How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2019 version)

[thiago_simoes 1,359]

45 minutes ago, IoNuTzZ said:

Well, yeah the hardest part is to qualify for Olympics but I have faith. Golgota, Crisan, Holbura, Ghiciuc, Iordache, Cimpian, Puiu can make it

 

Qualifying a team is definitely not impossible, but very unlikely. It will mostly depend on how Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Brazil, Italy and Japan perform. I would say that at least two of these teams need to have a huge breakdown, and Romania must have a good day, in order for them to qualify. This is, like, a 5% chance. Of course Romania can always surprise, but I'm very skeptical.

[Jinzha 529]

On 01/07/2019 at 15:54, CCB said:

Netherlands. I think (and hope) something like this ...

 

Archery: 1 medal (men’s team)

Athletics: 1 medal (5000 m women)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: -

Canoeing slalom: -

Canoeing sprint: -

Cycling road: 2 medals (women's road race, women's timetrial)

Cycling track: 3 medals (men’s team sprint, men's sprint, women’s omnium)

BMX: 2 medals

Mountainbike: 1 medal (men)

Diving: -

Equestrian: 1 medal (team jumping)

Fencing: -

Field hockey: 1 medal (women's team)

Football: -

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: -

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal (high bar)

Handball: -

Judo: 2 medals (-78 women, +100 men)

Modern pentathlon: -

Rowing: 4 medals (W4-, W4x, LW2-, M4x)

Rugby: -

Sailing: 3 medals (RSX men, RSX women, Laser Radial women)

Shooting: -

Swimming: 1 medal (open water men)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: -

Taekwondo: -

Tennis: -

Triathlon: -

Volleyball: -

Beach volleyball: -

Water polo: 1 medal (women's team)

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: -

Suprise medal: 1

Total: 25 medals

Great predictions for the Netherlands really. I would only add the women's football team as a medal contender. There's also some outside chances for volleyball (w), handball (w) and 3x3 basketball (m). Might be one of the surprise medals, those are always the greatest Olympic moments!

[CCB 445]

1 hour ago, Jinzha said:

Great predictions for the Netherlands really. I would only add the women's football team as a medal contender. There's also some outside chances for volleyball (w), handball (w) and 3x3 basketball (m). Might be one of the surprise medals, those are always the greatest Olympic moments!

Well, volleyball (w) would already be a surprise when they qualify for the Olympics. Italy and Turkey are way better at the moment, so personally I don't think it's gonna happen, but hopefully I'm wrong. 

[Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo 114]

On 01/07/2019 at 20:44, Gianlu33 said:

Archery: 1/2 medals (Nespoli and/or mixed team)

Athletics: 1 medal (Race walk)

Boxing: 0/2 medals

Canoeing slalom: 1 medal (Stefanie Horn)

Cycling road: 1 medal (men's road race)

Cycling track: 3/4 medals

Mountainbike: 0/1 medal (Gerard Kerschbaumer)

Equestrian: 0/1 medal (team jumping or team evenint)

Fencing: 4/5 medals

Golf: 0/1 medal (Molinari)

Rhythmic gymnastics: 1 medal (group event)

Artistic gymnastics: 0/1 medal (Lodadio, Ferrari)

Judo: 0/2 medals 

Rowing: 3/5 medals

Sailing: 0/2 medals

Shooting: 4 medals

Swimming: 4/9 medals

Taekwondo: 0/1 medal (Vito dell'Aquila)

Volleyball: 0/2 medals

Water polo: 2/2 medals

Wrestling: 1 medal

Suprise medal: 3/5

Total: 29
Very very optimist total: 51

 

Gianlu, you forget Karate (3-4 medals), Skateboarding (1 medal), Basket 3x3 (0/1 medal).
I think that 40 medals are possible, but qualifyng cycle is not so good. 
We have out some possible medals (man football), and other possible gold medals in trouble (archery, euqestrian, shhooting).

[Gianlu33 3,572]

25 minutes ago, Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo said:

 

Gianlu, you forget Karate (3-4 medals), Skateboarding (1 medal), Basket 3x3 (0/1 medal).
I think that 40 medals are possible, but qualifyng cycle is not so good. 
We have out some possible medals (man football), and other possible gold medals in trouble (archery, euqestrian, shhooting).

Gio, I put the new sports in the Surprise medal, i don't know why Basket 3x3 is included in basket,that's actually drop from maximum 2 to 1

[OlympicsFan 782]

On 02/07/2019 at 20:53, EselTheDonkey said:

 

I indeed missed Gymnastics in my list. When going through the different sports I simply overlooked it. I do think one or two medals are possible.

 

I added Golf because I generally think that everything is possible in Golf.

 

And IMO it's highly doubtful that Zverev will even play at the Olympics, much less win a medal.

 

In general, I added the number of medals that are IMO realistically possible. Sure, it could be more in some events, but that seems highly unlikely to me. German Shooters were way too bad so far in qualification to add more medal chances.

Turns out you were too negative about german medal chances in swimming ...

Germany won 4 medals and it very well could have been 8 (Men's 800 free, men's 200 IM, women's 200 fly, women's 800 free). Let's see what the athletics world championships will bring. Of course it doesn't help that so many athletes are either injured or out of shape (Heß, Freimuth, Przybylko, Harting, Storl, Dutkiewicz, Gierisch).

[OlympicsFan 782]

Maybe this doesn't belong in this thread, but i think it would be interesting to hear what other people think about which nation will make the biggest improvements compared to 2016 (if we only take events into consideration that were already contested in 2016)? My money is on Japan (obviously), the Netherlands, Australia, Italy and India.

Edited August 11, 2019 by OlympicsFan

[Kaileena 1]

For Poland OG in Tokyo will be the best in XXI century. 

We have really strongs athletes - Anita Włodarczyk, Paweł Fajdek, Wojciech Nowicki, Malwina Kopron, Michał Haratyk, Piotr Lisek, Adam Kszczot, Marcin Lewandowski and 4x400 m women - 10 medals

In sprint canoe - C1 1000 m men (Kaczor) + Walczykiewicz (K1 200 m) + K2 500 m and K4 500 m + maybe Borowska in C1 200 m - 4 oraz 5 medals

In rowing - W4x, M4x, M2x and M4- - 4 medals 

 

 

[Agger 1,591]

6-12 with 8-9 seeming like the most likely.

Sailing, Kayak, cycling (road, track and BMX), swimming, handball, shooting, golf, badminton seems like the most likely sports.

Some small shots in archery, equestrian and MTB, 

[OlympicsFan 782]

2 hours ago, Kaileena said:

For Poland OG in Tokyo will be the best in XXI century. 

We have really strongs athletes - Anita Włodarczyk, Paweł Fajdek, Wojciech Nowicki, Malwina Kopron, Michał Haratyk, Piotr Lisek, Adam Kszczot, Marcin Lewandowski and 4x400 m women - 10 medals

In sprint canoe - C1 1000 m men (Kaczor) + Walczykiewicz (K1 200 m) + K2 500 m and K4 500 m + maybe Borowska in C1 200 m - 4 oraz 5 medals

In rowing - W4x, M4x, M2x and M4- - 4 medals 

 

 

10 medals in athletics? Absolutely don't see that happening. 5-6 medals seems realistic. 2 x men's hammer throw, women's hammer throw, men's pole vault + 2 out of shot put (Walsh, the american guy, Romani are all bigger favorites)/women's hammer throw (the chinese girls, the american girls and Tavernier are all bigger favorites for silver/bronze)/men's 800 (super competitive)/men's 1500 (super competitive)/women's 4 x 400 (USA and Jamaica should be clearly better and GB is pretty much on the same level). 4 medals in rowing also seems rather optimistic, but who knows ... ? Why didn't you mention volleyball, shooting, wrestling or track cycling?