dcro 10,172 Posted July 27, 2018 #21 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Archery: 0-1, slight chance in men's individual, but the sport is very unpredictable Artistic Swimming: 0, had a good team before Rio and yet the federation didn't even bother to send them to the qualification event... Athletics: 7-13, quite difficult to predict with the new system. but I guess somewhere in that area Badminton: 0-1, outside chance for Đurkinjak in singles Baseball: 0 Basketball: 0-16, chance in both men's indoor and 3x3 Beach Volleyball: 0 Boxing: 1-3, only men Canoeing - Slalom: 0-1, hopefully finally some luck for Marinić Canoeing - Sprint: 0-1, hopefully a comeback with Novaković Cycling - BMX: 0-1, Rantes definitely has a good chance, but very few quotas could be a problem Cycling - Mountain Bike: 0 Cycling - Road: 1 Cycling - Track: 0 Diving: 0-2, chances in men's and women's springboard Equestrian: 0-1, a chance in a very optimistic scenario. Paris Games should be a better chance for Karen Pavicic though Fencing: 0-1, system is very hard for the individual fencers, even if we have a talented junior. Field Hockey: 0 Football: 0-18, it will be hard, but maybe men's team will get inspired by senior performance in Russia Golf: 0 Gymnastics - Artistic: 2-4, with a new system a chance to have a couple of apparatus specialists. Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0 Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0 Handball: 14-28, men's team should be in, women's in a very lucky scenario. Judo: 1-4 Karate: 0-2, one would be great with thin quotas. Modern Pentathlon: 0 Rowing: 3-7, two experienced crews are in, a couple of outsiders could be looking in, especially among women. Rugby Sevens: 0 Sailing: 6-11, Laser, Laser Radial, Finn, 49er, women's RS:X should be safe, good chance in 49er FX and men's RS:X, outside chance in 470 Shooting: 3-7, hopefully with participants in all three disciplines - shotgun, rifle, pistol Skateboarding: 0 Softball: 0 Sport Climbing: 0-1, in a very optimistic outcome there may be one Surfing: 0 Swimming: 2-4 Table Tennis: 1-4, a chance for men's team Taekwondo: 2-4 Tennis: around 5-7 Triathlon: 0 Volleyball: 0 Water Polo: 11, men's team Weightlifting: 1, I'm quite confident one will come up through reallocations, bans, doping reductions, reduced max quotas etc... Wrestling: 1-3 Total Sports: 15-27 Optimistic Total Athletes: 158 Realistic Total Athletes: 84 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 61 #banbestmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intoronto 4,072 Posted July 27, 2018 #22 Share Posted July 27, 2018 CANADA Archery: 1-4. One male will qualify most likely, a men's team Artistic Swimming: 8. Canada is by far the strongest team in the continent and should easily qualify. Athletics: 46-54. This sport is hard to predict and who knows who will rise to the occasion.I estimate around 50 total. Badminton: 4. Michelle Li and a men's singles quota + a doubles team through a continental spot. Baseball: 0-24. Only 6 teams, they should have put 8 and reduced spots from fringe sports like canoe slalom (kidding). As much as Canada has a history of performing well without full strength baseball teams, I don't think it will happen for Canada, however the two time defending Pan American Games gold medallist should have a chance. Basketball: 24-28, anything less then qualifying in both 5 a side tournament will be a major disappointment. The men's 3x3 team has an outside shot of also qualifying. Beach Volleyball: 6-8. Two women's teams should qualify along with a men's team through the rankings. Another men's team should qualify through the continental tour. Boxing: 2. This will be a hard sport for Canada to qualify in. I predict one man and one woman. Canoeing - Slalom: 2. C1 men, K1 men. Canoeing - Sprint: 9-10. Men: 3-4 quotas. Women 6 quotas (full team) Cycling - BMX: 1-2 (Troy Nhaug), possible quota in freestyle Cycling - Mountain Bike: 3. 1 man, 2 women. Not sure what is going on with this discipline in Canada. Results have trended downward Cycling - Road: 5. 2 men and 3 women. Cycling - Track: 10. Both team pursuits, one in each gender per sprint event. Diving: 9-10. 3-4 men (all individual men on borderline of qualifying), 6 women (included is both synchronized events) Equestrian: 9, full team. Anything less would be a major disappointment. Fencing: 8-10. I expect the women's foil + another team event to qualify (through rankings). If not then one individual per event + women's foil team. Field Hockey: 0. This sport has the best qualification system by far for team events, which makes it hard for Canada to qualify. However, the men just need to beat Argentina and that is easier said than done. The women's team has drastically improved this year (and last) and maybe they can continue to do that and surprisingly qualify (I highly doubt this, but who knows). Football: 18 Women's team should qualify. Golf: 4. 2 men and 2 women. Gymnastics - Artistic: 6. Full women's team + 1 man Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0, no one of quality to qualify Gymnastics - Trampoline: 1 or 2 women. Handball: 0, not good enough as Argentina/Brazil to challenge. Judo: 8. Men's 73, 81, 90, 100 kg. Women: 52, 57, 63, 70 kg. Karate: 1, in individual kata either men or women. Modern Pentathlon: 2 women. Rowing: Approx. 26-30. Rugby Sevens: 12-24. Women should qualify and the men have a decent shot. Sailing: 11 Men: 5, Rsx, finn, laser, 470 Women: 4 RSx, Laser radial, 49erx Mixed:2 Shooting: Shooting is at a low level in Canada. Predicting at most 2 athletes. Skateboarding: 3. 2 men in street, 1 women in street. Softball: 15. Canada is one of the top 3 in the world, and should qualify. Sport Climbing: 1. 1 Man Surfing: 2. Not sure, but I predict one per gender. Swimming: 32. 10 men + 20 women in pool. 1+1 in open water Table Tennis: 2. Mo Zhang and Eugene Wang Taekwondo: 1 in any weight class/gender Tennis: 2-4. Shapovalov and Raonic should qualify. If Dabrowski gets into the top 8 (12th rn) in the doubles, then two women will qualify too. Triathlon: 5. 2 men, 3 women Volleyball: 12-24. Men should qualify, and the women should challenge for a spot, especially if the USA qualifies through the world qualifier. Water Polo: 12-24. With 10 teams, the women should qualify. The men have an outside shot. Weightlifting: This will be almost impossible to qualify in. I am predicting at a minimum 2: Boady Santavy and Maude Charron. Wrestling: 5. 4 women, and one man (125 kg). Wrestling has really collapsed in Canada it appears Total Sports: All sports minus field hockey + handball Optimistic Total Athletes: 405 Realistic Total Athletes: Around 316 Pessimistic Total Athletes: Anything below realistic total heywoodu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George_D 862 Posted July 28, 2018 #23 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Skateboarding, surfing and sports climbing.. Olympics is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaniSRB 896 Posted July 28, 2018 #24 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Archery: 0-1 We were close to qualify for Rio, that athlete did not compete much since then. Surprises in this sport are possible, so we never know. Atm is more 0 than 1. Artistic Swimming: 0-2. Duet is improving, but still needs a lot to improve...after EC we will know more. Athletics: Around 10. Badminton: Noone. Baseball: Noone. Basketball: Both teams have chances. Women were bad last year, but players that we have are in top 12 teams in the world imo. Men's 3x3 team has chance, women are improving, we are still searching for right crew. Beach Volleyball: Chance to make debut with men's couple is getting bigger. Boxing: 0-1 More like 0, maybe some surprise Canoeing - Slalom: Noone. Canoeing - Sprint: In canoe we have chance for women's 200m. In kayak for all women's disciplines. In sprint men's k-1 200m and k-2 1000m. Other discipines less but possible. Hard to tell about numbers as we don't know how many athletes will compete in more than 1 discipline. Cycling - BMX: Noone Cycling - Mountain Bike: Chance for 1 women. Cycling - Road: Hopefully 2, 1 in each. Small chances for more than that. Cycling - Track: Noone Diving: Noone Equestrian: Noone Fencing: Most likely noone. There are some talented juniors, but still is early and qualifications are too hard. Field Hockey: Noone Football: Men are on good way, but federation rarely cares when championship comes. Golf: Noone Gymnastics - Artistic: Small chances for men/women. Maybe they can make it. Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Probably noone, very very slim chances. Gymnastics - Trampoline: Noone Handball: I really hope for women. Men's chances are like 5-10% right now. Judo: Between 1-4 men, and 1 women, maybe 2 with some surprise. Karate: 1-2 at most probably Modern Pentathlon: Noone Rowing: Men's sigles sculls and pairs have better chance. Smaller chances for one more men's crew and women's pair or sculls. Rugby Sevens: Noone Sailing: None? Shooting: 4-5 men, 4 women and maybe small chance for men's trap Skateboarding: Noone Softball: Noone Sport Climbing: Hopefully 1 woman. Surfing: Noone Swimming: With relay we can qualify around 6 men and 1-2 women. Table Tennis: 0-1, very hard this time, maybe 1 women and still is question is Karakasevic will try again Taekwondo: Hm, 1-2 women Tennis: 2-4 men, 1-2 women Triathlon: 0-1, small chances for one man Volleyball: Women's team should qualify, men's team is not top 5, but is top 12 in the world Water Polo: Men's team Weightlifting: Hopefully 1 man Wrestling: 3-4 in GR, 1-2 in FR Total Sports: add your text/number here Optimistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here Realistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here Pessimistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCB 422 Posted July 29, 2018 #25 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Archery: 4 (men’s team, 1 woman) Artistic Swimming: 2 (women’s duet) Athletics: 30 Badminton: 2 (women’s doubles) Baseball: 24, men’s team should qualify Basketball: 0 Beach Volleyball: 6 (Brouwer/Varenhorst – Keizer/Meppelink, Van Iersel/Stubbe) Boxing: 1 woman (Fontijn) Canoeing - Slalom: 0 Canoeing - Sprint: 0 Cycling - BMX: 5 (3 men, 2 women) Cycling - Mountain Bike: 4 (2 men, 2 woman) Cycling - Road: 9 (5 men, 4 women) Cycling - Track: 11 (6 men, 5 women) Diving: 2 (Janssen and Wils) Equestrian: 12 (all three disciplines a team) Fencing: 1 (Verwijlen, epee) Field Hockey: 32 (both men and women) Football: 0-18, maybe the women’s team Golf: 1 Gymnastics - Artistic: 2-8 (not easy to understand the qualification process) Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0 Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0 Handball: 0-14 (maybe the women’s team can qualify, let’s hope) Judo: 10 (5 men and 5 women) Karate: 0 Modern Pentathlon: 0 Rowing: 36 (20 men, 16 women – M2x, M2-, M4x, M4-, M8+, LW2x, W2x, W2-, W4x, W8+) Rugby Sevens: 0 Sailing: 8 (2 men, 6 women – RSX m, Finn, RSX w, Laser Radial, 49er FX, 470 w) Shooting: 0 Skateboarding: 0 Softball: 15, women’s team should qualify Sport Climbing: 0 Surfing: 0 Swimming 8-12 swimmers (depends on relay qualification) Table Tennis: 0-1 (maybe one woman) Taekwondo: 0 Tennis: 4 (2 men, 2 women, hopefully we will play mixed doubles again) Triathlon: 1 woman (Klamer) Volleyball: 0 (women’s team has a small chance, but not likely) Water Polo: 11 (women’s team) Weightlifting: 0 Wrestling: 0 Total Sports: 25-27 Optimistic Total Athletes: 280 Realistic Total Athletes: Around 240 Pessimistic Total Athletes: don’t wanna think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EselTheDonkey 622 Posted July 29, 2018 #26 Share Posted July 29, 2018 (edited) vor 2 Stunden schrieb CCB: Equestrian: 12 (all three disciplines a team) Teams in Equestrian will only consist of three athletes in Tokyo. It's highly annoying, especially in Eventing. Edited July 29, 2018 by EselTheDonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 776 Posted July 29, 2018 #27 Share Posted July 29, 2018 vor 53 Minuten schrieb EselTheDonkey: Teams in Equestrian will only consist out of three athletes in Tokyo. It's highly annoying, especially in Eventing. Its a scandal, nothing else. Imagine if federations would only be allowed to nominate 4 athletes for relays in swimming or athletics. Anyone who says that this has been done to have less athletes at the game must be stupid, IOC did it to make for less predictable outcomes, which is an even bigger scandal. They probably got tired of the german dominance in eventing and dressage so they tried to find a way of ending it. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phelps 6,528 Posted July 29, 2018 #28 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Archery: both teams (6 archers) should qualify, anything less would be a major disappointment Artistic Swimming: full set for sure (8 girls, since the best male artistic swimmer in the world by far is still discriminated by the IOC and FINA ) Athletics: difficult to say, depending on the presence of the relays and the strenght in depth of many disciplines (thanks the new rules)...if in Rio it was little less than 40, this time I think it will be just beyond that (I wanna trust some of our youngsters to improve enough to qualify) Badminton: 0 to 3, more likely 1 or 2 Baseball: almost impossible to say at the moment (it depends on how many major leaguer we're able to collect for the European Qualification tournament in early 2020, since there's no way we can get to the Premier 12 this time round)...I'm quite pessimistic, anyway... Basketball: 3 (very pessimistic view, only the women's 3X3) to 30 (all teams, very, very optimistic view)...more likely, this time we're gonna have at least 1 5-aside team (and the 3X3 girls)... Beach Volleyball: 4 - 6 (1 M + 1 F pairs for sure, possibly a second men's pair) Boxing: I still hope that the IOC gets rid of this farce, but, in a different scenario, probably we're going to be able to qualify 2-3 women and 3-5 men... Canoeing - Slalom: 3 (both men's disciplines and women's K1)... Canoeing - Sprint: 2 (pessimistic view, only Tacchini in men's C-1 and the K-1 200m) to 9 (very optimistic view...men's K-1 200 and 1000, men's K-2 1000, men's K-4 500, men's C-1 and C-2 1000, women's K-1 200)...more likely, something in the middle of that... Cycling - BMX: 0-1, 0 more likely than 1 (unless someone appears from nothing in the freestyle section, which I admit I don't know anything about it)... Cycling - Mountain Bike: 3 men, 1 woman Cycling - Road: full set (6 M + 4 W, I think) Cycling - Track: both team pursuit crews, both omnium races, both madison races for sure...possibly the women's team sprint and the men's keirin (but it's a very long shot at the moment)... Diving: 1-3 men, 1-5 girls (depending a lot on the possible comeback of Tania Cagnotto)... Equestrian: hopefully both the Jumping and Eventing teams, but it's gonna be difficult (especially for the "eventers")... Fencing: 14-18 (18-24, if we consider also the reserves in the team events)...other than the full set would be a real shame, but the epee situation is really scaring at the moment, so it could well happen that we could miss out on both teams in this discipline... Field Hockey: I really hope that the girls this time can make it (16), but it's still a very long shot... Football: 20, only the men have a real shot at it (especially because we're gonna host the finals of the sub-21 champs -the qualifying event in Europe- next year)... Golf: 1-4...more likely 3 (2 M + 1 W) Gymnastics - Artistic: women's team + 1 or 2 male specialists (1 more likely than 2) Gymnastics - Rhythmic: full set (both the group and the 2 individualists) Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0 Handball: are you kidding me? 0 Judo: 5-11 (pessimistic view...-73 & -81 M + -52 & -63 W + 1 Continental repechage spot; optimistic view...5 M + 5 W through the ranking + 1 continental repechage spot)...more likely, 7 or 8 guys in total... Karate: if politics stay away from the mat, we have a chance to be one of the top Countries with up to 7 spots out of possible 8...even with this really stupid criteria...but, since I don't trust IOC and WKF, I guess that 4 spots would be already a success (both Kata places should be safe, and at least Busà and Cardin should qualify in the Kumite classes, even if I hope in the clean sweep among the boys and I trust Semeraro a lot among the girls) Modern Pentathlon: anything less than 4 would be ashame, even if this season's results are not as good as we expected (especially in the men's division)... Rowing: all the men's crews except for the single scull, not less than that...and hopefully 2 or 3 women's boats (both lightweight and senior double sculls and the senior pairs) Rugby Sevens: c'mon, man! 0, what else? Sailing: 5 (reasonably safe boats: men's laser, mixed nacra and both RS:X's) - 11 (optimistic view...adding both 470 boats, women's laser radial and men's finn to the reasonably safe boats)...good chance that at the end the magic number will be 9... Shooting: full set in shotgun shooting (I don't even consider any other option)...hopefully 3-6 pistol and rifle shooters (Giordano and Zublasing should be safe, the rest is just "light up a candle" to the Holy Virgin and wait)... Skateboarding: 1-3 (Ivan Federico at the moment is our only real threat, but Asia Lanzi is growing -she's still a baby- and maybe Alex Sorgente takes his final decision about competing for Italy or the USA)... Softball: it's the eternal fight between ITA and NED...the Dutch are the favourites to take the only European spot, but it's gonna be close, I guess... Sport Climbing: hopefully 1 M + 1 W, but the new Olympic format is a farce and we still have to see the real development of the game in this direction...from now to the Tokyo Games, there will be some surprising results, that's sure... Surfing: 0-3...Fioravanti has slim chances among the boys...and we have 3-4 girls that could even earn a spot (with some...actually, a lot of luck)...however, just 1 spot (it doeasn't matter who wins it) would be great for us... Swimming: too difficult to say right now (too many variables pending atm)...let's try and say 22-25 men and 15-18 women (4 more if the 4*200m free relay does qualify)... Table Tennis: boh??? I hope 1 M + 1 W, but I don't know if we can do it... Taekwondo: 1-3, 1 (Dell'Aquila in the men's -58kg) more likely than 3 Tennis: 1 W (if they want Giorgi in the team and she keeps up with her recent Wimbledon shape) and 2/3 M Triathlon: hopefully 2 M + 3 W Volleyball: both teams...I refuse to think they will miss out... Water Polo: see just above... Weightlifting: given the current situation of this sport, there's a chance to earn 3 M + 2/3 W spots...let's see if it really happens... Wrestling: atm only Chamizo and (if and when his Italian passport comes) Kudiiamagomedov in the men's Freestyle are "real threats" (even for the medals, not only to qualify, which should be easy for them), but we have at least 3/4 other "hopefuls" (Sandron in men's GR, Conyedo -who's in the same situation as Kudiiamagomedov- in men's FS and Caneva & Da Col in women's wrestling) to at least earn their flight to Tokyo... Total Sports: All but 3 (with 6 or 7 more "in between") Optimistic Total Athletes: 480/490 Realistic Total Athletes: 350/360 Pessimistic Total Athletes: I don't want to think of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 776 Posted July 29, 2018 #29 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Am 26.7.2018 um 19:28 schrieb EselTheDonkey: About Fencing: I am slightly more optimistic, because this time there will be team events for all weapons. Men's sabre and Women's foil at the very least have a good chance to qualify, which would make already six competitors. And three more individual athletes seems possible, IMO. As I said, I really don't know about sailing (Sailing bores me, to be honest). I was just guessing based on the last few Olympics. Therefore I certainly won't contradict you. Yeah, I was probably a bit too optimistisc at Judo, but everything under 10 competitors would seriously disappoint me. And I avoided a specific number on purpose. But I think it will be less starters than in Rio, unless we qualify in a lot of team sports. The National Athletics and Swimming Federations will probably be much less generous, to begin with. Swimming: In 2016 Germany had 29 athletes in swimming, i think it will be about the same this time. Lambertz sadly always wants to nominate relays, so there you already have about 20 athletes, if you add open water, you are at 24-25 and then we have athletes like Köhler, Wellbrock, Hentke, Heintz who are probably gonna make it too. Athletics: I was surprised to see that Germany had 85 athletes in 2016, my surprise probably came from the fact that many of those athletes didnt even make it past the first round and i therefore didnt really notice them. I think it would be better to send 60-70 athletes who mostly have a realistic chance of at least finishing top 12. For example i am not sure whether it would really make sense to nominate any male runners (maybe except for Traber) or any athletes in marathon (maybe except for Melat Yisak Kejeta, if she will be allowed to compete for Germany). One of the most interesting questions for me currently is whether Germany will qualify someone in hammer throw. I hope that one of the talents (Fromm on the womens side, Mikhailov/Hilbig on the mens side) breaks through, but the entry standards are probably gonna be insane again in field events, so i dont really have much hope. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,362 Posted July 29, 2018 #30 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Poland - I think approximately 250 athletes I think it is right number if we compare it with how many of them were in previous games But I'm afraid that there will be only one team in team Sports - men's volleyball All the others have a very Slim chance to qualify - especially men's handball, which is a Shame after the semis in Rio I also hope that many swimmers will go - I don't understand why Polish olympic commitee doesn't like to let go all the swimmers who achieved A standard in all the qualifying timeline and don't accept every chance to send all the swimmers with B standard who are invited by IOC (please look at the MARCIN CIEŚLAK case before Rio) - and then we are so happy about every single qualifications in some sports which - let's be honest - are not in the golden circle - like - I don't want to be offensive to anyone - tug of war, ringo or bodybuilding :-) of course I'm joking I wait in vains for Tokyo, my vacation 2020 already planned, can;t wait. I have this feeling it will be the best games ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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