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How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the 2020 Olympics? (Final Version)


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I am trying to be at least somewhat optimistic, so I am going with this kind of calculation for :HUN 

 

Events where anything other than gold would be a big disappointment (2 gold)

  •  Swimming, men's 200 fly
  • Canoe Sprint, women's K4 500m

 

Events where I am expecting a medal no matter what, close to 50% of them should give us a gold (2 gold, 3 other medals)

  • Fencing, men's team sabre
  • Swimming, men's 100m butterfly
  • Canoe Sprint, men's K1 1000m
  • Canoe Sprint, women's K2 500m
  • Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 77kg

 

Events where we have a good chance for a medal, I would say that around 10% of them are gold, 40% of them are silver or bronze (2 gold, 10 other medals)

  • Athletics, women's heptathlon
  • Canoe Sprint, women's K1 200m
  • Canoe Sprint, men's K1 200m
  • Canoe Sprint, women's K1 500m
  • Canoe Sprint, women's C2 500m
  • Fencing, men's individual sabre
  • Fencing, women's individual sabre
  • Fencing, women's team sabre
  • Judo, men's 90kg
  • Modern Pentathlon, women's individual
  • Modern Pentathlon, men's individual
  • Sailing, men's finn
  • Shooting, men's 10m air rifle
  • Shooting, men's 50m rifle 3 pos
  • Swimming, men's 400m IM
  • Swimming, women's 400m IM
  • Swimming, women's 200m fly
  • Swimming, women's 10km
  • Swimming, men's 10km
  • Water Polo, men's
  • Water Polo, women's
  • Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 67kg
  • Wrestling, men's Greco-Roman 87kg
  • Wrestling, men's freestyle 65kg

 

Gold medals: 2+2+2 = 6

Other medals: 3+10 = 13

 

Overall medal count: 19

 

So in terms of gold medals less than what we are used to but in terms of the overall medal count this would be the best since 1996. Makes sense to me, we don't have many undeniable favorites, but have a solid number of medal contenders, maybe more than in the last few Olympic cycles. 

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Posted (edited)

For Brazil at least 15 :BRA

 

Skate: 2

Football: 1

Athletics: 1

Surfing: 3

Canoeing: 2

Volleyball (and BV): 2

Judo: 1

Sailing: 1

Boxing: 1

Gymnatics: 1

 

(Realistic i think)

 

Optmitic I think i around 20

Edited by LuizGuilherme
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