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Swimming Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games


vinipereira
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Continuing from my last post:

 

Women's 50m Freestyle

 

:SWE Sarah Sjoestroem

:AUS Cate Campbell

:USA Simone Manuel

:DEN Pernille Blume

:AUS Bronte Campbell

:SWE Michelle Coleman

:RUS Mariia Kameneva

:GBR Anna Hopkin

:NED Ranomi Kromowidjojo

:CHN Liu Xiang

:USA Abbey Weitzeil

:NED Femke Heemskerk

:FRA Charlotte Bonnet

:CHN Wu Qingfeng

 

Women's 100m Freestyle

 

:USA Simone Manuel

:AUS Cate Campbell

:SWE Sarah Sjoestroem

:AUS Emma McKeon

:USA Mallory Comerford

:CAN Taylor Ruck

:SWE Michelle Coleman

:NED Femke Heemskerk

:GBR Anna Hopkin

:FRA Charlotte Bonnet

:GBR Freye Anderson

:HKG Siobhan Haughey

:NED Ranomi Kromowidjojo

:ITA Federica Pellegrini

:DEN Pernille Blume

:RUS Mariia Kameneva

:CAN Penny Oleksiak

:CHN Yang Junxuan

:FRA Beryl Gastaldello

:DEN Signe Bro

:CHN Zhu Menghui

:JPN Rika Omoto

:CZE Barbora Seemanova

:ESP Lidon Munoz del Campo

 

Women's 200m Freestyle

 

:ITA Federica Pellegrini

:AUS Ariarne Titmus

:AUS Emma McKeon

:SWE Sarah Sjoestroem

:HKG Siobhan Haughey

:CHN Yang Junxuan

:USA Katie Ledecky

:USA Simone Manuel

:FRA Charlotte Bonnet

:NED Femke Heemskerk

:CAN Penny Oleksiak

:JPN Rio Shirai

:CAN Taylor Ruck

:RUS Veronika Andrusenko

:CZE Barbora Seemanova

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:RUS Valeriia Salamatina

 

Women's 400m Freestyle

 

:AUS Ariarne Titmus

:USA Katie Ledecky

:USA Leah Smith

:HUN Ajna Kesely

:CHN Wang Jianjiahe

:CHN Li Bingjie

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:AUS Kiah Melverton

:ITA Simona Quadarella

:RUS Veronika Andrusenko

:RUS Anna Egorova

:GER Sarah Kohler

:ARG Delfina Pignatiello

:ESP Mireia Belmonte

:GBR Holly Hibbott

:GER Leonie Beck

 

Women's 800m Freestyle

 

:USA Katie Ledecky

:CHN Wang Jianjiahe

:ITA Simona Quadarella

:AUS Ariarne Titmus

:USA Leah Smith

:GER Sarah Kohler

:AUS Kiah Melverton

:HUN Ajna Kesely

:ESP Mireia Belmonte

:ARG Delfina Pignatiello

:GER Leonie Beck

:CHN Hou Yawen

:JPN Miyu Namba

:ITA Martina Caramignoli

:RUS Anna Egorova

:SLO Tjasa Oder

:LIE Julia Hassler

:ESP Jimena Perez Blanco

:JPN Yukimi Moriyama

:TUR Beril Bocekler

 

Women's 1500m Freestyle

 

:USA Katie Ledecky

:ITA Simona Quadarella

:GER Sarah Kohler

:CHN Wang Jianjiahe

:ARG Delfina Pignatiello

:USA Ashley Twichell

:HUN Ajna Kesely

:AUS Maddy Gough

:AUS Kiah Melverton

:ESP Mireia Belmonte

:ITA Martina Caramignoli

:HUN Boglarka Kapas

:SLO Tjasa Oder

:JPN Waka Kobori

:CHN Zhang Ke

:JPN Yukimi Moriyama

:GER Lea Boy

:ESP Jimena Perez Blanco

:RUS Anastasiia Kirpichnikova

:CHI Kristel Kobrich

:FRA Lara Grangeon

:LIE Julia Hassler

:POR Tamila Holub

:TUR Beril Bocekler

:CAN Mackenzie Padington

:BRA Viviane Jungblut

:CAN Emma O'Croinin

:POR Diana Duraes

:AUT Marlene Kahler

 

Women's 100m Backstroke

 

:USA Regan Smith

:CAN Kylie Masse

:CAN Taylor Ruck

:AUS Minna Atherton

:USA Phoebe Bacon

:ITA Margherita Panziera

:AUS Kaylee McKeown

:NED Kira Toussaint

:RUS Mariia Kameneva

:RUS Daria Vaskina

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:JPN Natsumi Sakai

:GBR Georgia Davies

:CHN Fu Yuanhui

:CZE Simona Kubova

:GER Laura Riedemann

:CHN Chen Jie

:GBR Kathleen Dawson

:FRA Beryl Gastaldello

:ITA Federica Pellegrini

:HKG Hoi Shun Stephanie Au

 

Women's 200m Backstroke

 

:USA Regan Smith

:ITA Margherita Panziera

:CAN Kylie Masse

:AUS Kaylee McKeown

:CAN Taylor Ruck

:AUS Minna Atherton

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:USA Lisa Bratton

:CHN Liu Yaxin

:HUN Katalin Burian

:JPN Rio Shirai

:GBR Chloe Golding

:ESP Africa Zamorano Sanz

:CHN Peng Xuwei

:GBR Jessica Fullalove

:RUS Anastasiia Avdeeva

:NZL Ali Galyer

:RUS Daria Ustinova

:AUT Lena Grabowski

:JPN Natsumi Sakai

:MDA Tatiana Salcutan

 

Women's 100m Breaststroke

 

:USA Lilly King

:RUS Yuliya Efimova

:USA Annie Lazor

:JPN Reona Aoki

:RSA Tatjana Schoenmaker

:RUS Anna Belousova

:ITA Martina Carraro

:ITA Arianna Castiglioni

:CAN Kierra Smith

:CHN Yu Jingyao

:ESP Jessica Vall Montero

:GBR Molly Renshaw

:JPN Miho Teramura

:NED Tes Schouten

:BEL Fanny LeCluyse

:ARG Julia Sebastian

:AUS Jessica Hansen

:AUS Abbey Harkin

:GBR Kayla van der Merwe

:JAM Alia Atkinson

 

Women's 200m Breaststroke

 

:RUS Yuliya Efimova

:USA Annie Lazor

:USA Lilly King

:RSA Tatjana Schoenmaker

:CHN Ye Shiwen

:CAN Sydney Pickrem

:RUS Evgeniia Chikunova

:CAN Kelsey Wog

:GBR Molly Renshaw

:JPN Kanako Watanabe

:BEL Fanny LeCluyse

:ESP Marina Garcia Urzainqui

:RSA Kaylene Corbett

:ITA Francesca Fangio

:JPN Reona Aoki

:SUI Lisa Mamie

:ESP Jessica Vall Montero

:CHN Yu Jingyao

:AUS Jenna Strauch

:AUS Taylor McKeown

:GBR Kayla van der Merwe

:ARG Julia Sebastian

:HUN Eszter Bekesi

 

Women's 100m Butterfly

 

:CAN Maggie MacNeil

:SWE Sarah Sjoestroem

:AUS Emma McKeon

:FRA Marie Wattel

:AUS Brianna Throssell

:ITA Elena di Liddo

:USA Kelsi Dahlia

:SWE Louise Hansson

:USA Katie McLaughlin

:CHN Zhang Yufei

:ITA Ilaria Bianchi

:CAN Rebecca Smith

:RUS Svetlana Chimrova

:FRA Beryl Gastaldello

:RUS Arina Surkova

:BLR Anastasiya Shkurdai

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:JPN Yui Ohashi

:GER Angelina Kohler

:GRE Anna Ntountounaki

 

Women's 200m Butterfly

 

:USA Hali Flickinger

:USA Katie Drabot

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:HUN Boglarka Kapas

:JPN Suzuka Hasegawa

:GER Franziska Hentke

:JPN Hiroko Makino

:AUS Brianna Throssell

:CHN Zhang Yufei

:GBR Alys Thomas

:GBR Laura Stephens

:CHN Zhu Jiaming

:RUS Svetlana Chimrova

:POR Anna Monteiro

:AUS Laura Taylor

 

Women's 200m Individual Medley

 

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:CHN Ye Shiwen

:CAN Sydney Pickrem

:JPN Yui Ohashi

:USA Melanie Margalis

:USA Alex Walsh

:JPN Rika Omoto

:AUS Kaylee McKeown

:KOR Kim Seoyeong

:GBR Siobhan O'Connor

:CAN Kelsey Wog

:SUI Maria Ugolkova

:GBR Alicia Wilson

:AUS Calypso Sheridan

:CHN Yu Yiting

:FRA Fantine Lesaffre

:ITA Ilario Cusinato

:ISR Anastasia Gorbenko

:TUR Viktoria Gunes

 

Women's 400m Individual Medley

 

:HUN Katinka Hosszu

:CHN Ye Shiwen

:JPN Yui Ohashi

:ESP Mireia Belmonte

:CAN Sydney Pickrem

:USA Emma Weyant

:USA Brooke Forde

:GBR Aimee Willmott

:FRA Fantine Lesaffre

:CAN Emily Overholt

:ITA Ilario Cusinato

:SRB Anja Crevar

:ESP Alba Vazquez

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21 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations.

Overall i would consider most of the predictions pretty good, but i am not sure about the following predictions for overall medals:

- 3.45 medals for Sweden: Unless i am forgetting something, their absolute best case would be 4 medals for Sjöstrom (50 free, 100 free, 200 free, 100 fly). She is pretty much a lock in the 100 fly, but it isn't even certain that she will compete in the 200 free and in the 50 free and especially the 100 free she isn't a lock for a medal. I would consider 2.5 medals a more realistic prediction.

- 1.90 medals for France: Right now i would say 1 medal in total seems to be the most realistic prediction for them, probably for Manaudou in the 50 free (although he will have to beat at least two out of Fratus, Dressel, Morozov and Proud). They have other medal contenders (men's open water, men's 800 free), but i don't think that those 3 (the two mentioned before + Manaudou) combined are likely to win 2 (1.90 to be precise) medals.

- 0.74 medals for South Africa: I think you are underrating their medal chances. Le Clos (100 fly + 200 fly) and Schoenmaker (200 breast) should combine for an expected medal count of around 1.50 in my opinion.

- 0.69 medals for Lithuania: I think right now Rapsys has to be considered the favorite for gold in the 200 free and i don't see 3 other guys who are more likely to medal in the 400 free right now. I would have them at 1.25 medals or something like that.

- 5.25 medals for Hungary: 5 medals realistically seems to be the best case for them in my opinion (2 x men's 200 fly, women's 200 IM, women's 400 IM, women's 200 fly). Kesely (400 free), Hosszu (200 back) and Milak (100 fly) have outside chances for more medals, but on the other hand 2 medals in men's 200 fly and a medal in women's 200 fly are far from certain. I would say their expected number of medals is closer to 4.50.

- 6.32 medals for Canada: 7.50 seems more realistic in my opinion. 3 medals in the relays on the women's side are almost a lock (at least the 2 medals in the 400 free relay and the medley relay), the same is true for a medal in women's 100 fly and then you also have (very) good medal chances in women's 100 free, women's 200 free, women's 200 breast, women's 100 back, women's 200 back, women's 200 IM and women's 400 IM.

- 7.91 medals for Italy: I really don't see how Italy should win 8 medals? Men's 400 free, men's 800 free, men's 1500 free, women's 200 free, women's 800 free, women's 1500 free, women's 200 back. Those medals aren't all a lock (especially men's 400 free, women's 200 free, women's 200 back), but of course on the other hand they have (outside) chances in other events like women's open water and men's 100 breast. Overall i would consider something like 6.50 or 7.00 a more realistic value.

 

In the end it is still a long time until the olympics and i am sure a lot of things will change until then, so probably it is still too early for predictions like that to be taken too seriously, although of course it will be interesting to compare the actual medal table to your predictions. When/how often (if at all) will you update your predictions?

Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
 

 

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37 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Overall i would consider most of the predictions pretty good, but i am not sure about the following predictions for overall medals:

 

Right now the assumption is the top two athletes of each nation will compete in all events they are eligible for. For athletes like Sjostrom or Hosszu the events they are listed may not match the events they will compete in. Once we know for sure I'll remove them from those events. For Sweden they also have chances at winning medals in the 4x100m free and medley relays which slightly boosts their chances. Overall, the over/underperformance is pretty much due to how well a nation performed in 2019, it doesn't take into account injuries.

 

43 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

In the end it is still a long time until the olympics and i am sure a lot of things will change until then, so probably it is still too early for predictions like that to be taken too seriously, although of course it will be interesting to compare the actual medal table to your predictions. When/how often (if at all) will you update your predictions?

 

The main focus is to get all the sports up, but there will be at least one more update closer to the games.

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  • 1 month later...

Last month, SwimSwam put together a list of Olympic trials that will be held. Note that this may not be the only way an athlete from those nations can qualify, some selection policies allow for athletes which performed well at certain other meets (like the World Championships) to be selected, but the conclusion of these events should give us most of the swimming team. Here is the calendar of events (yes Netherlands has two events).

 

:UKR Ukraine - 10-13 March

:ITA Italy - 17-21 March

:LTU Lithuania - 19-21 March

:HUN Hungary - 24-28 March

:DEN Denmark - 28 March - 1 April

:NZL New Zealand - 31 March - 4 April

:CHN China - 28 March - 5 April

:CAN Canada - 30 March - 5 April

:IRL Ireland - 1-5 April

:SUI Switzerland - 2-5 April

:NED Netherlands - 3-5 April

:JPN Japan - 1-8 April

:ESP Spain - 4-8 April

:RUS Russia - 3-9 April

:RSA South Africa - 4-9 April

:NED Netherlands - 9-12 April

:HKG Hong Kong - 11-12 April

:FRA France - 14-19 April

:GBR Great Britain - 14-19 April

:BRA Brazil - 20-25 April

:GER Germany - 30 April - May 3

:BEL Belgium - 21-23 May

:POL Poland - 20-24 May

:BLR Belarus - 22-24 May

:GRE Greece - 28-31 May

:AUS Australia - 14-19 June

:SGP Singapore - 24-27 June

:USA United States - 21-28 June

:SWE Sweden - 26-30 June

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29 minutes ago, dcro said:

It's rather pretentious to call it "Olympic trials" for some of these nations. :p

 

Yeah places like Ireland and Singapore had three athletes in 2016.

 

A quick look at the 2016 Olympics, the largest teams not to have trials are the Czech Republic, Finland, Israel and South Korea.

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No swimming competition is scheduled in the Polish Swimming Association's calendar for 2020 in those days - there is one of the events from Polish Grand Prix cycle on 25-26, but it has to do with the Olympics as the others - you can get the minimum also there. But knowing how our federation is, it means nothing - they could have simply not update the calendar or the rules or anything else.

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23 minutes ago, Vojthas said:

No swimming competition is scheduled in the Polish Swimming Association's calendar for 2020 in those days - there is one of the events from Polish Grand Prix cycle on 25-26, but it has to do with the Olympics as the others - you can get the minimum also there. But knowing how our federation is, it means nothing - they could have simply not update the calendar or the rules or anything else.

 

FINA has the Polish Championship to be held in Lodz scheduled for those days.

 

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the Italian Spring Nationals are definitely not true Trials...

 

it's the main chance for swimmers to get the required clockings, but not the only one...

 

we already have some qualified athletes from last December's Winter Champs, then many other will have a chance to swim the Olympic qualifying time at the European Champs (this championship is actually a true selection for that event, rather than the Olympics) and even further down the calendar, at the Settecolli meet in June...

 

and still our coaches have the last word...there's nothing "mathematical" in our selections (except for those athletes swimming the NF's "A" standard time, who are sure to fly to Tokyo in any case)...

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