How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2019 version)

[Rafoo 161]

Croatia:

 

Waterpolo- 1(mens) 

Athletics- 2-3 (perković,kolak) 

Boxing - 2-3 (filipi,hrgovic) 

Cycling -0-1 (ranteš, if qualify) 

Gymnastic- 0-1 (srbić,ude) 

Handball - 1 (mens) 

Karate - 1(kvesic)

Rowing - 2(sinković brothers,martin) 

Saling - 1-3 (fantela brothers, stipanovic) 

Shooting 1-3 (many candidates gorsa,maricic, pejcic, glasnovic, cernogoraz(still to qualify)) 

Sport climbing - 0-1 (maybe cujic) 

Taekwando - 1-3(tomic, glasnovic, jelic) 

Tennis - 1 (mens doubles,pavic, mektic, dodig) 

Wrestling - 0-1 (maybe starcevic, janecic) 

 

 

[Vojthas 947]

Archery - no way

Artistic Swimming - look above

Athletics - I gotta feeling, that this Olympics gonna be a good Olympics - 3 medals on a track (Kszczot, Lewandowski, 4x400 women's and mixed - one of them might miss the podium, but not all of them), 3-4 in Hammer Throw (Fajdek&Nowicki + Włodarczyk+Fiodorow or Kopron), men's pole vault and shot put - 2-4 all together, depending on the rivals results (Lisek&Wojciechowski+Haratyk&Bukowiecki) - that brings 8-11 strong medal chance. And still a big hope for gold for Małachowski - he really deserves it for the end of a career, but Ståhl, Dacres and the others won't give it to him for free. And by Tokyo we might rise somebody like a phoenix - I mean mama-Lićwinko or Andrejczyk coming back after an injury. Still hoping for Semenya case to be solved the proper way for women's sport.

Badminton - no kidding

Baseball - not a single chance

Basketball - let's pray for a miracle, I mean the quota

Basketball 3x3 - we'll fight for the men's medal

Beach Volleyball - I don't think so

Boxing - maybe 1 or 2 women (among the medallists from Minsk)

Canoe Slalom - highly doubtable

Canoe Sprint - oh YES: all four women's kayak crews with a big chance (I doubt we'll use all of them), also men's and women's C1. I'd say 3-6 with most bronze.

Cycling - BMX - wait, do we have it in our country?
Cycling - MTB - in Maja we trust (since the beginning of the century) so 1 medal chance (Olympic gold would be a perfect way to finish, if not, she may even wait until Paris)
Cycling - Road - well, Niewiadoma is in the high top, so there is a chance. Also Kwiatkowski or Majka in men's and maybe somebody in men's time trial - 3 chances with one realistic, it can be any color.

Cycling - Track - depends on the roster, but men's madison (Staniszewski-Pszczolarski), men's omnium (Sajnok), women's team pursuit (if they manage to make a progress), men's sprints (team, individual and keirin) - out of these six I think two or three may happen.

Diving - unless other sink - no.

Equestrian - not yet, maybe Spisak on Banderas in Paris. Olympic quota for eventing team is our medal.

Fencing - women's epée individual (Trzebińska) and team.

Field hockey - unfortunately, not possible

Football - as well

Golf - unless we buy somebody - no.

Gymnastics - Artistic - not a medal, but maybe one or two finals will be

Gymnastics - Rhytmic - nope

Gymnastics - Trampoline - nope x2

Handball - "don't speak, I know, what you're saying, so please, stop explainin', don't tell me 'cause it hurts"

Judo - well, maybe one in women's, but rather not

Karate - our World Champion Banaszczyk is now struggling for getting enough points to qualify through the ranking and she might have problems with qualification through tournament, but if she qualifies, there is so few rivals, she should beat someone to get to the podium

Modern Pentathlon - I didn't believe before Rio and I don't believe by now, so... yes

Rowing - hell YES - W4x for gold and M2x or M4x for something more.

RUgby 7 - we're not as developed as Fiji, so no

Sailing - both RS:X and women's 470 with chances if everything goes well, still one medal would be enough to satisfy us

Shooting - having a World Champion doesn't mean anything, so there is a slight chance, but probably no medal

Skateboarding - ha, ha, ha, good joke

Softball - even better one

Sport Climibing - this one is not even funny after last year's Worlds

Surfing - maybe, if we mean surfing on the internet

Swimming - too many good Polish swimmers lost Olympics in last 12 years for me to believe in a medal or even a single final

Table tennis - you mean the China Open Championships? We do have one Chinese, but I don't think it's enough.

Taekwondo - Kowalczuk with a big chance and Robak with a very little chance.

Tennis - if Puig did it, anyone can do it, so there is a chance, but very little

Triathlon - yes, I saw the triathletes racing in my city, so that the whole traffic was paralysed for half of a day. If we have so many triathletes, why not the Olympic medallist? Simply insane.

Voleyball - the chance for men's as always, maybe it's the time to use it finally? But I want women's quota more, that's my dream.

Water polo - "I have a dream" to see our men's NT on any major competition and women's NT to be founded.

Weightlifting - not yet, but we might get some Tokyo 2020 medals in 2028.

Wrestling - it would be nice if we finally get some more. 1-3 chance with 1 realistic.

 

So, to sum up: I'm an great optimist and I say 22-37. Half of that would be enough.

[Joshi 91]

NZ 

 

1st number ( most probable outcome) 2nd number ( optimistic but very achievable outcome)

 

Athletics 1-3

Boxing 0-1

Canoeing 3-5

Cycling 2-5

Equestrian 0-2

Golf 0-1

Gymnastics 0-1

Rowing 3-7

Rugby 7's 1-2

Sailing 3-4

Surfing 0-1

 

So a probability of 13 but can get a very achievable 15 to 20+ due to the amount of consistent placings between 4th and 8th during World Champs of particular sports in this quadrennial. The NZOC are aiming for 16+. Honourable mentions, Women's Field Hockey team who have infighting and personal grievances with previous coach and other players have completely fallen away and I think should have their funding gone judging by performances. Will be lucky to make playoffs or maybe even qualify. Women's Individual Kata (Karate) Alexandra Anacan possibly the most boring sport to watch but on her day something good could happen for her. Shooting, Chloe Tipple could surprise but it would be even a big surprise if she made the final at least. My darkhorse has to be either Jake or Zane Robertson (Marathon runners). Been living since teenagers in Kenya and their times are mindboggling but injuries have held them back. I really do expect huge things from them this year and next year barring more bad luck.

 

[hoversaBR 281]

hace 15 horas, vinipereira dijo:

 

Pretty much what I think, but I'm not sure about Boxing. 2 in Canoeing and 3 in Skateboarding might be too optimistic. I'd say 1 and 2, respectively, for a total around 17.

 

 

In Canoeing I am very optimistic, it is true, probably 2 medals should be the best scenario, but Isaquias Queiroz has not yet achieved a good result this year and Ana Satila in C1 Slalom is not that regular but still has the ability to win a medal.

 

About Skateboarding I think 3 medals very realistic, because 2 I already consider almost certain (Pedro Barros in the Park and Leticia Bufoni in the Street). I think a third medal could come from Street, especially the men's. At least the results of Brazil have been very good, including in the Women's Park, our weakest category.

 

And Boxing I'm relying on the recent tradition 

[phelps 6,770]

17 minutes ago, hoversaBR said:

 

In Canoeing I am very optimistic, it is true, probably 2 medals should be the best scenario, but Isaquias Queiroz has not yet achieved a good result this year and Ana Satila in C1 Slalom is not that regular but still has the ability to win a medal.

 

About Skateboarding I think 3 medals very realistic, because 2 I already consider almost certain (Pedro Barros in the Park and Leticia Bufoni in the Street). I think a third medal could come from Street, especially the men's. At least the results of Brazil have been very good, including in the Women's Park, our weakest category.

 

And Boxing I'm relying on the recent tradition 

 

I'd really like her to make the podium, but as of the latest results, I think Pamela Rosa is the girl with the highest hopes for Brazil in the women's Street Skateboarding...

I agree on Barros and I think Hoefler has really good chances in the men's Street event...

however, 3 medals for Brazil in Skateboarding should be the minimum to be satisfied with...you can get even more...

[Fly_like_a_don 920]

Here are the  Indian predictions

 

India is one of the more unpredictable nations in sports, that can have a pretty dissapointing to a somewhat decent performance. 

 

Shooting :

Women's 10m Air Rifle : 1-2 

Men's 10m Air Pistol : 1 

Women's 10m Air /25 m pistol : 0-1

Mixed 10m Air Rifle :1-2 

Mixed 10m Air Pistol :1 

 

Boxing :

Men's 48-52 kg : 1

Women's boxing :0-1

*Depends on judging 

 

Weightlifting 

Women's 49kg :1

 

Hockey 

0 - 0

Absolutely no chance 

 

Badminton 

Women's Singles : 0-1

It is strange but could be zero, current form is way too poor. So getting a Chinese /Japanese /Taipei /Thai player in quarters won't help. 

 

Archery 

0 - 0

Not great archers in big televised events. 

 

Athletics 

0- 0

Javelin Throw : PB is 88 odd metres, outside chance with some luck 

 

Archery /Athletics /TT combined : 0-1

 

Table Tennis 

0-0

Men's Team and Mixed Doubles are not that bad, qualifying won't be easy, quarters would be more than good

 

Wrestling 1-2

Men's 65 kg - Bajrang

Women's 50 kg - Vinesh *

* Competing in 53 kg never a medal contender, current asian games champion in 50 kg so should be favorite if comes back to 50kg. Else No

 

 

Total : 7-14

Predicted : 7

Optimistic  : 14

 

Fact : Most of the medal winning events are on the very first day of action at the games (3 /7), including  what is the most important event for India at the 2020 Olympics - The Women's 10m Air Rifle. This is the strongest individual event India has ever had from the last 1 year or so and interestingly this is the 1st medal event of games. Apurvi Chandela has not gone beyond 4th position in any event in last 1.5 years, 2 titles at world cup this year. Anjum Moudgil is a air rifle mixed sepcialist i should say. She's unbeatable in new format with Divynash this year. She was a 50m3P specialist earlier too. 

   On the first day we even have weightlifting and 10m air pistol men where Saurabh Chaudhary is unbeaten for a year in the event. 

   

 

 

 

If things go wrong on 1st day, no more than 3 medals at Tokyo 2020. 

 

 

 

 

 

[uk12points 434]

Great Britain have been set a target of winning 68 medals in Tokyo, bettering the Rio 2016 total of 67. Whilst it is unlikely that Britain will maintain their second position in the medal table, it is possible for Britain to better their medal count from Rio. I was surprised when my individual calculations came back with an average of 72 medals, however what is always important to remember when talking about GB's medal prospects is that everything builds up to one moment. We saw in PyeongChang how Britain's top secret technology won 3 medals in Skeleton, despite limited form coming into the games. More summer sports have the engineering, research and design structures in place that set GB apart from the rest of the world at the Olympic Games, including Cycling, Rowing and Canoeing. I'm honestly not sure how it's gonna go, we will either shock the world and have another amazing games or return to more realistic Beijing medal standards (52), sparking a rethink in the whole elite performance sport sector. 

 

Archery (1-2)

Athletics (4-8)

Badminton (1-2)

Boxing (3-7)

Canoe (3-5)

Cycling (7-14)

Diving (2-4)

Equestrian (3-5)

Fencing (0-1)

Hockey (1-2)

Golf (0-1)

Gymnastics (2-5)

Judo (0-2)

Modern Pentathlon (1-2)

Rowing (3-6)

Rugby Sevens (0-2)

Sailing (3-6)

Shooting (1-2)

Swimming (5-11)

Taekwondo (2-4)

Tennis (0-2)

Triathlon (3-4)

 

LOW ESTIMATE: 47

HIGH ESTIMATE: 97

AVERAGE: 72

 

[IoNuTzZ 289]

Archery - no way, maybe we can qualify with one athlete

Artistic Swimming - no chance

Athletics - Maybe in women’s long jump (Marincu or Rotaru)

Badminton - no chance

Baseball - not a single chance

Basketball - no chance

Basketball 3x3 - well we have a chance

Beach Volleyball - No chance

Boxing - maybe 1 medal but it’s unlikely

Canoe Slalom - NO

Canoe Sprint - 1 medal (Chirila/Mihalachi

Cycling - BMX - NO
Cycling - MTB - NO
Cycling - Road - well, Grosu have nice results but that’s all (maybe top 20)

Cycling - Track - NO

Diving - maybe we can qualify one athlete

Fencing - 1-3 medals, women’s epee team or individual (Popescu, Udrea) or men’s sabre team

Field hockey - NO

Golf - NO chance

Gymnastics - Artistic - well it’s hard to predict, we have a chance if women’s team qualify, Iordache is back and with Golgota and our juniors Sfiringu and Stanciulescu we can make it. If we qualify i think we can win at least 1 medal if not I hope Iordache to have a great comeback.

Gymnastics - Rhytmic - we have 3 good athletes but no chance for a medal

Gymnastics - Trampoline - nope

Handball - 1 medal, women’s team with Neagu, Buceschi, Pintea, Dumanska and Dedu in a good shape everything is possible

Judo - well, maybe one medal (Chitu or Stefan maybe Ungureanu)

Karate - No chance

Modern Pentathlon - Nope

Rowing - hell YEAH - maybe 3-4 medals, Rowing is the best sport for us

Sailing - Nope

Shooting - 1 medal, Laura Coman has a big chance

Skateboarding - well i don’t think so

Softball - Nope

Sport Climibing - Nope again

Surfing - Well, no...

Swimming - 1 medal, Robert Glinta

Table tennis - Maybe Szocs, Samara, Dodean in women’s team but it’s very hard

Taekwondo - Nope

Tennis - 1-2 medals, of course Halep or doubles (Niculescu/Begu, Buzarnescu/Olaru) or mixed doubles 

Triathlon - Maybe we can qualify one athlete

Voleyball - we won the Silver League in both gender but that’s all

Water polo - I don’t think we can even qualify

Weightlifting - 1-2 medals, Andries, Lepsa or Toma can win something

Wrestling - Well last year Vuc finished second at Worlds so i think we have a chance

[EselTheDonkey 651]

8 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

45 medals should be the minimum, i hope for 50.

- Archery: I would say 0-2 (women's team + women's individual)

- Athletics: How do you get 7 medals as maximum?

2 x men's javelin, men's discus, men's high jump, men's 20 km race walking, men's decathlon, women's 1500 m, women's 5000 m, women's 100 m hurdles, women's 4 x 100 m relay, women's long jump, women's triple jump, women's shot put, women's discus throw, women's heptathlon, women's javelin throw

- Boxing: How do you get 2 medals as maximum?

Apetz, Wahner + at least 2 medal chances on the men's side

- Equestrian: How do you get 6 as maximum?

2 x eventing, 3 x dressage, 2 x jumping

- Fencing: How do you get 3 as maximum?

Men's sabre, men's sabre team, women's foil

- Golf: I would say 0-0 ...

- Rowing: I would say 2-6 or 2-7 (men's quadruple sculls, women's quadruple sculls, men's eight, men's single sculls, men's lightweight double sculls, men's four, women's double sculls)

- Shooting: I would say 1-5 or 1-6 (2 x men's rapid fire pistol, men's trap, women's 50 m 3 positions, 1-2 x women's 25 m pistol + mixed events ...)

- Swimming: I would say 1-7 or 1-8 (men's 400 m, men's 800 m, men's 1500 m, men's 10 km open water, men's 200 IM, men's 200 breast, men's 100 fly, women's 200 fly + maybe women's 1500 free or women's 10 km open water)

- Tennis: I would say 1-3 or 1-4 (Zverev (it is best of 3 after all), Kerber, mixed doubles, women's doubles (Kerber + Görges) + maybe men's doubles ...)

- What about gymnastics? Women's uneven bars, women's balance beam ...

 

 

 

I indeed missed Gymnastics in my list. When going through the different sports I simply overlooked it. I do think one or two medals are possible.

 

I added Golf because I generally think that everything is possible in Golf.

 

And IMO it's highly doubtful that Zverev will even play at the Olympics, much less win a medal.

 

In general, I added the number of medals that are IMO realistically possible. Sure, it could be more in some events, but that seems highly unlikely to me. German Shooters were way too bad so far in qualification to add more medal chances.

[NMQ 222]

 

The ones who should have a medal as a main and realistic goal: Paula Pareto (judo -48), Lange/Carranza (Nacra 17), both hockey teams.

 

The ones who can dream with some hopes of it (a couple not yet qualified): Federico Gil (skeet), Lucas Guzmán (TKD -58), Delfina Pignatiello (swimming, 1500 free), Rugby 7 men, 

 

Maybe if the planets align (again, if qualified): basketball and volleyball men, tennis men (?), surf men (??), football men (???), another saling boat, boxing women and BMX men. 

 

Overall, it´s always between 3-6.