Team 
Olympic Medal Projections/Prediction
We're only a few days out from the Olympics (I started this a while ago) so I decided to do a medal prediction for Canada! 
These predictions are based off form from this season and last season (only in some cases), recent injuries, other relevant information, and for the judged sports, I'm actually going to test something out to more accurately project whether their scores would be enough to podium or if their WC/WCHs/X Games podiums were benefited by smaller fields/some of the bigger names missing out, it's flawed slightly but...
I put a lot of effort into this, hours and hours of work, hopefully you'll appreciate this 
Alpine Skiing
Pedestrian start to the WC season in terms of medals to say the least, only a single bronze in giant slalom by Val Grenier but it was on her home slope. Usually we've won a few more. With that being said, we've been recording a bunch of top 15 finishes this season, and a medal at the Olympics is definitely possible. All of our podium hopes rest on Valerie Grenier, Cameron Alexander, and Laurence St-Germain. Alexander is finally starting to find his form a few weeks out from the Olympics, his last three races were an overall SB of 7th in the Wengen downhill, a SB in super-G of 11th in Kitzbuehl, and a 14th in downhill also in Kitzbuehl, he's recorded five top 15 finishes in 10 WC events this season and a further two top 16s. By far our biggest medal hope has to be Grenier though, with one bronze, four top 10s, and eight top 20s in her 15 races this season. All of her top 10 finishes have come in giant slalom, her specialty event, that's the event to keep an eye out for her. St-Germain is another one to watch for, she's raced 5 times this season and while she has yet to crack the top 10, she has four top 15 finishes and a 22nd. Crawford is too out of form probably, but alpine skiing can be unpredictable so who knows.
Prediction: Bronze for Cameron Alexander in downhill
Biathlon
No chance only if 10 of the teams disappeared out of nowhere/withdrew from sickness or something 
but interestingly enough we were 2nd after the 3rd shoot in the women's relay at the Hochfilzen WC, we'll ignore the complete disaster that saw them miss three times in the final shoot? They definitely have what it takes to pull off a big surprise. Unfortunately, I think that was a massive fluke and I’d be happy to finish top 12 or better at the Olympics.
Prediction: 0 medals.
Bobsleigh
Melissa Lotholz has been building a super consistent WC campaign with a bunch of 5th and 6ths so far (only outliers being an 18th in Sigulda where she crashed and a 16th in Winterberg, there's been a lot of races though), but has still yet to step on the podium. I'm going to say that she'll be a few tenths off, but miss out again.
Prediction: 0 medals.
Cross Country Skiing
Probably not. For the women, Alison Mackie and Katherine Stewart-Jones have been having strong seasons, Mackie even a career best season, but realistically top 15/20 finishes are what you can hope for out of them, maybe a singular top 10 for Mackie as well. Antoine Cyr/Sonjaa Schmidt are in worse form than last season, so top 25/30 for them. But given it's the Olympics, figure I may as well add some surprises in there.
Prediction: Shocking bronze medal 
for Alison Mackie in 10km interval start free
Curling
Imagine a world where losing in the quarterfinals and semifinals of a GSOC event is considered a dissapointment. Well, that's exactly what happened to Team Homan the last two GSOC events after having an outstanding last few seasons since 2023-24, barely losing any matches. She's still by far the odds on favourite for gold, most of her losses have came to teams that won't be at the Olympics (Fujisawa, Einarson, Wranå), and she has a psychological advantage against her biggest "rival" Team Tirinzoni having a dominant 13-2 head-to-head record, 8-2 in finals. She probably has a higher chance of losing to Gim or Hasselborg. The GSOC 8-end/shootout rules means you can't always read too much into the results, but Jacobs was 1-4 at the Players Championship, and fell in the quarterfinals at the Canadian Open after starting 3-1... not a good sign. Team Jacobs has been having a great season for the most part but struggled at their most recent event the Players Championships (to be fair it was right after Trials), interesting bit of information from Devin that Jacobs fasted for 110 hours up until today, according to him he's feeling "lean and strong" If that'll translate to an Olympic medal I'm not sure, but I think it will and the performance at the recent GSOC event was a matter of fatigue. Our mixed doubles pairing, Jocelyn Peterman/Brett Gallant have won a lot of their matches this year, and made it to the final of the recently concluded Sherwood Park Mixed Doubles Classic (where they beat the Lotts, lost to Matsumura/Tanida in the final who won't be at the Olympics), but most of their opponents were ranked way below them, 7/10 duos are in contention for medals, and Constantini/Mosaner probably have the gold locked up (with Dodds/Mouat a slight favourite over the rest for silver, and the Schwallers in 7th only slightly because they haven't had the best season)
Prediction: Team Homan for gold, and I'm going to say Team Jacobs for bronze?
Figure Skating
There's a few semi-decent chances, but don't see it happening. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier are our biggest hope but the judges have some kind of bias against them with them getting screwed at Finlandia Trophy, it was a big controversy. Stellato Dudek/Deschamps and the team event are long shots. Deanna Stellato Dudek/Maxime Deschamps have been up and down this season, but mainly down, they'll need to skate clean and probably hope there's some falls in other top pairings to get on the podium, and in the team event Japan/US/Georgia/Italy are all favoured over us. Gogolev had a great skate at Nationals, which would've been enough for bronze at Worlds, but probably got a home boost.
Prediction: First Olympics in a while that we don't win a medal in figure skating? (Yes, I know we didn't in 2022, technically. I still count it regardless, Russia should've been disqualified...)
Freestyle Skiing
The event with the most Canadian medal chances, besides maybe short track.
For this, and in snowboarding, I decided to calculate World Cup scores from the last two seasons (including the 2026 X Games, by calculating the two best scores) and the last World Championship, and averaging it out while adding a points to accurately determine the average of what it'll take to podium at the Olympics and whether the WC podiums were being benefited by big names missing out.
Side note, next time around if I do this again I might value the major Championships/X Games/WCs differently for these predictions, and do a limit for discards (more for previous seasons, unless injury hampering them early season)
According to the WC/WCHs/X Games scores from the last two seasons here's the projected Olympic title/medal scores by scoring events, adding a few points onto them for Olympic performance and more if unusually low scores (for newer names/breakout stars, only including scores from this season in predictions)
Moguls (adjusted with 1.5 PTS to gold, 1 PT for medalists, with the absence of Mik this season) - Men; Gold- 86.73, Silver- 83.62, Bronze- 81.46
Slopestyle (adjusted with 1 PT to gold/silver, 2 PTS to bronze, highly doubted the previous bronze score will be enough) - Women; Gold- 85.17, Silver- 78.49, Bronze- 75.84
Big Air (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 176.85, Silver- 170.16, Bronze- 163.50 | Men; Gold- 187.26, Silver- 182.92, Bronze- 179.94
Aerials (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 104.63, Silver- 97.94, Bronze- 89.10 | Men; Gold- 128.58, Silver- 116.56, Bronze- 110.35
Halfpipe (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold-, Silver- , Bronze- | Men; Gold-, Silver- ,Bronze-
Moguls: The GOAT himself, Mikael Kingsbury, in the debut of dual moguls will look to complete the Olympic double. He hasn’t competed much this season due to a groin injury/preparing for the Olympics in the last few weeks but he’s so good that it would be disappointing if he didn't win both golds or at least a gold and a silver?, but I have PTSD of the moguls final from Beijing so I think he'll win one gold, one silver instead, leaning towards duals for the Olympic title. Past two seasons (really only last season), 11 wins and 17 podiums overall in Moguls, taking out one crash in Deer Valley 2025 and a 13th in Val St Come in 2024), insanity. Julien Viel is also putting forward a strong season in both disciplines, besides his 28th at the season opener in Ruka, he's won two WC medals a bronze in Ruka in moguls and his first career WC win at home in Val St Come in dual moguls along with a 4th in moguls in Waterville, predicting he’ll win bronze in dual moguls. Schwinghammer isn't in the same form she was last season (even though she's still doing well) unfortunately, so I don't see a podium for her.
As far as averages go, Kingsbury has averaged a score of 84.38 in moguls throughout the past two seasons in WCs/WCHs (taking out one crash? and a 13th in Val St Come in 2024), it'll be a tight battle between him and Horishima in both events probably, but definitely in Horishima's stronger event moguls. Horishima won the moguls title last year at Worlds in Bakuriani, and the moguls title at the WC last season in Livigno where the Olympics were held, so he has an advantage in that sense. For Viel, he's averaged 78.89 in moguls, still has the potential for a podium but don't think it'll happen.
Slopestyle/Big Air: The women's events were some of the events I was most excited for before Asselin withdrew from the Olympics with an injury (she competed at the X Games a few days ago, but her heel has two fractures in it from Snowmass, she thought it was just a bruised heel but the pain didn't go away), but we still have 2-3 athletes who could all make it onto the podium. Gaskell is probably a stretch. I think we'll win 1-2 medals, I'll be optimistic and say 2. Naomi Urness with a bronze in big air, and Megan Oldham finally winning an Olympic medal with a silver in slopestyle. Urness is one of our breakout stars of the season, she started off with a 13th in slopestyle in Stubai, but since then has podiumed in all three big air World Cups since then, with a silver in Secret Garden, a bronze in Beijing, and her first. She won slopestyle silver at the X Games, but she has a bigger chance in big air she has more experience with podiums in that event. There's been a few big names not competing at each of the WC stops (same with big air), so it's hard to tell whether Naomi can keep that up, especially with the added pressure of her being a youngster coming into her first Olympics, but she's been rapidly improving and is an absolute beast. For Oldham, she's already a star having won three medals at the last two World Championships, and coming oh so close to a big air podium at Beijing 2022, she still has a lot of unfinished business with the Olympics. She's only competed in slopestyle this season but has finished 4th and 2nd in her two WC events with best run scores of 68.04 in Stubai and 73.02 in Snowmass, she also finished 4th in slopestyle at the X Games (more on that below), won silver in big air with a 90.66 and had a second best score of 84.66, which if she can put that down at the Olympics that would probably be enough to podium if not win gold, and bronze in slopestyle at the 2025 Bakuriani World Champs with a score of 70.63. Watching Oldham at the X Games in slopestyle, she had a mediocre performance and made a mistake in each of her three runs even with the 75.00 (rail in her first, forgot the second too lazy to find the timestamp, and last jump in her third), but rebounded for the big air and I trust that she'll be able to clean it up. In the men's event, Dylan Deschamps won a bronze at the X Games in big air with a combined run score of 181.66 (even though only one run counted there), has two podiums in three big air events this season (including WCs, he has a silver and a 7th), won two bronzes at the beginning of last season in Chur and Beijing, and I'm predicting he'll win an Olympic silver in big air, in a stacked field. Evan McEachran could be in the mix in slopestyle, but unlikely for him to bring home a podium, he'd have to have the rides of his life, he hasn't been consistent enough with either podiums or high scores (he finished 9th in slopestyle at the X Games) and the field is too deep for a mid 80 to podium (he was in the 82s when he won bronze in Laax)
As far as averages go, Urness has averaged 164.50 in big air throughout the season (taking out X Games, she was only clean on one run), and Oldham 173.69 in her last two seasons, although she only competed once this season. Would put them both right in the medal mix. In slopestyle, Urness has only recently started to find her rails with her medal at the X Games, with a score of 85.00. Don't think it's fair to average her slopestyle results for her, she has barely any data, and with the data she has saying she'll be in the mid 50s or so seems wrong. For Oldham, she has an average of 74.28 in slopestyle (72.02 this season), taking out a few outliers 9th in Stubai and an 11th in Stoneham from last season. Their medals seem swapped around, but the Olympics can do somewhat unexpected things. For Deschamps, he's averaging 176.73 in big air (177.13 this season), taking out a 9th in Aspen where he was in the low 100s, a 46th in Klagenfurt (didn't land a run), a 14th in Copper Mountain (only one clean run) a 20th in Stubai, and a 1st in Chur, but most were last season and only two runs and best run counts. You'd have to be either crazy or unknowledgeable in this sport to say he's not in the mix for a podium.
Aerials: Marion Thenault is the biggest name to keep an eye on. In four major Championships, while she has yet to win an individual medal, she has finished 7th or better in all of them. She's won two silvers (Ruka and Lac-Beaport) and has had a 4th (Lac-Beauport) this season, and was 5th at Worlds last year with a 90.15, her highest score of the season 82.48 won't hold up for a podium though, and she really struggled at Lake Placid with a 18th and 11th. She always goes for the high difficulty jumps though, if she can clean that up she'll have a much better chance. From her IG stories, looks like training camp is going well. For the men, Miha Fontaine is the best bet for a podium with 3 top 8's in his last four WC stops (a bronze and an 85.45 18th in Lake Placid and a 4th and 8th on his home slope in Lac-Beauport) but it might be a stretch. We won a mixed team bronze in Beijing 2022, I don't imagine we'll repeat that medal, because that's my gut feeling. China and US will probably podium, it'll probably be between us, Ukraine, and Switzerland/Australia for bronze. Switzerland and Australia have glaring weak spots in their female/male representatives, and we have strong aerialists all around, we're probably favourites over them and it's a tossup between us and Ukraine. Of note, in the one WC event this was in, Canada finished 8th but Montminy was competing instead of Thenault. Hoping we win at least one medal here. Funny thing about aerials, whenever I look at the scores most of the athletes never seem to able to land a clean run, and you have people in the 110s/high 80s on the podium and the rest in the 80s/60s (maybe it's only the women and I'm generalizing), it's hilarious. Goes to show how hard it is to land the jumps.
As far as averages go, Thenault has an average of 77.58 the past two seasons (76.22 this season, without her Lake Placid 59) if you take out one of the Lake Placid results from this season and Deer Valley/Livigno, which is where the Olympics will be held, from last season, she's having a strong season regardless but she's really benefited from when other aerialists aren't jumping at their best with her high difficulty jumps. She hasn't been in the 90s since last year's World Championships. For Fontaine, discarding his performance in Secret Garden this season and Deer Valley/one of the Lac-Beauport/Lake Placid stops last season, he has an average of 101.44 (99.58 this season) the past two seasons, his first and only time reaching the 110s was in Beidahu last season, this season his best score is a 107.73. Plausible podium.
Ski Cross: Very real chance that for the first time in history we won't win a women's medal, almost unheard of a few seasons ago 
Reece Howden leads the Canadian contingent into the Olympics, having won the 2024-25 Crystal Globe (9 podiums, 7 golds, 1 silver, 1 bronze), currently leading the 2025-26 Crystal Globe standings with 4 golds, 1 silver, 1 bronze, and having won six medals in his last seven races. Out of all the time's he's made the big final, he's only not won gold 5 of those times. That's an 11-5 record of winning golds in big finals, and 14-1 if you include medals. He's probably the favourite in men's ski cross, but went out early on day one of the recent Val Di Fassa WC going out in the 1/16ths in a three-person-heat (won bronze the day after) and struggled at last years World Championships in Bakuriani. He also didn't do well in Beijing, we'll see what happens. I still think he can win gold. Anything can happen in ski cross on the day, Kevin Drury who won his first gold since 2020 last December in Val Thorens also finished 4th behind Howden on day two of the Val Di Fassa WC, and Jared Schmidt who has had three top 8 finishes, almost made the podium this season with a 4th in Innichen, two top 4 finishes last season, and a 9th at the recent Worlds could also medal on the day. Will also point out last Worlds and Olympics there was no Canadian men in the semifinals, bit worrying. Our hopes of a women's ski cross medal rest on Marielle Thompson mainly (who saved us from disaster in Beijing) and an off chance with Hannah Schmidt, with the injuries of Sherret and Hoffos, and Phelan in terrible form. It's been a tough road to recovery for Thompson ever since that knee injury she sustained at the WC in Gudauri, however recently it looks like she's starting to get back on track with back-to-back bronzes in Veysonnaz and Val Di Fassa, she only managed a 13th the next day but man that's promising. Schmidt's first races after Bakuriani, where she suffered heel and ankle fractures, she struggled to find the form that saw her win three medals and consistently make small finals last season, but she has a couple small finals under her belt, and her best result of the season was last week in Veysonnaz a 5th (will mention she struggled in Val Di Fassa). Realistically Brittany Phelan will be aiming for the small final this time around, although I will point out she's historically performed well in Italy, even this season. So who knows, maybe she can pull a Ruka Kingsbury (nowhere near the same level of dominance but...) and win a medal 
(probably not)
Halfpipe: There's potential for a medal, and potential for us to go home without a medal. Cassie Sharpe won bronze at the X Games with an 87, solid score. Rachael Karker and Brendan MacKay are a bit of an unknown because even though they competed at the X Games, I believe they've both been injured for a good part of this season? I know Karker mentioned hers. Amy Fraser and Andrew Longino are outside shots,
As far as averages go, Sharpe has been ripping - scored runs throughout the last two seasons (-), taking out - from - season. Karker and MacKay are averaging - and - but again they've been injured so it's hard to tell the form they're in. Just for fun Fraser and Longino are averaging -.
Prediction: Gold and silver for Kingsbury in dual moguls and moguls, bronze for Viel in dual moguls, silver for Oldham in slopestyle, bronze for Urness in big air, silver for Deschamps in big air, gold for Howden in ski cross, surprise bronze for Karker in halfpipe (I think one of the couple will win a medal, both are on the right trajectory with their X Games performances. I hope it's the other way around and MacKay can finally get his podium though)
Ice Hockey
Women are at least winning a silver, barring disaster. Rivalry series sweep for US and the lopsided wins doesn't have me feeling confident which is why I'm predicting a silver, although they did win the last World Championships which naturally should mean it's our turn? Men have a lot of NHL talent, and have the strongest roster by far, although goaltending is a bit of a weak spot and an upset is possible. Miss the days where we had Price, Luongo, and Fleury backing up the net. Still think we can do it.
Prediction: 1 gold, 1 silver
Luge
(Even Crosby is laughing at us )
Short Track Speed Skating
We've been utter dominant the past two seasons, 21 WC golds last season and 15 this season, with 37 and 31 medals respectively. We also won 6 golds, and 4 bronzes at the last World Championships. But, I don't expect us to do that well at the Olympics, because well... corruption and short track is just about the most unpredictable sport ever, lot's of chaos and falls. Nonetheless, unsurprisingly based off our medals won, our team is stacked. William Dandjinou and Courtney Sarault are the biggest headliners, Dandjinou became the first to win five golds in a single stop and has won 7/12 of the men's individual distances and a silver this season, Sarault has won 5/12 of the women's individual distances and 3 silvers and a bronze this season. Steven Dubois is the reigning World Champion in the 500m and 1000m, he also won medals in those a few years ago at the Worlds in Seoul Worlds, and 500m silver and 1500m bronze at the last Olympics in Beijing. Kim Boutin, always a contender in her specialty event the 500m, and the 1000m. Félix Roussel (mainly in the 1000m/1500m, he'll probably only do the 500m if JPG isn't at his best), Florence Brunelle (1000m/1500m, because Doak will probably take her place in the 500m) are other chances, along with Jordan Pierre-Gilles in the 500m if he can return to form following his knee injury that he suffered last summer, and Rikki Doak who won 500m silver at the last World Championships, although probably a stretch. Men's and women's relays are confusing though because while they're still contenders, and the men should be favourites they did awful the last two World Cup stops? Only the mixed relay has done well.
Prediction: 4 golds, 2 silver, 3 bronzes. Sweep of the men's individual events, and Sarault in the women's 1000m (you would think the 1500m is her biggest chance, but she's undefeated in the event this season) in terms of golds. Boutin bronze in the 500m, men's relay silver, one bronze/one silver out of Dandjinou/Dubois (whoever doesn't win gold) in the 500m/1000m, and mixed relay bronze. Do I actually think this will happen? Absolutely fucking not. Way too unpredictable to sweep the men's events, only one women's gold doesn't sound right, and 9 medals???
Skeleton
Hallie Clarke's season has been almost a copy and paste of Lotholz's, besides her broken nose/tweaked hamstring in Sigulda which led to her underperforming there, and slowly getting back to her level with a 17th in her return in Winterberg, a 7th in St Moritz, and a 13th at the most recent WC in Altenberg. The difference is she has a proven track record when it comes to performing in big events, she won Worlds in 2024, Junior Worlds in 2025 and was 7th in the women's event. Obviously with this being the Olympics the stakes are 5x higher, but she's shown she has what it takes.
Prediction: Surprise bronze for Clarke in women's skeleton
Ski Jumping
Our biggest medal contender in any sport the mixed team... (well we did won bronze in 2022... but just kidding, we didn't even qualify)
After Loutitt's injury there was always that "what if" in my head. There still is, but Abigail Strate has made me mostly forget about that. She's been on a roll this season and especially lately, with three podiums in a row recently in Sapporo (although she historically does well there), two further silvers in Wisla and Lillehammer in December, a first career WC victory in Obertsdorf (all large hill besides a silver in Sapporo) this year, finished top 10 in 19/20 WC events this season (her worst was a 15th in Falun), and top 5 in 11/20. Strate has a really good chance at winning Canada's first individual medal in ski jumping, she’s slightly better at long hill but not by much she’ll also be a contender in normal hill.
Prediction: Silver for Abigail Strate in large hill
Snowboarding
Projected Scores for Olympic Podium:
Slopestyle (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold-, Silver- , Bronze- | Men; Gold-, Silver- , Bronze-
Big Air (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold-, Silver- , Bronze- | Men; Gold- 179.92, Silver- 173.75, Bronze- 168.68
Halfpipe - Women; Gold-, Silver-, Bronze-
Slopestyle/Big Air: Feels fitting to start things off with the legend himself 
Mark McMorris who has won bronze medals at the last three Olympics in slopestyle, and has a perfect record of winning medals every time he's at the Olympics. I always forget he's been competing the past two seasons, because he's been invisible for the most part on the WC/World Champs stage yet somehow he always manages to find another gear during the X Games, he won gold in slopestyle at Aspen 2026 a week. That and taking into consideration his previous Olympic performances he’s certainly trending in the right direction towards another podium. Cameron Spalding, and youngster Eli Bouchard and Francis Jobin. Will say though, what a shame Brearley got injured, he was probably our biggest hope for a medal as the reigning World Champion in slopestyle. On the women's side, Laurie Blouin is a contender for the podium in both slopestyle/big air but with her bag of tricks can't match Brookes or Sadowski-Synnott when clean. Two of her, Murase, Fukada, Coady, Gasser, Suzuki and Onitsuka should medal in slopestyle or big air, but the competition is tough.
As for averages, putting any for McMorris seems wrong given how bad he's been. For Spalding in -
Halfpipe: Elizabeth Hosking is our only contender, but unlikely and like with Blouin, it'll require a clean run and mistakes from others with Choi, Shimizu, Ono, and Kim if healthy starting as the favourites. Choi and Shimizu have been too consistent to miss the podium (anything can happen though, especially with the added pressure of an Olympics), and Castellet, her, Tomita, Mastro, Xuetong will probably fight for the other spot. She'll likely be in the low-mid 80s and hoping for a top 5, but just for fun her average score the past two seasons is a - (and - on the season), discarding a - in -.
Snowboard Cross: Eliot Grondin will start as the favourite in men's snowboard cross, as the current World Champion. Lambert is in career best form and leads the WC standings, with podiums in all three of his races so far, and the French contingent (Surget, Bozzolo, Tomas, and one of the Chollet's? Don't know who they're sending), Ulbricht, Noerl, Hammerle, Sommariva and Dusek will probably be his biggest threats. He's not bad at passing, but the key for him in the semifinal/big final if he can make it is getting off to a strong start and holding the lead into the first few turns (like Howden, but Howden is better at passing and has a slightly stronger start).
Parallel Giant Slalom: Righty, I'll try to make this quick because of how long this is, but Aurelie Moisan has been recording top 13 finishes left and right this season (9 in 11 this season), with her only disappointing finishes being in Rogla a few days ago and Bad Gastien. Somehow she's yet to win a WC medal? Only a matter of time though if she keeps this up. Arnaud Gaudet is less likely, but still possible. He won his first career WC podium with a silver in Bankso a few weeks ago, outside of that he's mostly finished in the 10th-25th range.
Prediction: Gold for Eliot Grondin in ski cross, Silver for Mark McMorris in slopestyle (I just want him to win a non-bronze Olympic medal)
Speed Skating
Even though Blondin, Weidemann, and Maltais have been in solid form lately, Netherlands' 2x World Championships pursuit team of Beune, Groenewoud, de Jong, are out of reach this time around, they've been way too dominant to get beaten barring Netherlands pulling a Beijing 2022 Japan (but if they're far ahead as usual near the end of the race they might play it safe to avoid that)
Total: 6 G, 4 S, 6 B