dcro 10,172 Posted December 13, 2019 #551 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Athletics qualification ALWAYS ends up with more athletes than there should have been. It's kind of sad that some Twitter expert doesn't know about that. #banbestmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,504 Posted December 14, 2019 #552 Share Posted December 14, 2019 (edited) On 12/12/2019 at 14:50, JoshMartini007 said: For anyone interested, here's what my prediction model suggests on medal chances for each event in athletics. I may have to change to a hybrid model for long distance (5000m, 10000m, walks and marathon) events as quite often the pace/strategy is different in each race. The low number of competitions for some athletes caused a couple of weird results so hopefully they continue to compete in 2020. Below are the athletes with a greater than 50% chance at winning the gold medal in an event. Caster Semenya - Women's 800m - 99.21% Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Women's Heptathlon - 81.91% Still there's no way in hell I'd put any money on KJT winning on odds that reflect these percentages About Semenya: I guess that's not taking into account the whole CAS/whatever thing? It's a nice way to show how someone's best results only don't always mean that much, especially the 100m is a good example: Divine Oduduru was fast as hell in the college races, but very disappointing when it got overseas, international and actually big. Based on those fast college times (like so many college sprinters) he gets a very high chance of winning the gold, even though in reality this chance is probably way, way lower. Edited December 14, 2019 by heywoodu If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,131 Posted December 14, 2019 #553 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6 hours ago, heywoodu said: Still there's no way in hell I'd put any money on KJT winning on odds that reflect these percentages Yeah, the lack of competitions in heptathlon hurts the model. In the end KJT had two out of the three top performances of the year with only Thiam being anywhere close so I'm not surprised she ended up with such a high chance. 6 hours ago, heywoodu said: About Semenya: I guess that's not taking into account the whole CAS/whatever thing? Obviously not, I'll probably remove those performances when(if?) she competes or she gets dropped due to not participating at the Olympics. 7 hours ago, heywoodu said: It's a nice way to show how someone's best results only don't always mean that much, especially the 100m is a good example: Divine Oduduru was fast as hell in the college races, but very disappointing when it got overseas, international and actually big. Based on those fast college times (like so many college sprinters) he gets a very high chance of winning the gold, even though in reality this chance is probably way, way lower. Yeah, currently I don't take competition importance into account as it can be quite subjective. Basically, the model acknowledges he can theoretically achieve those results and thus gives him a decent chance. We'll see what 2020 brings him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumo 2,791 Posted December 14, 2019 #554 Share Posted December 14, 2019 (edited) Update - Week 50 - December 9 to December 15 - 2019 Men's 10,000m +1 https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/stewart-mcsweyn-277902 Qualified Quotas Overview Men (Total Quota: 463) Women (Total Quota: 451) Stewart McSweyn has now achieved the Olympic Standard in the 1500m, 5000m and 10,000m. Edited January 10, 2020 by Wumo Olympian1010 and rybak 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shravan Kumar 109 Posted January 7, 2020 #555 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Guys is there any website which updates Olympic qualification rankings for Athletics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agger 1,576 Posted January 7, 2020 #556 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Shravan Kumar said: Guys is there any website which updates Olympic qualification rankings for Athletics. @Johne has a nice tracker: https://bluecattechnical.shinyapps.io/RoadtoTokyo/ And the official rankings: https://www.worldathletics.org/world-rankings/100m/men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumo 2,791 Posted January 19, 2020 #557 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) Update - Week 3 - January 13 to January 19 - 2020 Men's High Jump +1 https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/darryl-sullivan-309585 Men's Marathon +1 (Achieved via a Top 5 result in a Gold Label race) https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/ireland/stephen-scullion-223786 Women's Marathon +1 (Achieved via a Top 5 result in a Gold Label race) https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/azerbaijan/marege-hayelom-274423 Qualified Quotas Overview Men (Total Quota: 465) Women (Total Quota: 452) After some quiet weeks, we can finally add some more athletes to the list of qualifed athletes for Tokyo 2020. In the women's marathon in Houston, Ursula Sanchez was really close to achieve the Olympic Standard with a 6th place and a time of 2:29:32. Only 2 seconds shy of the Olympic Standard! https://track.rtrt.me/e/HOU-2020#/leaderboard/top-women-marathon-_ALL/FINISH Edited January 23, 2020 by Wumo AlFHg, Johne, mrv86 and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wumo 2,791 Posted January 23, 2020 #558 Share Posted January 23, 2020 (edited) @Johne I have a question. Does your Road-To-Tokyo tool take indoor performances into account? I'm asking because it seems high jumper Darryl Sullivan's jump of 2.33m doesn't appear on your list from this week's update. https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/darryl-sullivan-309585 Edited January 23, 2020 by Wumo Johne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ionoutz24 114 Posted January 24, 2020 #559 Share Posted January 24, 2020 On 23/01/2020 at 18:29, Wumo said: @Johne I have a question. Does your Road-To-Tokyo tool take indoor performances into account? I'm asking because it seems high jumper Darryl Sullivan's jump of 2.33m doesn't appear on your list from this week's update. https://www.worldathletics.org/athletes/united-states/darryl-sullivan-309585 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics_–_Qualification Check this Wumo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gianlu33 3,546 Posted January 24, 2020 #560 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Fabbri - Shot put (21.23m) Wumo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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