Surlympics

All weight classes are open entry (I’m pretty sure), so it depends on which events Wrestling Canada decides to send athletes in. I’m not exactly sure if Morais (and A. Godinez) will be our representatives at the World Qualification Tournament, given they failed to secure a quota at a much easier opportunity. Probably will go with Di Bacco (in women’s 68kg) and Wiecker/Stewart (in women’s 53kg)

Second quota, in women's 62 kg

Quota in Wrestling 57Kg!

Alexander Moore qualifies for Paris in men’s 86kg wrestling!

Dhesi claims the 125kg quota
 
So Canada earned 5/16 quota spots here.

3 Canadians have advanced to the semis in men's wrestling this afternoon.
 
Edit - Dhesi (125kg), Moore (86kg) and McNeil (65kg)

Sarah Mitton wins women’s shot put gold at the World Indoor Championships, with a new national record of 20.22m!

Justina Di Stasio secures a quota in women’s 76kg for Paris through the Pan American Qualifier! 

Ana Godinez also secures a quota in women’s 62kg at the Pan American Qualifier!

First quota in wrestling, with Hannah Taylor in women’s 57kg at the Pan American Qualifier!

Perhaps in the future, but given the fact she failed to qualify to the World League, she's still behind the top surfers. I look forward to seeing her in 2028.
 
 
From a qualifying to the Olympics perspective surfing had one of the lowest chances, but that's more due to our versatility. Right now we are on pace at qualifying in 28/32 sports. Not many nations have that kind of reach. Modern pentathlon could have someone if Fitzsimmons competes at the World Cups while sport climbing is quite unlikely. Field Hockey and Handball obviously has no chance now.

Realistically, surfing is still one of our weaker sports. The fact we have anyone competing is a pleasant surprise.
 
Based on her performance over the past year Brooks' silver medal last year was more of a fluke and unlikely to be replicated.

Other than a long course world record, she's accomplished everything you can in this sport. Will never forget waking up at 4 in 2019 to see her upset Sjoestroem in the 100 fly and then becoming an Olympic Champion two years later. She'll always be a legend.

We're lucky she's still competing, her initial plan was to retire after Tokyo but she stuck around for one more Olympics because she feels she didn't get a "proper" Olympic experience due to the pandemic.

Erin Brooks is likely to have a pretty long career, if she's as good as she's hyped up to be she'll be a medal contender in 2028 and 2032 (and will be able to qualify through the WSL, which is a more reliable way to qualify)
 
16 is really young for a surfer.

She got Canadian citizenship....
 
Kidding, kidding. 
 
Sort of. 

Erin Brooks will not qualify for Paris, after bowing out during repechage 3 at the ISA Surf Games. What a disappointing result, she was expected to potentially contend for an Olympic medal. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C31DtxPPV7h

Women’s team wins bronze at the HSBC Vancouver SVNS after defeating Australia 19-14!
 
Might be in with a shot at a medal at the Olympics if they continue with this form. 

I mostly agree, but I think there’s some areas where you’re underestimatin Canada. 
 
Volleyball (-12) - Despite their momentum, I don’t see our women’s volleyball team qualifying. ALSO, it’d take a big upset for us to not qualify a second pairing in women’s beach volleyball, with it being either Pavan/McBain or Bukovec/Bansley at the NORCECA Qualifier. I’d also give a solid chance to Scachter/Dearing. We’d be rooting for Diaz/Alayo and a second American pairing to qualify through the World Rankings to be almost guaranteed, but even if both are there I wouldn’t write us off. 
 
Rowing (-10) - I think you’re crazy to think that Canada will qualify 30 (!) athletes in rowing. We’ve been on a decline ever since Tokyo, and I don’t see us coming back from it in time for the Final Qualification Regatta. I’m thinking we qualify in men’s eight and men’s single sculls. 
 
Sailing (+1) - ICLA 7 quota through the Final Qualification Regatta. 
 
Shooting (+1) - Not exactly sure in which event, but I do think one of our shooters can secure a quota through a Pan American Olympic Qualifier. Lindsay Boddez in women’s trap seems the most likely, but there’s a bunch of events where we’re on the outside looking in (just as easily could fail to win a quota) so I’m not too sure. 
 
Boxing (+2) - Way too pessimistic here, Cavanaugh and Delgado have good chances. 
 
Tennis (+?) - Not exactly sure how many athletes we’ll qualify, but 3 sounds pretty bleak, even with the state of Canadian tennis at the moment. Andresscu, Shapo, Raonic, Marino all have chances. 

Here are my team size predictions as of today, will post Athletics and Swimming separately 
 
Archery, 2:
1 M + 1F (one male already qualified, expecting a female qualifier. Would love if the men's team could qualify as well. 
 
Artistic Swimming, 8:
8F (already qualified)
 
Badminton, 7:
4 M + 3 F (MS, WS and MD should be safe, the other two are not in qualifying position, but I expect them to qualify. Note: Josephine Wu would qualify in two events)
 
Basketball, 28:
12 M + 16 W (The traditional 5 a side teams have qualified and it would be a major shock if the women's 3x3 team did not qualify. The men have a longshot chance to qualify too.
 
Boxing, 2:
1 M + 1 W Sanford and Thibeault have already qualified and I cannot foresee anyone qualifying. 

Breaking, 2:
1 M + 1 W Philip Kim has already qualified, and I expect one of the two women in the rankings to join him.
 
Canoeing, 16:
7M + 9 W Right now in Sprint, we have 12 quotas (4 in MK, 5 in WK, and 3 in WC). I suspect we will likely qualify the C2 boat (with Connor Fitzpatrick  in it) I also think our K-1 1000 athlete should qualify. Realistically getting the additional quota in MK and WK is unlikely (and probably not necessary. So 15 in  Canoe Sprint (7 men and 8 women). For canoe slalom, using the 2023 PAG as a basis for results, Canada would likely only qualify the women's C-1 boat.
 
Cycling, 25:
12M + 13 W In BMX race one woman should qualify, with an outside chance in men's freestyle. Road Cycling: 4 athletes (2 per gender have already qualified). Mountain biking: 1 per gender should qualify (unlikely to get to 2). In track I am expecting a full qualification of 14 athletes (7 per gender), although this is looking bleak atm.
 
Diving, 5:
2 M + 3 W: What a disaster the team had worlds, this will be one of the smallest (if not the smallest) team we have sent.
 
Equestrian, 9:
Already qualified max team size.
 
Fencing, 12:
7M + 5 W MF, MS and WF teams should qualify. Expecting 12 athletes for now, with the three aforementioned teams and one qualifier in the other three weapons.
 
Football (soccer), 18:
The women have already qualified
 
Golf, 4:
2M + 2 W As per tradition, Canada always qualifies 2 men and 2 women.
 
Gymnastics, 12:
6M + 6W. Both artistic teams and one quota in women's trampoline have been secured. I think Remi Aubin will sneak in and grab a male  trampoline quota.
 
Judo, 7:
5M + 2 W: Right now quota tracker has 4 M and 2 W qualifying. However, I expect Julien Frascadore to get into a direct quota, bringing it up to 7
 
Rowing, 30: 
11M + 19 W: Canada has 11 women's quotas right now.
 
Boats that did not qualify and competed at Worlds: M8, MP, MQS, M1 (I think Trevor Jones will rebound and the M8 should qualify)
 
WQS: Finished 10th (9 boats qualify)
WDS: Finished 15th (13 boats qualify) 
WP: Finished 18th (13 boats qualify)
WF: Finished 10th (9 boats qualify)
 
Out of those 4, gonna be risky and say both fours boats will qualify,
 
Rugby sevens, 12:
12 W, Cannot see the men qualifying, but on any given day they can surprise.
 
Sailing 6:
2 M and 4 W Canada has 4 boats and 6 sailors qualified. I cannot see any other boats qualifying, though its certainly possible.
 
Shooting 2:
1 M and 1 W quota already secured. Although there have been some promising results, the chances of additional quotas remain low
 
Skateboarding 4: 
3 M and 1 W. 4 athletes are currently in qualifying position. No one else is near qualifying. 

Sport climbing 0:
Going to say no one qualifies (but not really familiar here).
 
Surfing 3:
1 M 2 W. Expecting Olin to maintain her qualifying spot, and Young and Brooks to join her.
 
Table tennis 4:
3 M 1 W: The men's team has already qualified and I expect Zhang Mo to join them.
 
Taekwondo 1:
1 W: Skylar Park has already qualified and I don't think anyone else will join here.

Tennis 3:
1M 2W. One of the harder sports to predict. Expecting LAF and FAA to qualify in singles, with Dabrowski qualifying in doubles (with LAF).

Triathlon 4:
2 M 2 W. Currently projected to qualify 4 athletes, unlikely to qualify anymore.
 
Volleyball 28:
14 M 14 W. Men's indoor team has qualified. The women have the momentum, and I think they will qualify as well. I also expect a men's beach pair to join Humana-Parades/Wilkerson through the NORCECA continental cup.

Water polo 12:
12 W: The women's team has already qualified.
 
Weightlifting 2:
1 M 1 W. Boady Santavy and Maude Charron should qualify. Its possible another athlete qualifies through reallocations.
 
Wrestling 6:
2M 4 W. Going with a conservative number here. I think we will qualify the two heaviest weights in men's and four women's categories (the ones missing out being 50 and 57 kg).
 
So the team without Athletics and Swimming = 274

2017!?

Women’s team is through to their second semifinal of the season (first was Dubai) after defeating United States 12-10 at the HSBC Vancouver SVNS! First time since 2017 that they’ve made it this far at a home tournament!

Indoor races 200m and above* count towards the OQS, and it’s on the World Athletics calendar, so I would assume so. 
 
@intoronto Meant above, not below. 

Christopher Morales Williams just broke the WORLD RECORD in the 400m indoor event