How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2016?

[monte88 17]

POLAND -  13 medals

Archery 0-1 no way

Athletics: 3-6 (Małachowski, Włodarczyk, Fajdek and Kszczot, Lićwinko, Urbanek)

Badminton 0-1 maybe Kostiuczyk/Mateusiak

Boxing: 0-1 no way

Canoeing: 2-3 (K4-500m, K1-200m and K2-500 m W)

Cycling (BMX, Road, Mountain Bike,Track): 1-2 (Włoszczowska and Majka)

Equestrian: 0-1 no way

Fencing: 0-1 maybe Women Sabre Team

Gymnastics 0-1 now way

Handball 0-1 maybe

Judo: 0-1 maybe Kłys

Modern Pentathlon: 0-1 maybe Nowacka

Rowing: 1-2 (Doble Sculls W and  Quadruple sculls W)

Sailing: 1-2 (RS;X M and W)

Shooting: 1-2 (Bogacka and ... Bogacka)

Swimming: 1-2 (Kawęcki and Czerniak)

Table tennis 0-1 maybe Team M

Taekwondo: 0-1 maybe Robak

Tennis: 0-1 maybe Radwańska/Kubot

Triathlon 0-1 no way

Volleyball 1-2 (Team M and Fijałek/Prudel)

Weightlifting 1-2 (A. Zieliński and Michalski) 

Wrestling 1-2 (Gadzhiev and Matkowska)

[ahjfcshfghb 285]

Athletics- 3-5 (men's javelin, Spotakova, Hejnova, possibly Maslak or Drahotova, others possible but unlikely)

Badminton- not going to happen

Canoe Slalom- 2-3 (Kudejova, Prskavec, probably one other)

Canoe Sprint- 2-3 (Fuksa, 4-kayak, possibly 2-canoe)

Cycling- not going to happen, road or track

Mountain Biking- 1 (Kulhavy, would be nice to see Nash but probably not)

Fencing- very unlikely Choupentich can pull it off

Gymnastics- not going to happen

Judo- 1 (Krpalek, others unlikely)

Modern pentathlon- 1-2 (Svoboda, Kuf maybe)

Rowing- 1-2 (Synek, Knapkova)

Sailing- very unlikely (Fenclova is good but I don't think she will medal)

Shooting- 0-2 (Kostelecky/Sykorova/Mazurova could pull it off, but I honestly think even one medal would be an achievement)

Swimming- very unlikely, synchronized also

Table tennis- not going to happen

Tennis- 1-2 (Hlavackova/Hradecka, possibly Kvitova or other doubles pair)

Triathlon/Volleyball/Wrestling/Weightlifting- not going to happen.

It's a pretty optimistic list, I guess.

 

 

[heywoodu 13,550]

@OlympicsFan @LowerSaxony @T&Fwatch Am I reading this right? Does this say the German federations have 86 medals as their target? 

 

Quote

86 Medaillen, darunter 28 aus Gold, hatten die Fachverbände dem Deutschen Olympischen Sportbund als Zielvorgabe avisiert.

http://www.zeit.de/news/2016-08/04/olympia-turner-hambuechen-hasst-medaillenzaehlerei-04113005

 

Surely that must be a mistake in my translation, right? 

 

 

Edit: Ah wait, that was the goal for London 2012, but this time the goal is to equal London 2012? That's a bit more realistic than 86 medals I guess  

Edited August 4, 2016 by heywoodu

[OlympicsFan 782]

vor einer Stunde schrieb heywoodu:

@OlympicsFan @LowerSaxony @T&Fwatch Am I reading this right? Does this say the German federations have 86 medals as their target? 

 

http://www.zeit.de/news/2016-08/04/olympia-turner-hambuechen-hasst-medaillenzaehlerei-04113005

 

Surely that must be a mistake in my translation, right? 

 

 

Edit: Ah wait, that was the goal for London 2012, but this time the goal is to equal London 2012? That's a bit more realistic than 86 medals I guess  

It wasnt really the goal. At the beginning of each olympic period the federations get their funding according to the number of medals they won at the last olympics and then they make an "agreement" with DOSB about the number of medals they are "supposed" to win at the next olympic games with the money they get. 86 medals wouldve been the "goal" if all federations wouldve won the maximum number of medals, but no one in Germany expected that we could/would win 86 medals.

This time our goal is to win at least as many medals as in 2012, so at least 44 medals.

 

https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/Veranstaltungen/Olympisch_Spiele_2016/Ziele_Rio_2016_25_04_2016.pdf

https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/DOSB_Start/olympia/praesentation_sotschi_rio_2.pdf

 

By looking at the second link, you can see that DOSB expected 27-42 medals in Sochi, but no one would say that the goal was to win 42 medals. Thats just the number of medals that we couldve won in a perfect case.

For the Rio olympics our "goal" is to win 42-71 medals (link 2, page 7). You could say that 71 is the number of medal contenders, predicted 4 years before the start of the games.

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by OlympicsFan

[T&Fwatch 6]

Summarised very well from OlympicsFan, there were huge discussions about non realistic expectations and how ridiculous they were. So now they don't say exactly numbers anymore. 

[De_Gambassi 896]

Some of the projections are really over the top (even in their lower end)

 

Judo: 3-4

Cannoeing: 8 (including 2 in slalom)

...

 

And a few are really on the lower side

 

Athletics: 4-6

 

Maybe, it made sense in 2012, don't know, But in 2016, it doesn't appear to be the case.

[heywoodu 13,550]

35 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

It wasnt really the goal. At the beginning of each olympic period the federations get their funding according to the number of medals they won at the last olympics and then they make an "agreement" with DOSB about the number of medals they are "supposed" to win at the next olympic games with the money they get. 86 medals wouldve been the "goal" if all federations wouldve won the maximum number of medals, but no one in Germany expected that we could/would win 86 medals.

This time our goal is to win at least as many medals as in 2012, so at least 44 medals.

 

https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/Veranstaltungen/Olympisch_Spiele_2016/Ziele_Rio_2016_25_04_2016.pdf

https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/DOSB_Start/olympia/praesentation_sotschi_rio_2.pdf

 

By looking at the second link, you can see that DOSB expected 27-42 medals in Sochi, but no one would say that the goal was to win 42 medals. Thats just the number of medals that we couldve won in a perfect case.

For the Rio olympics our "goal" is to win 42-71 medals (link 2, page 7). You could say that 71 is the number of medal contenders, predicted 4 years before the start of the games.

 

Thanks for the explanation, that makes sense. 

[heywoodu 13,550]

1 minute ago, De_Gambassi said:

Some of the projections are really over the top (even in their lower end)

 

Judo: 3-4

Cannoeing: 8 (including 2 in slalom)

...

 

And a few are really on the lower side

 

Athletics: 4-6

 

Maybe, it made sense in 2012, don't know, But in 2016, it doesn't appear to be the case.

You mean for Germany, right? Yeah, 6 athletics medals as the maximum when everything goes perfect is...let's just say, quite a low maximum  

[De_Gambassi 896]

Juste maintenant , heywoodu a déclaré:

You mean for Germany, right? Yeah, 6 athletics medals as the maximum when everything goes perfect is...let's just say, quite a low maximum  

 

Yes, Germany (from the DOSB file)

 

Right now a 8-10 bracket could be seen as legit.

[T&Fwatch 6]

vor 9 Minuten schrieb heywoodu:

You mean for Germany, right? Yeah, 6 athletics medals as the maximum when everything goes perfect is...let's just say, quite a low maximum  

If everything works perfectly (with all luck on German side) I see these German medalists in athletics:

- 4x100w

- 4x100m

- 100H Roleder

- 3000SC Krause

- LJw Moguenara

- HJw Jungfleisch 

- PVm Holzdeppe 

- SPm Storl

- SPw Schwanitz

- Discus m (2×) Harting

- Discus w Fischer 

- Javelin m Roehler

- Javelin w Hussong 

- Decathlon Abele

 

I think this would be absolutely best case scenario. 

Edited August 4, 2016 by T&Fwatch