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How Many Athletes will Your Nation Qualify for the Summer Olympic Games 2020?


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Tokyo Qualification Events have already begun and this year we have many of them.

Earlier we had a thread about Early Team Sports Qualification Predictions, but now with little less than two years to the beginning of the Games, it's time to open thread for official qualification predictions.



Here is a Template you can follow for a detailed prediction by Sport.

Copy, paste and edit the text inside the brackets.

icon_oly01.png Archery: add your text/number here

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: add your text/number here

icon_oly02.png Athletics: add your text/number here

icon_oly04.png Badminton: add your text/number here

icon_oly29.png Baseball: add your text/number here

icon_oly05.png Basketball: add your text/number here

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: add your text/number here

icon_oly06.png Boxing: add your text/number here

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: add your text/number here

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: add your text/number here

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: add your text/number here

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: add your text/number here

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: add your text/number here

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: add your text/number here

icon_oly03.png Diving: add your text/number here

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: add your text/number here

icon_oly10.png Fencing: add your text/number here

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: add your text/number here

icon_oly11.png Football: add your text/number here

icon_oly13.png Golf: add your text/number here

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: add your text/number here

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: add your text/number here

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: add your text/number here

icon_oly14.png Handball: add your text/number here

icon_oly16.png Judo: add your text/number here

icon_oly29.png Karate: add your text/number here

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: add your text/number here

icon_oly18.png Rowing: add your text/number here

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: add your text/number here

icon_oly20.png Sailing: add your text/number here

icon_oly21.png Shooting: add your text/number here

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: add your text/number here

icon_oly29.png Softball: add your text/number here

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: add your text/number here

icon_oly29.png Surfing: add your text/number here

icon_oly03.png Swimming: add your text/number here

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: add your text/number here

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: add your text/number here

icon_oly24.png Tennis: add your text/number here

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: add your text/number here

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: add your text/number here

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: add your text/number here

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: add your text/number here

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: add your text/number here

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: add your text/number here

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: add your text/number here

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Ok, I'll try giving out my predictions for Italy :d



icon_oly01.png Archery: 6 6 4

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: 8 8 8

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 60 50 35

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 3 1 0

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 24 0 0

icon_oly05.png Basketball: 32 16 0

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: 8 6 4

icon_oly06.png Boxing: 8 5 3

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: 4 3 2

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: 8 5 3

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: 2 1 0

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 5 4 2

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: 9 8 7

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 15 12 10

icon_oly03.png Diving: 6 4 2

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: 9 7 4

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 18 16 13

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: 16 16 0

icon_oly11.png Football: 36 18 0

icon_oly13.png Golf: 4 3 2

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: 10 6 5

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic:  7 6 6

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: 1 0 0

icon_oly14.png Handball: 0 0 0

icon_oly16.png Judo: 10 8 4

icon_oly29.png Karate: 6 3 1

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 4 3 2

icon_oly18.png Rowing: 48 40 30

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: 0 0 0

icon_oly20.png Sailing: 15 12 10

icon_oly21.png Shooting: 20 14 10

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: 2 1 0

icon_oly29.png Softball: 15 0 0 

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 3 2 0

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 1 0 0 

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 50 35 25

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 2 1 0

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: 2 2 0

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 6 4 3

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: 5 4 3

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: 24 24 12

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: 22 22 22 

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 4 2 2

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: 6 3 2

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 41

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 544

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 381

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 236

Edited by AlFHg
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Let's start :d


icon_oly01.png Archery: Italy will provabily qualify all athletes without big problems.

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: We improve in the last 10 years, like in Rio the objective in archive the full quota.

icon_oly02.png Athletics: In London and in Rio we qualified 38 athletes, we can try to sent in Rio 45 athletetes.

icon_oly04.png Badminton: I will put my money on Caponio and Garino/Iversen, it will be hard.

icon_oly29.png Baseball: No chance here, Netherlands will win the european quota.

icon_oly05.png Basketball: With some luck our men's team can back at the games.

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: Probabily 3 pairs (2 M +1 W)

icon_oly06.png Boxing: From 5 to 7 quotas

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: We improve a lot in canoe slalom, 4 quotas can be a good result

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: Around 6 athletes... I hope

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: Maybe 1, maybe 0... who know

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2/3 men and 1 woman.

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: Italy will easy qualify the max contigent

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: Italy is actually without a velodrome :facepalm:

icon_oly03.png Diving: Let's hope that Cagnotto will back... 

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: It will be amazing if we reach to qualify the jumping and the eventing team. Our dressage is dead

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 24 athletes, why not? :d

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: Women's team are our biggest hope

icon_oly11.png Football: I don't know... we'll host the U21 European championship, we can try to reach the semifinals.

icon_oly13.png Golf: 2 M + 1 W

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: Around 6 athletes

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Full quotas :)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: Our biggest athlete is a 37 years old and he will watch the Games on his sofa

icon_oly14.png Handball: Italian handball? What is?

icon_oly16.png Judo: From 6 to 8 quotas

icon_oly29.png Karate: Very strict qualification process, from 1 to 4.

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: We have a great women's team and a nice men's team.. 3/4 quotas I guess

icon_oly18.png Rowing: From 23 to 27 quotas

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: What? :p

icon_oly20.png Sailing: Like in Rio, 13 quotas.

icon_oly21.png Shooting: I guess 13 quotas

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: I know only Ivan Federico

icon_oly29.png Softball: Our team will fight against Netherlands for the spot

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 2 quotas

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 1 or 0

icon_oly03.png Swimming: From 30 to 35

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 1 or 0

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: Dell'Aquila is the biggest chance, maybe Rotolo

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 6 or 4

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: It's hard to say.. maybe 4 or 5.

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: Both teams

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: Both teams

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: From 2 to 4

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: Chamizo is the only one that is sure to archive the qualification

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 36

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 406

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 297

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 241

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icon_oly01.png Archery: 2 Men's Individual and 1 Women's Individual.

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming:  0 or 2 

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 40-45

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 1 Men's Singles and 1 Women's Singles.

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 0

icon_oly05.png Basketball: It's almost impossible, but maybe our male team. The women's team with no chances.

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: Full Team.

icon_oly06.png Boxing: 3-5

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: 3

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint:  Full time in the canoe. Maybe 1 in the kayak.

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: 2

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: 1

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 1?

icon_oly03.png Diving: 1-2

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: Eventing and Jumping Teams. 1 or 2 in Dressage.


icon_oly10.png Fencing: 3 or 4 Individual and 1 Team.

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: 0

icon_oly11.png Football: Both Teams or only the Women's Team


icon_oly13.png Golf: 1 or 2

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: Both Teams

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 1?

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0-1

icon_oly14.png Handball: Both Teams or only the Women's Team

icon_oly16.png Judo: 11-14

icon_oly29.png Karate: 3-5

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 0-2

icon_oly18.png Rowing: 1/2?

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: Women's Team

icon_oly20.png Sailing: 6 or 7

icon_oly21.png Shooting: 4 or 5

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: 10/12

icon_oly29.png Softball: 0

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: With luck... Maybe 1.


icon_oly29.png Surfing: Full Team.

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 22-24

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: Full Men's Team and 1 or 2 in Women's Singles.

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: 2 or 3.

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 4 or 5

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: 1?

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: Both Teams.


icon_oly03.png Water Polo: If we play well at the Pan American Games, the men's team.

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 1-3

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: 2 or 3

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports:  37

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 280-300

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 240-265

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 215-225

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icon_oly01.png Archery: Hopefully Alexandra Longová will make it, she definitely has the capabilities to do it. It would be great to take part in this sport for the second time in a row.


icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: Jana Labáthová/Naďa Daabousová were in Rio and I am quite confident they will be in Tokyo as well.


icon_oly02.png Athletics: Hard to predict, but I guess the likes of Matej Tóth 50km RW, Ján Volko 100/200, Mária Czáková RW, Marcel Lomnický HT are the safest athletes + I guess we will somehow manage to qualify few more (M 40m H, HJ, Race Walk, Marathon / W 400m, 800m, 400m H, HT, LJ and TJ)

between 14

icon_oly04.png Badminton: We apparently have some juniors prospects but the level is too far from the required ones of the Olypics


icon_oly29.png Baseball: How is this at the Olympics ?


icon_oly05.png Basketball: pass


icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: our best ever pair we had in this sport Nata Dubovcová/Dominika Nestarcová split up after missing to qualify for Rio, so now we are without any chance to mark our debut in this sport under the five rings


icon_oly06.png Boxing: Jessica Triebeľová is our biggest talent we had, still a high school student is our only medal chance for the upcoming Youth Olympics, 3 years undefeated so far, her biggest dream is to qualify for Tokyo, so hopefully she will fulfill her dream, and SVK will finally sign it´s second participation in this sport since Atlanta 1996. Maybe one of the guys will qualify this time too..why not, especially the Europeans Games bronze medalist Viliam Tankó with some luck can do it


icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: Full team, otherwise Riots


icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: K4-500m M, K2-1000m should be safe, Ivana Mládková (Kmeťová) in W K1 will qualify as well I guess, maybe few more surprises will be added


icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: No way


icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: Hopefully we will qualify at least 1 guy (Martin Haring  is our biggest option) but it will be very hard


icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: I sincerely hope this time we will avoid all bad lucks we had before Rio and qualify at least 3 guys. This is still the only major title Sagan is missing


icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: Alžbeta Pavlendová is our hope, but again, she had to avoid injuries and have at least a small portion of luck, It was really sad how she missed Rio


icon_oly03.png Diving: Non-existent sport in the country


icon_oly09.png Equestrian: Impossible, too low level


icon_oly10.png Fencing: Zero interest in the country, never heard, saw or read even a single word about it outside the Olympics every 4 years. few athletes competing but only a la Coubertin


icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: No ice, no fun


icon_oly11.png Football: Unfortunately Rio 2016 generation was our brightest chance to qualify for the Olympics first time since Sydney, but a motherfucker son of a bitch referee decided otherwise, so we will have to wait at least another 20 years


icon_oly13.png Golf: Sport still only in it´s beginning here


icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: I hope Barbara Mokošová will qualify, she deserve it, this time maybe even a man will accompany her hopefully but chances are much more lower than about Barbora


icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: our girls are not even able to handle their apparatus for a half of their routine as I saw once in a video in this forum :lol:


icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: Non-existent sport in the country (Thankfully)


icon_oly14.png Handball: few years back we were quite good M and few years later W but still far from Olympic chances, now we are so extremely bad in this sport M and W so it´s impossible to even reflect about the Olympics participation even in the future


icon_oly16.png Judo: We are desperately bad in combat sports


icon_oly29.png Karate: Surprisingly we are not so bad in this combat sport lol, 1-2 girls should qualify


icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: once again, Modern Pentawhat ?


icon_oly18.png Rowing: no wildwater ? no upstream gates ? so no quotas then. Easy as that


icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: :roflmao:


icon_oly20.png Sailing: we have no sea :(


icon_oly21.png Shooting: yep, hope not jinx it, but the mixed trap (Zuzana Rehák Štefečeková/Erik Varga or Marián Kovačócy) should be one of our biggest medal chances, Danka Barteková hopefully will qualify in Skeet too, I have hopes in few more quotas in Pistol events


icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: We have one guy from Košice who is really carefully and consistently collecting points, so maybe Richard Tury will be in Tokyo


icon_oly29.png Softball: Seriously, you remove C2 to add this ? this is not a sport...


icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: Climbing ? yes, we have beautiful and majestic Tatras, I invite you all to visit them


icon_oly29.png Surfing: dude..


icon_oly03.png Swimming: Richard Nagy, Tomáš Klobučník among mens and few girls like Mišendová, Hájková and especially Podmaníková are our chances to qualify for Tokyo


icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: Barbora Balážová and Wang Yanag or Ľubomír Pištej should hopefully qualify, maybe some our current interesting junior will make it too


icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: even lower chances than Basketball..


icon_oly24.png Tennis: Cibulková, Rybáriková, Kužmová, Kližan, Lacko, Martin or Gomboš...there a lot of chances to qualify a solid amount of athletes...hopefully no Zika virus will be observed in japan in 2 years...


icon_oly25.png Triathlon: The best swimmer of the triathlon circuit can not be missed. Richard Varga for his 3rd Olympic in a row


icon_oly26.png Volleyball: Far of the required rankings level


icon_oly03.png Water Polo: we always play, we always learn but we always lost


icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: I think we will qualify one guy again, Matej Kováč maybe


icon_oly28.png Wrestling: Honestly I have no idea, we have a armada of former Russians competing for us, time by time some of them even won medals, like at last world champs Boris Makoev silver, so who know maybe he and/or someone else will qualify


2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports:  19

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 64

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: 59

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: everything below 50

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4 minutes ago, intoronto said:

That's like asking why is canoe slalom anywhere near the Olympic program? Finally a team sport that is not centred in Europe!


yeah because in Rio only European teams won team sports :d apart Handball, W football, W Field Hockey and M water polo it was always another continent country winning gold



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3 minutes ago, hckosice said:


yeah because in Rio only European teams won team sports :d apart Handball, W football, W Field Hockey and M water polo it was always another continent country winning gold



Yes but one would argue all team sports on the current Summer Olympic program is heavily European based except basketball.


Also "Sport Climbing: Climbing ? yes, we have beautiful and majestic Tatras, I invite you all to visit them" :lol:

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26 minutes ago, hckosice said:

Equestrian: Impossible, too low level


Well, I assume Samorin will be the likely host of the Group C team jumping qualifications, so you never know. With quotas being increased from one to two and Ukraine (probably) not cheating anymore, there will be a room for a Slovakian surprise. Which would be really crazy. :d

All King Victor Emmanuel's Show Horses Can Make Really Beautiful People Fall

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icon_oly01.png Archery: 0-1 (women individual)

icon_oly03.png Artistic Swimming: 0

icon_oly02.png Athletics: 13-16

icon_oly04.png Badminton: 0 - only core sport Argentina has never qualified.

icon_oly29.png Baseball: 0

icon_oly05.png Basketball: 0-12 (men, 50/50 chance)

icon_oly26.png Beach Volleyball: 0-4

icon_oly06.png Boxing: 1-2

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Slalom: 0-1

icon_oly07.png Canoeing - Sprint: 2-10 (for sure K1 200 and 1000 in men, I don't know if there is still continental quota for K4)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - BMX: 1-2 (could be two men -difficult- or one each gender)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Mountain Bike: 0-1 (men)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Road: 1-3 (men)

icon_oly08.png Cycling - Track: 0-1 (omnium if he improves, but most likely nothing)

icon_oly03.png Diving: 0 - this sport is currently inexistent

icon_oly09.png Equestrian: 1-4 maybe we can qualify the jumping team again. 

icon_oly10.png Fencing: 2-3 (by ranking in women sabre/men epee, maybe  continental quota in Women epee) 

icon_oly15.png Field Hockey: 32

icon_oly11.png Football: 0-18 (men)

icon_oly13.png Golf: 1-2 (men only)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Artistic: 2 (men&women individual)

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0

icon_oly12.png Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0

icon_oly14.png Handball: 0-14 (maybe the men can qualify, 50/50 against Brazil)

icon_oly16.png Judo: 1-2 (Paula Pareto and... maybe someone else)

icon_oly29.png Karate: 0-1 (it's a long shot)

icon_oly17.png Modern Pentathlon: 1-2 (women for sure, men maybe)

icon_oly18.png Rowing: 2-8 (for sure the singles, maybe the lightweight doubles and maybe men double sculls if they can improve a bit)

icon_oly19.png Rugby Sevens: 12 (men)

icon_oly20.png Sailing: 11-13 (everything except the 470s -men with light chance-)

icon_oly21.png Shooting: 4-5 (10m air rifle m&w, skeet m&w and maybe we can qualify someone in trap or 3 positions)

icon_oly29.png Skateboarding: 0 - no idea, but I don't think we have much chance.

icon_oly29.png Softball: 0

icon_oly29.png Sport Climbing: 0 - no idea, we have good young climber girl for YOG but don't think she will have level to qualify for Tokyo.

icon_oly29.png Surfing: 0

icon_oly03.png Swimming: 7-10 (women breastroke 100 and 200, women freestyle all except 100, men freestyle 50, 100, 200, women medley 200, 400, men  butterfly 100, 200, open water women)

icon_oly22.png Table Tennis: 0-1 (maybe one men)

icon_oly23.png Taekwondo: 0-1 (maybe Lucas Guzmán can qualify this time)

icon_oly24.png Tennis: 4 (full men team, no women)

icon_oly25.png Triathlon: 1-2

icon_oly26.png Volleyball: 12-24 (men certainly and women depending on Brazil mostly)

icon_oly03.png Water Polo: 0

icon_oly27.png Weightlifting: 0 - we're pathetic

icon_oly28.png Wrestling: 1 - Bermúdez again in W freestyle.

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Total Sports: 21-32

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Optimistic Total Athletes: 214

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Realistic Total Athletes: Around 150

2020Tokyo.png.5b0ae7e11858b8cd415a9f2123 Pessimistic Total Athletes: 112
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