls (3): Mikael Kingsbury, Julien Viel, Elliot Vaillancourt
Ski Cross (4): Reece Howden, Kevin Drury, Jared Schmidt, Kristofer Mahler
Halfpipe (3): Brendan MacKay, Andrew Longino, Noah Bowman
Slopestyle/Big Air (2): Evan McEachran, Dylan Deschamps, Max Moffatt
Women:
Aerials (2): Marion Thenault, Charlie Fontaine
Moguls (4): Maia Schwinghammer, Laurianne Desmarais-Gilbert, Ashley Koehler, Jessica Linton
Ski Cross (4): India Sherret, Marielle Thompson, Hannah Schmidt, Brittany Phelan (No Courtney Hoffos notably)
Halfpipe (4): Cassie Sharpe, Rachael Karker, Amy Fraser, Dillan Glennie
Slopestyle/Big Air (2): Megan Oldham, Olivia Asselin
Very possible that Elena Gaskell makes it instead of Linton or Koehler. Rowell, Katrusiak, Beatty, Porter MacLennan, Therriault, Primeau, David-Chalifoux, Hoffos, McEwen, Urness, both Marineaus all miss out.
Ice Hockey (48 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 48 (25 men + 23 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 48 (25 men + 23 women)
Maybe I’ll do roster predictions eventually, but even with my knowledge I almost always get it wrong so… 
Luge (7 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 7 (3 men + 4 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 6 (3 men + 3 women)
Caitlin Nash and Embyr-Lee Susko in women’s singles (Trinity Ellis misses out), one of Dylan Morse/Theo Downey in men’s singles, Wardrope/Zajanski in men’s doubles, and Podulsky/Allan in women’s doubles.
Nordic Combined (0 athletes)
We are a complete joke at this sport and won’t be qualifying anyone in the next 10000000 years or so
Short Track (10 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 10 (5 men + 5 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 10 (5 men + 5 women)
Projected # of events in 2026: 9
# of events in 2022: 9
Full team pretty much secured. Florence Brunelle, Kim Boutin, Courtney Sarault and Danae Blais will be four of those five women, and the final spot will come down to Rikki Doak/Anne Sophie-Bachand (most likely the former, depending on injury)
For the men, William Dandjinou, Felix Roussel, JPG, Steven Dubois, Maxime Laoun will be the relay barring injury. Mathieu Pelletier will be the front runner based off results at the Canadian Championships.
Skeleton (4 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 4 (2 men + 2 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 3 (1 men + 2 women)
A few weeks ago I would’ve said only Halle Clarke and Jane Chanell, but Ryan Kuehn, Josip Brusic, and Zander Greco have been doing good on the NOR-AM circuit and could possibly get us two quotas?
Ski Jumping (4 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 4 (1 men + 3 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 3 (1 men + 2 women)
With Loutitt being injured, think Abigail Strate, Nicole Maurer, Natalie Eilers, and Mackenzie Boyd-Clowes will qualify.
Ski Mountaineering (0 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 0 (0 men + 0 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 0
Can’t be optimistic about everything. We’re only one point ahead of US for the mixed relay continental quota and there’s only one race to go which they have home crowd advantage, don’t see it happening.
Snowboarding (22 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 21 (10 men + 12 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 23 (11 men + 12 women)
Men:
Parallel Giant Slalom (2): Arnaud Gaudet, Ben Heldman
Snowboard Cross (3): Eliot Grondin, Evan Bichon, Liam Moffatt
Slopestyle/Big Air (4): Cameron Spalding, Liam Brearley, Mark McMorris, Eli Bouchard
Halfpipe (1): Liam Gill (13th at last World Championships)
Women:
Parallel Giant Slalom (3): Aurelie Moisan, Kaylie Buck, Megan Farrell
Snowboard Cross (3): Meryeta Odine, Audrey McManiman, Tess Critchlow
Halfpipe (3): Elizbeth Hosking, Felicity Geremia, Brooke Dhondt
Slopestyle/Big Air (3): Laurie Blouin, Jasmine Baird, Juliette Pelchat
No Francis Jobin, either of the Savard-Fergusson’s, Emeraude Maheux, Nicolas Laframboise, Ryan Vo,
Speed Skating (14 athletes)
Projected Athletes in 2026: 14 (7 men + 7 women)
# of athletes in 2022: 16 (8 men + 8 women)
Men:
500m (3): Laurent Dubreuil, Christopher Fiola, Cedric Brunet
1000m (2): Laurent Dubreuil, Anders Johnson
1500m (2): David la Rue, Antoine Gelinas-Beaulieu
5000m (1): Ted-Jan Bloemen, Graeme Fish
10000m (1): Ted-Jan Bloemen
Mass Start (3): David la Rue, Antoine Gelinas-Beaulieu, Jake Weidemann
Women:
500m (3): Carolina Hiller, Beatrice Lamarche, Brooklyn McDougall
1000m (2): Beatrice Lamarche, Alexa Scott
1500m (2): Ivanie Blondin, Beatrice Lamarche?
3000m (3): Isabelle Weidemann, Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais
5000m (2): Isabelle Weidemann, Ivanie Blondin
Mass Start (2): Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais
No Connor Howe, in terrible form, possibly due to an injury? Same with Graeme Fish, Daniel Hall, Madison Pearman. Don’t think our men’s team pursuit will qualify either.
Brooklyn McDougall and Alexa Scott have done well enough these first few World Cups to warrant a spot on the team.