Sub13
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Posts posted by Sub13
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11 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:
Number of top 8 finishes after day 5:
Men:
12
11
9
8
7
7
7
6
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Women:
18
13
8
7
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
Overall:
30
22
15
14
12
12
10
10
9
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
How can USA women have 18 in the top 8 when there have only been 8 individual events and relay, meaning 17 would be the maximum possible?
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2 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:
Now he will look stupid if he doesn’t make the podium. Will he be part of the mixed medley relay alongside Shayna Jack?
Australia has 2 significantly faster 100 breaststrokers so very unlikely he’ll be in any relays
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4 hours ago, De_Gambassi said:
Smart ass that much, right ? The 'majority of the world' couldn't give a single fuck about the depth of an olympic swimming pool, only armchair experts that wake up two days before the Oympics do (well, pretend to do), but it is of zero importance obviously. It was not like it was a kept secret that would have been magically revealed right before the Olympics. IOC, FINA, national federations perfectly knew about the depth of the pool for years, and none of them ever complained about it, specialy as it was in line with the then regulations.
Dude what is your problem? You're being SO DEFENSIVE for no reason.
It's a topic of conversation now because swimmers have complained about it now. You posted one article in French as if that was some "proof" that the entire world knew 4 years ago about the pool depth and suddenly just started talking about it as a conspiracy to undermine the Games or something.Yes, it meets the minimum standards, but no, it is not the ideal standard for a competition pool. Some swimmers aren't happy about it. That's just factual. Chill.
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2 hours ago, De_Gambassi said:
Strangely enough, I don't think the majority of the world reads 'Sportetsociete' regularly. Is there evidence it was reported in any other countries?
- Olympicsnell and Josh
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5 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:
Relay Power Rankings: Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay
Other Power Rankings:
Women's 4x100m Freestyle Relay
Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay
Last rankings and we end with the most chaotic relay of them all, the mixed medley relay! Collecting the data was both fun and annoying. Funner for the bigger nations to see what their best combination cold be but a bit annoying for the smaller nations because then you have to take into account that certain relay only swimmers must swim this relay and that some other swimmers that would be part of the ideal combination weren't selected. Anyways, let's begin. Just for fun, let's see the splits between men and women for each stroke.
Backstroke: 7 men, 9 women
Breaststroke: 15 men, 1 woman
Butterfly: 7 men, 9 women
Freestyle: 3 men, 13 women
The men are highlighted in blue, the women are highlighted in pink.
16.
Brazil - 3:47.81
- Backstroke: Guilherme Basseto - 54.14
- Breaststroke: Ana Vieira - 1:08.92
- Butterfly: Kayky Mota - 52.20
- Freestyle: Stephanie Balduccini - 54.05
The one team that's projected to use a female breaststroker and that makes Brazil the slowest team in these power rankings. Vieira is both a freestyler and breaststroker so Brazil chose her to save a relay quota. Basseto is also required to swim on this relay. No female butterflyer was selected which means that Mota automatically slides into the butterfly role and Balduccini into the freestyle role. With this combination, there are no particular standout legs.
15.
Greece - 3:47.07
- Backstroke: Theodora Drakou - 1:01.47
- Breaststroke: Evangelos Ntoumas - 1:00.66
- Buttterfly: Anna Ntountounaki - 57.62
- Freestyle: Apostolos Christou - 48.82
Greece only has 3 women on the team, 2 of which are butterflyers so that makes it easy to select the team. Weird not seeing Christou on the backstroke leg.
14.
Sweden - 3:46.80
- Backstroke: Louise Hansson - 59.93
- Breaststroke: Erik Persson - 1:01.47
- Butterfly: Sara Junevik - 58.06
- Freestyle: Bjoern Seeliger - 48.84
There are only Swedish men selected for freestyle and breaststroke so that once again made it easy to determined the order. Again, Sarah Sjoestroem hasn't swum a 100m butterfly this year so she doesn't slot into that role here but it's not even guaranteed that she swims this relay considering the fact that Sweden are unlikely to be competitive and that Junevik needs to swim on a relay. In fact, Hansson might not even swim and they'll just use Rosvall instead, saving their big weapons for the women's medley relay.
13.
South Korea - 3:45.07
- Backstroke: Lee Juho - 53.81
- Breaststroke: Choi Dongyeol - 59.74
- Butterfly: Kim Seoyeong - 58.29
- Freestyle: Hur Yeonkyung - 54.73
Hur Yeonkyung needs to swim this relay. Otherwise, the ideal combination would be to have Hwang Sunwoo at freestyle and Lee Eunji on the backstroke leg. Either way, this relay will likely not make it to the final.
12.
Israel - 3:44.85
- Backstroke: Anastasia Gorbenko - 59.44
- Breaststroke: Ron Polonsky - 1:00.07
- Butterfly: Gal Groumi - 51.94
- Freestyle: Andrea Murez - 54.90
Anastasia Gorbenko is the top ranked female Israeli in backstroke, breaststroke, and freestyle and the top ranked butterflyer that's on the Olympic Team. However, Murez is required to swim this relay. Comparing the other 3 legs, Gorbenko is best used on the backstroke here.
After this, there's a big gap in the projected time and I could see any of the 11 teams below making the final.
11.
Poland - 3:42.86
- Backstroke: Adela Piskorska - 59.79
- Breaststroke: Jan Kalusowski - 59.58
- Butterfly: Jakub Majerski - 50.98
- Freestyle: Kornelia Fiedkiewicz - 54.01
Jakub Majerski is the big name to watch on this relay as one of 13 swimmers to go under 51 seconds in the 100m butterfly this year. Adela Piskorska and Jan Kalusowski should also be decent on their legs.
10.
Japan - 3:42.13
- Backstroke: Riku Matsuyama - 53.72
- Breaststroke: Taku Taniguchi - 59.43
- Butterfly: Mizuki Hirai - 56.33
- Freestyle: Rikako Ikee - 54.15
Japan will be one of 5 teams entered that will likely front load their relay with men. While Matsuyama and Taniguchi are far from the best in their strokes, they both have gone under the OQT this year which should help get some calm water for the junior butterfly standout Mizuki Hirai. That could be dangerous for other teams.
9.
Italy - 3:41.46
- Backstroke: Thomas Ceccon - 52.43
- Breaststroke: Nicolo Martinenghi - 58.84
- Butterfly: Costanza Cocconcelli - 57.77
- Freestyle: Sofia Morini - 53.92
Like in the years before, Italy has the elite men in this relay to challenge for a medal but not the elite women. Expect them to be in the top 3 at the halfway point but then slowly be caught up by the stronger teams above them in these rankings.
8.
Germany - 3:41.15
- Backstroke: Ole Braunschweig - 53.48
- Breaststroke: Melvin Imoudu - 53.84
- Butterfly: Angelina Koehler - 56.11
- Freestyle: Nina Holt - 54.22
The two standout legs here are the breaststroke and butterfly. Melvin Imoudu has been quietly having a career year going under 59 seconds for the first time in his career to rank 7th in the world. Angelina Koehler has also had a great year winning gold at the 2024 World Championships to rank 4th in the world this year. Like with Japan, the two guys could help get her some calm water.
You will notice that the top 7 nations all have one thing in common: Either an elite or good women's 100m freestyler.
7.
Canada - 3:40.82
- Backstroke: Kylie Masse - 57.94
- Breaststroke: Finlay Knox - 1:00.66
- Butterfly: Josh Liendo - 50.06
- Freestyle: Penny Oleksiak - 53.66
The backstroke and butterfly legs are elite, the freestyle leg is decent (but has the potential to drop more time) but as always with Canadian medleys, the breaststroke is the biggest weakness. However, as mentioned in the men's medley relay preview, Finlay Knox is having a career year and has toe ability to drop some more time.
6.
France - 3:40.55
- Backstroke: Emma Terebo - 58.79
- Breaststroke: Leon Marchand - 59.06
- Butterfly: Maxime Grousset - 50.59
- Freestyle: Marie Wattel - 53.61
This is a good French relay. They'll have their two best swimmers in the middle with Marchand and Grousset. The former of which has made significant progress in the sprint breaststroke this year and the latter is one of the best sprint butterflyer in the world. On the women's side, Emma Terebo set the French National Record in the women's 100m backstroke this year and Marie Wattel's time equals the nuclear women's 100m freestyle OQT.
5.
Netherlands - 3:40.53
- Backstroke: Kira Toussaint - 1:00.00
- Breaststroke: Arno Kamminga - 58.87
- Butterfly: Nyls Korstanje - 50.90
- Freestyle: Marrit Steenbergen - 52.26
This is the best chance for the Dutch team to win a relay medal and the potential is definitely there. The breaststroke, butterfly, and freestyle legs are all elite but like with the women's medley relay, backstroke will be the key. If Toussaint can get get closer to her 58.65 PB, it'll be a big boost. Kamminga has also been as quicker on the breaststroke leg before.
4.
Great Britain - 3:40.15
- Backstroke: Ollie Morgan - 52.70
- Breaststroke: Adam Peaty - 57.94
- Butterfly: Keanna MacInnes - 57.92
- Freestyle: Anna Hopkin - 53.09
The men's side is locked in. Ollie Morgan has ascended as a potential medal contender in the men's 100m backstroke and Adam Peaty looks like he's returning to his old form. On freestyle, Anna Hopkin has looked the best she's had since the Tokyo Olympics. Butterfly is the weak leg here and we'll see if Keanna MacInnes can drop more time from her 57.92 PB this year.
3.
China - 3:38.17
- Backstroke: Xu Jiayu - 52.39
- Breaststroke: Qin Haiyang - 58.24
- Butterfly: Zhang Yufei - 56.36
- Freestyle: Yang Junxuan - 52.68
Though China would for sure be in the top 2 Xu, Qin, and Zhang are all capable of going much quicker than their best times this year. Even despite that, those are still elite times that they've put up. Meanwhile, Yang Junxuan has gone a PB of 52.68 to rank 8th in the world this year to help ease the doubt of what was considered China's weak leg. That means that all 4 of their swimmers are ranked top 10 in the world this year in their respective strokes.
2.
Australia - 3:37.58
- Backstroke: Kaylee McKeown - 57.41
- Breaststroke: Sam Williamson - 58.60
- Butterfly: Matthew Temple - 50.60
- Freestyle: Mollie O'Callaghan - 52.27
Breaststroke has been Australia's weakest leg for a while but thanks to the breakout of Sam Williamson, the breaststroke issue seems to have been solved and has moved Australia into 2nd in these rankings. The weak leg might now be butterfly. After going 50.25 at the Japan Open in December, and 50.61 at the NSW Championships in March, Temple was underwhelming at Australian Trials only going 51.15. We'll have to see what kind of form he is at the Olympics. Kaylee McKeown and Mollie O'Callaghan should need no introduction on this forum.
1.
United States - 3:36.46
- Backstroke: Regan Smith - 57.13
- Breaststroke: Nic Fink - 58.57
- Butterfly: Gretchen Walsh - 55.18
- Freestyle: Jack Alexy - 47.08
For over a year now, fans have thought it would be two way race between China and the US for gold but the US has gained some separation thanks to a monster WR performance by Gretchen Walsh in the women's 100m butterfly. If she's in that kind of form in Paris, it's hard to see the US losing. The other leg which could maybe be a problem is the breaststroke leg. There's the potential for Qin and maybe Williamson (if Fink is off form) to gain some ground on him. It's also interesting to see that the US is one of 3 teams who's ideal quartet is a male freestyler. If that's the case, Alexy (or Guiliano) may touch in around 5th place only to chase down all the female freestylers on the final leg.
I feel like this overrates USA and underrates China. Fink is much slower than he was in Doha, while Xu, Qin and Zhang have had no reason to swim fast yet this year. I'm also not convinced that Gretchen Walsh can repeat her time, and Regan will be slower in the men's wash.
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17 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:
Expected medal table (individual events only) according to the entry times:
Men:
: 4/1/0
: 2/3/4
: 2/2/1
: 2/2/0
: 1/1/1
: 1/1/0
: 1/1/0
: 1/0/0
: 0/2/1
: 0/1/1
: 0/0/2
: 0/0/1
: 0/0/1
: 0/0/1
: 0/0/1
Number of nations: 15
Women:
: 6/4/3
: 3/3/5
: 2/2/1
: 1/1/2
: 1/0/1
: 1/0/1
: 0/1/0
: 0/1/0
: 0/1/0
: 0/1/0
: 0/0/1
Number of nations: 11
Men + Women:
: 8/7/7
: 5/5/6
: 5/2/2
: 3/2/1
: 2/2/0
: 1/1/1
: 1/1/0
: 1/1/0
: 1/0/1
: 1/0/1
: 0/2/1
: 0/1/1
: 0/1/1
: 0/1/0
: 0/1/0
: 0/1/0
: 0/0/2
: 0/0/1
: 0/0/1
: 0/0/1
: 0/0/1
Number of nations: 21
Nations that are expected to win at least one individual medal on both sides:
Only issue with this is that some swimmers are inexplicably not entered with their best times. McKeown entered the 2IM with her time from Nationals and not Trials. Her trials time would have made her top seed but instead she is second seed, so really AUS should be +1 gold and USA -1
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This thread died again so here’s a fun hypothetical:
Mollie wins gold in the 100 free. Arnie wins it in the 400 and 800 free (obviously these events aren’t in order but bear with me). Who do you want to win the 200 free?
Arnie - If Arnie does it she gets a legendary triple, as well as cementing the double double and putting herself in the top 3 women all time for individual Olympic medals, and overall medallists.
Mollie - If Mollie does it she is the first woman not from East Germany to do the 100-200 double at the Olympics, and quite possibly ends the meet with 4 gold medals, which would catapult her to 3rd all time in Olympic medals for women.
Would you prefer Arnie cements herself as a legend, or Mollie throws her name in the legend hat for the first time?
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On the first night of Fukuoka I commented that if we won 4/4 golds (not counting the men’s 400IM which we were never winning) we would top the medal table and we did.
I agree the first night will tell us a lot, and here are my predictions:
4/4 gold - Not possible but we are 100% topping the tally
3/4 gold and USA doesn’t win the 4th - we are topping the tally
3/4 gold and USA wins the 4th - we have a strong chance but it’ll be close
2/4 gold - small chance of topping the tally but unlikely
0-1 gold - whole meet is cooked
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Ok this topic has died a little. So let’s do a little fun analysis.
For the first time since Melbourne it looks like we have a chance at topping the swimming medal table. USA seems like the only other team capable (maybe China but USA and AUS would both need to fall apart). This will hinge heavily on 3 key swimmers:
1. Kaylee McKeown: Has a gold chance in 100 back, 200 back and 200IM. The second favourite in these events are all Americans (Smith, Smith, Douglass). So if Kaylee wins all 3 that’s +3 to AUS, and if she loses all 3 it’s likely +3 to USA, which is a massive 6 gold swing.
2. Sam Short: Short looked like the favourite for the 400 and likely favourite for the 800 before he got sick and was off form at trials. The 400 won’t be won by an American but the 800 likely goes to Finke if not Short. So Short can get +2 to AUS, or possibly +1 to USA, so a potential 3 gold swing.
3. Ariarne Titmus: Titmus has a chance in the 200 free. Second favourite is MOC so if Titmus loses MOC should win, and if both lose then an American won’t win. Titmus is favourite in the 400, and it’s possible but quite unlikely American Ledecky wins if Titmus doesn’t. Ledecky is the favourite in the 800, but Titmus has a very outside chance. If Titmus (or Titmus + MOC) wins all 3 that’s a +3 to AUS, or possibly a +2 to USA if she loses them all, making a 5 medal swing.
So overall, these 3 swimmers represent a best case scenario of +8 to AUS or a worst case scenario of +6 to USA, a 14 gold medal swing. We can pretty confidently say if we get 0/8 there is no possibility we top the medal table (and likely aren’t in the top 3), but if we win all 8 then that alone might be enough. Add strong potential in W100 free, 100 free relay and 200 free relay, and if these three can all pull off all their swims we will likely win.
Now just to be clear it is extremely unlikely we convert all 8 of these (both 800s are especially unlikely) but hey it’s fun to dream haha
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1 hour ago, Pasolini said:
What do you girls and guys think about Universality athletes being the same from previous Universality quotas?
I get it that sometimes they get their first quota while up-and-coming and maybe are at their career peak at 2nd or 3rd cycle.And OBVIOUSLY they deserved their quotas being the best from the countries.
But at the same time I feel like it would be good for the development of the sport in the country if other athletes get it (specially regarding tripartite choices).
Perhaps it could have a 'ladder', like if they have been to an Olympic before (or 2) they have at least to reach an OCT or not have a second swimmer with 90% of their points or something like this.
I think it should be one and done. Each country literally gets one every 4 years, and sending the same swimmer who still doesn’t have an OCT 3 Games in a row is not helping promote swimming
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5 hours ago, Cinnamon Bun said:
Ok cheers. I think it's best I leave the list as it is as it'll get clogged up with swimmers who'll most likely won't qualify as an OCT. But I'm glad you told me this as not only is it less work for me to do but I now know that only
James Guy can compete for us in the 100m Fly instead of Joe Litchfield who I originally thought would do so.
My understanding (as discussed on SwimSwam a while ago) is that relay only athletes cannot enter any events unless they are invited with an OCT. Just because a relay only athlete has an OCT doesn’t automatically mean they are allowed to enter the individual event.
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18 hours ago, dantm said:
SOPAC is nearly 30 years old but its still a fantastic pool.
it was designed based on those parameters from that article.
Definitely wouldve been a better option than Chandler.
It was fun having them in Chandler and ultimately trials is about qualifying, so slower pool isn’t a bad thing for those who qualified. The people it hurts is those who just missed the QT
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21 hours ago, Cinnamon Bun said:
No you are right, the way you interpret it is correct. By the way since your new here, feel free to correct me whenever I've said or interpreted something factually wrong. I'm not very good at interpreting things and often do so wrong.
Haha no all good! I don’t make a habit of correcting people but yeah I was pretty sure I was right on this one
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5 hours ago, dantm said:
Most of the men at trials didn't seem rested enough. Temple only recently went 50 low and there is no reason he cannot replicate in Paris.
The double taper with Trials/Worlds/Olympics has been in place since 2019 and it seems like it has worked in Australia's favour.
Ive got no doubt that Australia will step up again in Paris!
I just hope Europe and Asia do as well to keep the Americans at bay
There is part of me that believes we swam
in a very slow pool (women’s 200 free was really the only event faster than expected, maybe Kaylee 2IM) and weren’t fully rested, so maybe we’ll improve heaps in Paris. There’s also part of me that thinks I might be delusional. Surely none of the sprint free boys would risk not being tapered in such a close field.
However, that did kind of happen in Fukuoka so who knows.
It would be so funny if all our swimmers who said “oh I’m really not happy with that time” and acted all sullen at trials all just went massive PBs in Paris. Like an orchestrated trolling.
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5 hours ago, Cinnamon Bun said:
That's not the case. In point 2 of the OCT section of this document https://www.worldaquatics.com/competitions/paris-2024-swimming-info it states that any athlete who has achieved an OCT but also an OQT in another event will have their place reallocated to the next fastest OCT in that athletes OCT event.
The only exception I believe to the OQT and OCT rules is that an athlete who has achieved an OCT time can enter an event that their NOC already has 1 or 2 OQT for if said NOC rejects all OQT places achieved. E.g.
Joe Litchfield will be able to compete in the Men's 100m Fly in Paris despite not having the OQT because will reject Peters and Gammon's OQT quotas before the OCT and universality quotas are awarded.
I feel like this was kind of already answered by someone else but that’s not right. Point 2 says their PLACE will be reallocated (they don’t need a place because are already entered with their OQT), but then point 10 applies which allows them to enter 1 event with an OCT.
Your interpretation doesn’t make sense because that would mean point 10 can’t possibly ever apply to anyone.
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20 minutes ago, maestro said:
A swimmer has an OQT in event A and an OCT in event B.
There isn't anyone with an OQT from that NOC in event B.
Is that swimmer allowed to start in both events?
My answer would be certainly not, but apparently our federation thinks they are.
Yea that’s right, you can. If a swimmer has an A cut they are allowed to enter one other event with a B cut if their nation doesn’t already have an entry
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3 hours ago, dantm said:
Our mixed medley team looks strong and on times,its very close to US
Kaylee
Sam
Temple
MOC
If MOC is in touch when she jumps in,its game on.
This is true but Temple looked terrible at trials, he’ll have a double with the 100 fly and Kaylee will have a double with the 2IM. Chinese team will be fully fresh. Would say outside chance of gold at best
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8 minutes ago, Dkats said:
I think with Kaylee it’s probably smart heading in to assume that she doesn't win least 1 of her backstroke events to smith, probably 100.
If she just goes on to successfully defend both that would honestly be crazy as with Aus only a few swimmers have ever done that.At this games she could become our greatest ever swimmer if she wins all 3 events
I’m hoping for it but I’ll be shocked if Kaylee wins all 3. She is the solid favourite in the 200 back but the other 2 are toss ups at best
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1 hour ago, dantm said:
Based on my predictions for Swimming,Ive got the US at 8 Gold.
W 100m Backstroke -Regan Smith.
This is 50/50 and could well go to Kaylee.Ive only got Smith ahead as she just broke the WR
M 100m Butterfly -Caeleb Dressel
Dressel for the Gold,but this event is stacked with 5-6 guys around the same time.
W 800m Butterfly -Gretchen Walsh
This one is solid for the USA who could easily go 1-2
W 800m/1500m Freestyle
Katie Ledecky -Nothing more to be said
M 1500m Freestyle -Bobby Finke
Without Hafanoui ,Finke is the favourite here
M 4x 100m Freestyle
USA will take down the WR here.Heavy favourites
W 4 x 100m Medley Relay
USA Women's have 3 of the WR holders in this (Smith,King and Walsh)
USA Men's Breastroke is currently worse than Australia and they will likely struggle against the Chinese in the Medley Relay
GB look too good for Mens 4 x 200m Free relay.
I love this but it also seems very optimistic. Dressel and Smith are the only events that aren’t heavy favourites that you’ve given gold to. M800 free, M100 back, M200 back, Men’s medley, W200 fly, W200 breast, W200 back, W200IM and mixed medley are all possibilities. I find it hard to believe they’ll convert 0 of those
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Who's Online 16 Members, 0 Anonymous, 321 Guests (See full list)
Swimming at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024
in Swimming
Posted
USA is the obvious choice. Australia has 1 very strong chance left (Kaylee 200 back), 1 solid chance (McEvoy 50 free), 1 toss up (Kaylee 200IM) and a few outside chances (Mixed medley, Titmus 800, Temple??).
USA has probably 8 solid chances left with 3 of them being heavy favourites.
So while Australia is possible it will basically take a miracle. We need to convert every single chance and hope USA gets upset in a heavy favourite