OlympicsFan 776 Posted July 14, 2016 #31 Share Posted July 14, 2016 vor 34 Minuten schrieb EselTheDonkey: To use heywoodu's system (roughly): Krause: chance 25% Roleder: 25% 4x100m Men: 5% 4x100m Women: 15% Linke: 5% Jungfleisch: 10% Holzdeppe: 10% (hoping, that he finds his shape) Ryzih/Strutz: 5% Moguenara: 20% Heß: 25% Schwanitz: 90% Storl: 65% R. Harting: 70% C. Harting: 20% Müller: 20% Fischer: 25% Craft: 10% Heidler: 55% Stahl: 30% Obergföll: 15% Hussong: 15% Röhler: 65% Vetter: 15% Weber: 10% Schäfer: 20% Kazmirek: 5% Abele: 35% Someone else: 5% makes 715 points = 7 medals Storl, Schwanitz, R.Harting, Roleder, Krause, Holzdeppe, Heß, Fischer, Heidler, Hussong, Röhler, Vetter and Abele all have at least a 50% chance to win a medal in my opinion. Our womens 4x100m relay, Moguenara, C.Harting, Stahl, Weber and Schäfer all have at least a 25% chance to win a medal in my opinion. That adds up to at least 8 medals. Ryzih, Gierisch/Elbe, Linke, Jungfleisch, our mens 4x100m relay, Müller, Tesfaye, Obergföll, Kazmirek and Onnen all have about a 10% chance for a medal, so this would add up to 9 medals at least. 7 medals would be very disappointing in my opinion, in the last 20 years or so we have never been better in athletics. Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EselTheDonkey 623 Posted July 14, 2016 #32 Share Posted July 14, 2016 I gave Holzdeppe much less points than I would have otherwise because of his injury. I agree that Holzdeppe in shape has a much higher chance to win a medal, but sadly he hasn't been fit this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,503 Posted July 14, 2016 #33 Share Posted July 14, 2016 17 minutes ago, EselTheDonkey said: I gave Holzdeppe much less points than I would have otherwise because of his injury. I agree that Holzdeppe in shape has a much higher chance to win a medal, but sadly he hasn't been fit this season. Personally I would put Krause lower than 25%, whereas I think I would put Jungfleisch higher and probably Moguenara as well. To come up with heptathlon/decathlon predictions I usually look at the top-15/20 athletes in both events and see what kind of total they can get based on recent results/perfomances at major championships, so it's hard to say how I'd rate them yet since I haven't done that yet At least you have basically 5 athletes who all have around 50% (or more) chance to win a medal, which is definitely better than us Then again, it's of course not like the Netherlands and Germany have ever been rivals in athletics, I doubt we'll ever come close since we're still just a small nation even though this time we have 2-3 serious medal chances. If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,131 Posted July 14, 2016 #34 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Overall I'm hoping for about 4 medals for Canada. Our performance at the World Champs was an almost best case scenario for Canada and I doubt we'll see it again here (if we do succeed we'll easily meet our target of 19 medals). We have bunch of athletes that will finish in the top 8, hopefully we won't fall into the 4th place curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james89 410 Posted July 14, 2016 #35 Share Posted July 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said: Overall I'm hoping for about 4 medals for Canada. Our performance at the World Champs was an almost best case scenario for Canada and I doubt we'll see it again here (if we do succeed we'll easily meet our target of 19 medals). We have bunch of athletes that will finish in the top 8, hopefully we won't fall into the 4th place curse. Exactly! Generally this Canadian curse also comes from having so much pressure on a couple of athletes that they falter the Olympics. I really do wonder if having more athletes with that potential sees Canada do better overall. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I am expecting 3 medals from Athletics, but the 4-5 range is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,131 Posted July 14, 2016 #36 Share Posted July 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, james89 said: Exactly! Generally this Canadian curse also comes from having so much pressure on a couple of athletes that they falter the Olympics. I really do wonder if having more athletes with that potential sees Canada do better overall. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks. I am expecting 3 medals from Athletics, but the 4-5 range is likely. Athletics is in the second half so if Canada has a good/decent first week it may relax them. The pressure will also be on Brianne to medal in heptathlon (unless we get another surprise medal in the 20km walk), which I hope will settle everyone regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juddy96 171 Posted July 14, 2016 #37 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Just now, JoshMartini007 said: Athletics is in the second half so if Canada has a good/decent first week it may relax them. The pressure will also be on Brianne to medal in heptathlon (unless we get another surprise medal in the 20km walk), which I hope will settle everyone regardless. Well in the last few years our 20km walk national record has switched hands between the three of them and it seems that one is always near the top of the pile. Would be awesome to see one of our trio get an Olympic medal, they are some of the most humble and funny guys on the entirety of Team Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,503 Posted July 14, 2016 #38 Share Posted July 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, juddy96 said: Well in the last few years our 20km walk national record has switched hands between the three of them and it seems that one is always near the top of the pile. Would be awesome to see one of our trio get an Olympic medal, they are some of the most humble and funny guys on the entirety of Team Canada I'd gladly give up a Dutch medal to see Evan Dunfee medal in Rio If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juddy96 171 Posted July 14, 2016 #39 Share Posted July 14, 2016 1 minute ago, heywoodu said: I'd gladly give up a Dutch medal to see Evan Dunfee medal in Rio Well yes it's almost impossible to dislike our race walkers unless you are Russian or Alex Schwazer NearPup and heywoodu 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bestmen 2,537 Posted July 14, 2016 #40 Share Posted July 14, 2016 (edited) Just now, heywoodu said: I'd gladly give up a Dutch medal to see Evan Dunfee medal in Rio your medal becomes bleu , there are many surprises from Sindo Edited July 14, 2016 by bestmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now