nitinsanker 179 Posted October 20, 2018 #7431 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 19/10/2018 at 07:16, kapil857 said: Just some counterpoints "Please show me any country which dominates senior world championships/ olympics in a sport who does not do well at the junior level in that sport" I have not done any analysis but my first guess here would be USA. Does MUCH better in senior events than junior events, just from what it seems to me. Of course, this doesn't mean they have no junior champs. But in terms of volume and frequency of achievements, especially when compared with other sporting powers, USA wud be found lagging in juniors. I think one of the reasons for that is their inter-collegiate program is excellent. So many stars are discovered only in college, as opposed to in high school. Another prominent example would be Australia. I wud even venture a guess that many European countries, led by UK, wud also follow that template - senior performance better than junior is terms of volume and frequency. "so every junior player may not become a good senior player but almost every great senior player was a great junior player" Not exactly. I'd say every great senior player was at least a "good" junior player. And when u change that distinction, the pool becomes much wider and u dont really know who wud go on to become big. One of the examples I have heard is of Roger Federer. In the juniors, Federer was doubles partner to a guy named Oliver Rochus. Between the two, Rochus was generally considered the far more talented and many people, including Federer's own coach, used to laugh at Federer when he dreamt of becoming the best in the world. Well, we all know how that played out... Another example is our own Srikanth. OGQ had picked Praneeth over him to support when they were young, but they were proved wrong. Viren has even sort of said that it was a mistake but there's no way to avoid it, as Praneeth was much better in the junior days. For me, a far better metric would be when someone graduated to the seniors. Manu Bhaker for eg doesn't have too many junior achievements to show before already being big in seniors. She just waltzed into the senior team at the beginning of the year from nowhere. Hima Das was already India's senior best when she won the U20 world champs. And just abt a year before, she was trying to become a sprinter. A couple of years earlier, she wasn't even into athletics. "shooting unfortunately the junior championships were not regularly conducted till recently " Well that is just not true. They have been conducted since 1994. We won our first junior gold through Navanath Faratade in 2006. Based on a recent interview of him, by around 2008, he was nowhere near national reckoning and essentially quit professional shooting soon after that (though he goes to the annual nationals till today). "so from the crop of great junior players over a 5-6 competitions you would get 1 great senior level player especially in sports like wrestling or boxing" Yes that is probably the more likely conversion rate. Unfortunately doesn't add up to "I believe in statistics if we have 20-24 medals today 5-6 years from today we will have at least 12-15 medals at the senior olympics". To provide an extreme analogy, I was recently thinking that winning a junior world title is may be like topping ur 10th standard board exams. It is an absolutely magnificent achievement, but a new guy/girl does it every year. And while many (though definitely not all) of them will have successful fruitful careers, extremely few of those toppers will go on to become the CEO of a large MNC (which is what an olympic medal is). Can we still hit double digits in 2024 ?? Absolutely. But we may even end up like Rio. Its just too far away to pass judgement. Either way, I wud much rather look to senior results for indicators than junior results. And if we are lucky and these next two years go really well, and with Tokyo being very hot during August, I am hoping for at least 6-8 medals in Tokyo itself. Lot will depend on shooting though. quick counter points Just did a quick check on US performance at the Junior level - They do really well at the junior level too .. In the junior swimming they were world number 1 and in junior atheletics no 3 ......not very different from how they are the senior level ...... Look juniors you need to look over 5-10 period .......you would have good performers over this period obviously the pool also expand , let us say you win 25 medals this year and then after 4-5 years another crop of juniors win another 25 medals , your pool of players becomes 50 ( because you have two groups of 25 different juniors ) then in ratio of 5:1 you would still get 10 seniors I think the juniors in shooting may not be ready for the seniors so quickly , it is diffciult to go to your first olympic and win a medal even abhinav had to go through 3 olympics i think before he won a gold...... so i think they may win quotas but medals I doubt ..................... when I said juniors in shooting were not conducted regularly ............................till recently they were conducted every 4 years actually.............................. and it is difficult to measure junior performance by that as if you have a 15 year old in one tournament by the next he may have already gone beyond the age limit and he does not get a chance to perform Of course I agree with one point that finally senior performance matters ,........ and each good junior needs to graduate successfully to the senior level ...........but there may some sudden upsurges at the senior level also ( especially with army shooters coming in not thru the juniors but through army selection . but I think we should be very happy with the recent uptick in junior performance because only then will you get good seniors ..........and that was my thought but these juniors will be ready in only 5-6 years and not 1-2 years barring possibly one or two shooters strength does not come from physical capacity but from an indomitable will. - Gandhi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prashanth 157 Posted October 21, 2018 #7432 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Indians in Action Today UWW Wrestling World Championships FS 61 :- Sonba Tanaji plays in Repachage match 74 :- Jitender lost in Rd32 86 :- Pawan lost in Rd32 125:- Sumit plays in Bronze medal match ATP 250 Tour European Open:- Divj/Artem lost in SF The CJ Cup PGA Nine Bridges - Final Rd T60 S Sharma Buick LPGA Shanghai - Final Rd T48 A Ashok Ladies European Hero Indian Open - Final Rd T11 T Malik T19 G Bishnoi, R Dilawari, FIH Asian Champions Trophy India 3 - 1 Pakistan India Vs Japan ATP Challenger Tour Ningbo :- Prajnesh plays in Finals Wolffkran:- Purav/Antonio play in Finals BWF Denmark Open 2018 WS:- Saina plays in Finals BWF Hellas Open 2018 WD:-Rutaparna/Aaarthi play in Finals MD:- Arjun/Shlok play in Finals XD:- Arjun/ Maneesha play in Finals PSA World Tour Carol Weymuller Open:- Joshna looses in QF Tokyo - 2020 Go India Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prashanth 157 Posted October 21, 2018 #7433 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Indian sports is going ahead until we have good federations. Stronger and better equipped is our federation better the quality of players we will have. else we will have some wonder popping here n there. Tokyo - 2020 Go India Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prashanth 157 Posted October 21, 2018 #7434 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Good to see Saina coming back to form. happy for Srikanth he is back also with good result. Arjun performing well in International Series. Verma brothers popping up here and there. Tokyo - 2020 Go India Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prashanth 157 Posted October 21, 2018 #7435 Share Posted October 21, 2018 UWW Wrestling World Championships FS 61 :- Sonba Tanaji looses in Repachage match Tokyo - 2020 Go India Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prashanth 157 Posted October 21, 2018 #7436 Share Posted October 21, 2018 UWW Wrestling World Championships FS 57 :- Sandeep Tomar moves into R16 Tokyo - 2020 Go India Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prashanth 157 Posted October 21, 2018 #7437 Share Posted October 21, 2018 UWW Wrestling World Championships FS 79 :- Sachin looses in R32 Tokyo - 2020 Go India Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prakash 27 Posted October 21, 2018 #7438 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Saina Nehwal Once Again Fails to Break Tai Tzu Code, Loses Denmark Open Final.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nitinsanker 179 Posted October 21, 2018 #7439 Share Posted October 21, 2018 BAJRANG reaches final of world championships in the 65 Kgs ...... he becomes the first indian to win two medals in the world wrestling championship to join the 2013 bronze he won in the 60kgs strength does not come from physical capacity but from an indomitable will. - Gandhi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapil857 31 Posted October 21, 2018 #7440 Share Posted October 21, 2018 BAJRANG !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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