Ashton 13 Posted July 22, 2021 #101 Share Posted July 22, 2021 I'll go for 13. It might sound ridiculously high let's see. All stars have to align with some lucky medal winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaBUru38 204 Posted July 22, 2021 #102 Share Posted July 22, 2021 I expect no medal, but maybe we get lucky in sailing, rowing or long jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vektor 3,177 Posted August 8, 2021 #103 Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 06/07/2021 at 11:30, Vektor said: I am trying to be at least somewhat optimistic, so I am going with this kind of calculation for Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (2 gold) Swimming, men's 200 fly Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (2 gold, 3 other medals) Fencing, men's team sabre Swimming, men's 100m butterfly Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (2 gold, 10 other medals) Athletics, women's heptathlon Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m Fencing, men's individual sabre Fencing, women's individual sabre Fencing, women's team sabre Judo, men's 90kg Modern Pentathlon, women's individual Modern Pentathlon, men's individual Sailing, men's finn Shooting, men's 10m air rifle Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos Swimming, men's 400m IM Swimming, women's 400m IM Swimming, women's 200m fly Swimming, women's 10km Swimming, men's 10km Water Polo, men's Water Polo, women's Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg Gold medals: 2+2+2 = 6 Other medals: 3+10 = 13 Overall medal count: 19 So in terms of gold medals less than what we are used to but in terms of the overall medal count this would be the best since 1996. Makes sense to me, we don't have many undeniable favorites, but have a solid number of medal contenders, maybe more than in the last few Olympic cycles. lol, I can't believe that I almost got it right. I projected 6 gold and 19 total medals and we ended up with 6 gold and 20 total medals. I thought that this was a mildly optimistic projection, my realistic projection was 5 gold and 15 total medals, which for me shows that we did really well. Here's the recap with the results added: Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (projection: 2 gold / result: 2 gold) Swimming, men's 200 fly - GOLD Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m - GOLD Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (projection: 2 gold, 3 other medals / result: 2 gold, 4 other medals) Fencing, men's team sabre - BRONZE Swimming, men's 100m butterfly - SILVER Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m - GOLD, SILVER Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m - BRONZE Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg - GOLD Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (projection: 2 gold, 10 other medals / result: 2 gold, 9 other medals) Athletics, women's heptathlon - 13th Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m - 6th Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m - GOLD Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m - SILVER Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m - 5th Fencing, men's individual sabre - GOLD Fencing, men's individual epée - SILVER Fencing, women's individual sabre - 4th Fencing, women's team sabre - 8th Judo, men's 90kg - BRONZE Modern Pentathlon, women's individual - BRONZE Modern Pentathlon, men's individual - 6th Sailing, men's finn - SILVER Shooting, men's 10m air rifle - 5th Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos - 10th Swimming, men's 400m IM - 4th Swimming, women's 400m IM - 5th Swimming, women's 200m fly - 4th Swimming, women's 10km - 4th Swimming, men's 10km - SILVER Water Polo, men's - BRONZE Water Polo, women's - BRONZE Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg - 12th Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg - SILVER Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg - 5th Events with a small chance for a medal (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 medal, plus a couple of good results) Karate, kumite, 75kg - BRONZE Canoe Sprint, men's K2 1000m - 4th Taekwondo, men's 58kg - 5th Judo, women's 52kg - 5th Swimming, men's 4x100m freestyle relay - 5th Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 97kg - 5th Events with zero chance for anything (projection: 0 medal / result: 1 completely unexpected 4th place) Cycling - Mountain Bike, women's - 4th thiago_simoes, MagyarBabu, pdr4332 and 2 others 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagyarBabu 86 Posted August 8, 2021 #104 Share Posted August 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Vektor said: lol, I can't believe that I almost got it right. I projected 6 gold and 19 total medals and we ended up with 6 gold and 20 total medals. I thought that this was a mildly optimistic projection, my realistic projection was 5 gold and 15 total medals, which for me shows that we did really well. Here's the recap with the results added: Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (projection: 2 gold / result: 2 gold) Swimming, men's 200 fly - GOLD Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m - GOLD Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (projection: 2 gold, 3 other medals / result: 2 gold, 4 other medals) Fencing, men's team sabre - BRONZE Swimming, men's 100m butterfly - SILVER Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m - GOLD, SILVER Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m - BRONZE Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg - GOLD Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (projection: 2 gold, 10 other medals, result: 2 gold, 9 other medals) Athletics, women's heptathlon - 13th Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m - 6th Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m - GOLD Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m - SILVER Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m - 5th Fencing, men's individual sabre - GOLD Fencing, men's individual epée - SILVER Fencing, women's individual sabre - 4th Fencing, women's team sabre - 8th Judo, men's 90kg - BRONZE Modern Pentathlon, women's individual - BRONZE Modern Pentathlon, men's individual - 6th Sailing, men's finn - SILVER Shooting, men's 10m air rifle - 5th Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos - 10th Swimming, men's 400m IM - 4th Swimming, women's 400m IM - 5th Swimming, women's 200m fly - 4th Swimming, women's 10km - 4th Swimming, men's 10km - SILVER Water Polo, men's - BRONZE Water Polo, women's - BRONZE Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg - 12th Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg - SILVER Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg - 5th Events with a small chance for a medal (projection: 0 medal, result: 1 medal, plus a couple of good results) Karate, kumite, 75kg - BRONZE Canoe Sprint, men's K2 1000m - 4th Taekwondo, men's 58kg - 5th Judo, women's 52kg - 5th Swimming, men's 4x100m freestyle relay - 5th Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 97kg - 5th Events with zero chance for anything (projection: 0 medal, result: 1 completely unexpected 4th place) Cycling - Mountain Bike, women's - 4th So, let’s predict something more next time! You have good powers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makedonas 1,557 Posted August 8, 2021 #105 Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 06/07/2021 at 11:48, Makedonas said: I'll say 5-6 for Greece, with Petrounias and Tentoglou being the only ones that I would surprised if they did not win medals. So in the end we got 4, but Petrounias and Tentoglou did win medals. Although we didn't win as many as I would have liked, we were pretty close and I think these were decent Games for us. We had many young athletes come very close to winning medals and I think Paris 2024 and Los Angeles 2028 will be very very good for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jinzha 512 Posted August 8, 2021 #106 Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 06/07/2021 at 17:27, Jinzha said: Update of my prediction from earlier this year: Archery: 0-1 Athletics: 0-3 (was 0-2) Cycling road: 2-3 (was 1-2) Cycling track: 3-5 BMX: 1-2 Mountainbike: 1 Field hockey: 1-2 Artistic gymnastics: 0 (was 0-1) Handball: 0 (was 0-1) Judo: 1-2 Rowing: 3-5 Sailing: 3-4 Swimming: 0-3 (was 0-2) Suprise medal: 1-3 Total: 16-34 (was 15-33) Changes: Athletics: added Femke Bol Cycling road: another women's cycling medal. I really think they could get 3 medals in 2 events, Van der Breggen, Van Vleuten, Vos and Vollering are unstoppable (except by Dychert). Artistic gymnastics: removed Zonderland, I sadly don't see it happening anymore Handball: removed women's team, their preparation has been messy and results in friendlies disappointing Swimming: added a third potential medal for our contenders Kamminga (100m/200m breast) / Kromowidjojo (50m free)/ Weertman and Van Rouwendaal (10km open water) So I made in my prediction a range from pessimistic to optimistic. Turns out I wasn't optimistic enough after all! Update of my prediction from earlier this year: Archery: 0-1 -> 1 Athletics: 0-3 -> 8 Cycling road: 2-3 -> 4 Cycling track: 3-5 -> 6 BMX: 1-2 -> 2 Mountainbike: 1 -> 0 Field hockey: 1-2 -> 1 Artistic gymnastics: 0 -> 0 Handball: 0 -> 0 Judo: 1-2 -> 1 Rowing: 3-5 -> 5 Sailing: 3-4 -> 3 Swimming: 0-3 -> 3 Suprise medal: 1-3 -> 2 Total: 16-34 -> 36 Only one medal below the pessimistic range, because I foolishly put Van der Poel as a guaranteed medal and not Bol or Hassan. From the optimistic ranges only men's hockey team, a judo medal and one more sailing medal (De Geus in RS:X women) missed out. The surprise medals happened mostly within the already mentioned sports, but the two missing from the list were Fontijn (boxing) and Van der Vleuten (horse jumping). The 8 athletics medals are the huge outlier that I did not predict and in road and track cycling I had not considered medals for Dumoulin and Braspenninx. rafalgorka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laraja 1,331 Posted August 8, 2021 #107 Share Posted August 8, 2021 I made this prediction two years ago, and.... I got the exactly number of medals for Of course I didn't predict all the correct sports, but the number I did! I am full of myself rafalgorka and thiago_simoes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intoronto 4,071 Posted August 8, 2021 #108 Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 07/07/2021 at 07:22, intoronto said: Something like this. 20-24 range seems possible. Ideally over 22 I got this right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thiago_simoes 1,359 Posted August 8, 2021 #109 Share Posted August 8, 2021 On 20/07/2021 at 01:47, thiago_simoes said: Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions. "Safe" medals Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal Athletics: 1 medal Boxing: 1 medal Judo: 1 medal Sailing: 1 medal Skateboarding: 3 medals Sprint canoeing: 2 medals Surfing: 2 medals Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals Likely, but definitely not easy: Football: 1 medal Taekwondo: 1 medal Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals Unlikely, but feasible medals Cycling: 1 medal Fencing: 1 medal Slalom canoeing: 1 medal Tennis: 1 medal Nearly impossible medals Archery: 1 medal Table tennis: 1 medal Wrestling: 1 medal I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number. Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore. Okay, let's check how many I got right."Safe" medalsArtistic gymnastics: 1 medal --> 2 medals (1 more than what I predicted)Athletics: 1 medal --> 2 medals (1 more)Boxing: 1 medal --> 3 medals (2 more)Judo: 1 medal --> 2 medals (1 more) Sailing: 1 medal --> 1 medal Skateboarding: 3 medals --> 3 medals Sprint canoeing: 2 medals --> 1 medal Surfing: 2 medals --> 1 medalVolleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals --> 1 medal Likely, but definitely not easy: Football: 1 medal --> 1 medalTaekwondo: 1 medal --> No medals Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals --> 3 medals (1 more) Unlikely, but feasible medals Cycling: 1 medal --> No medalsFencing: 1 medal --> No medals Slalom canoeing: 1 medal --> No medalsTennis: 1 medal --> 1 medal Nearly impossible medals Archery: 1 medal --> No medals Table tennis: 1 medal --> No medals Wrestling: 1 medal --> No medals All in all, I'm happy with my predictions. The medals which I thought were nearly impossible were, indeed, impossible. Among the unlikely medals, we got 1 out of 4. Among the likely medals, we got 4 out of 4, but only because we got one more medal than I expected in swimming, while in taekwondo our best finish was 5th. Still close. Among the safe medals, I got every sport correctly, and actually two more medals than I had originally predicted. Major surprises for me: artistic gymnastics, boxing, tennis and swimming Major disappointments: fencing, cycling, volleyball/beach volleyball and taekwondo rafalgorka and Laraja 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoversaBR 281 Posted August 8, 2021 #110 Share Posted August 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Laraja said: I made this prediction two years ago, and.... I got the exactly number of medals for Of course I didn't predict all the correct sports, but the number I did! I am full of myself "Beach Volleyball: 2(maybe more)" Laraja and thiago_simoes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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