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NMQ

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Posts posted by NMQ

  1. 22 hours ago, NMQ said:

    Polls say slightly difference in favour of Milei. It's a closed call, many voters in the middle with no clear preference. I think the last few weeks were good for Milei because the crazy part of his side and proposals were a bit tuned down, and he got the support from Macri which gave him structure and a sense of "control" as in a kind of coalition. Still most people dislike him, but Massa as well.

    We'll see what prevails, if the desire of change or the fear of what that change could be. I lean to Milei 55-45.

     

    I won't vote neither, though :p

    I was right about the difference, should have bet on it :p

     

    The swing voters who voted Peronism/kirchnerism 4 years ago and Macri 8 years ago and Kirchner before that now opted for change over fear. Hope this guy can turn the economy up, the political and social side will be a mess no matter what.

  2. 7 hours ago, George_D said:

    @konig, @LDOG opinions for the 2nd round tomorrow?

    Polls say slightly difference in favour of Milei. It's a closed call, many voters in the middle with no clear preference. I think the last few weeks were good for Milei because the crazy part of his side and proposals were a bit tuned down, and he got the support from Macri which gave him structure and a sense of "control" as in a kind of coalition. Still most people dislike him, but Massa as well.

    We'll see what prevails, if the desire of change or the fear of what that change could be. I lean to Milei 55-45.

     

    I won't vote neither, though :p

  3. En general todo más o menos dentro de la lógica al final, con algo más de suerte capaz llegábamos al 20 en oros pero volviendo al 7° puesto normal en el medallero.

     

    Pensando en París lo mismo de siempre: habrá que seguir confiando en los equipos, prenderle una vela al físico del Maligno Torres, que le sople buen viento al Nacra y después que esté inspirado algún tenista o que Fede Gil y Vernice tengan el torneo de su vida. El resto a lo clasificar y lo que se pueda.

  4. 1 hour ago, Olympian1010 said:

    Just caught a replay of the men's wakeboard final...

     

    I think it, along with the women's finals, are my favorite events at the Games so far. Broadcast production created a good product, venue announcer kept the energy high, athletes played to the crowd and brought some great tricks. It was just really fun to watch. I'll honestly be a bit sad if water ski/wakeboard is dropped from the program in 2027 :(

    I like it the event and it seems we are good in it which is cool, but why so much delay with the results? Our two first gold medals were ages waiting while checking their cell phones :p

  5. 19 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

    I don't agree on this perspective. Argentina is in a pretty bad situation. If you want to have a higher standard of living, you have to take risks. Argentina is far away from pretty much every major market and of course that hurts them, but the same applies to Chile and they have a much higher GDP per capita. Argentina probably has a way too big population (The goal should be to reduce the population to 20 million people at most). I think Argentina has a lot of potential as an energy exporter (to Europe) (wind power -> hydrogen -> fertilizer etc., lithium). Maybe south american countries can form something like a "lithium OPEC". Maybe countries like Australia or Norway could be role models for Argentina. Argentina has roughly the same population size as Canada/Saudi Arabia, but not the abundance of natural resources of those countries. At the beginning of the 20th century Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world (8th most prosperous country in the world). The argentinian GDP per capita was way higher than the italian, japanese or brazilian GDP per capita. Nowadays agriculture isn't as important anymore, so clearly Argentina has to find a new business model. If you want to know what you have to do going forward, you first have to understand how you got where you are right now.

     

    Some interesting quotes i found:

    "Canada and Argentina were once equals, but bad decision by bad decision, Argentina declined."

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canada-argentina-economic-output/

    "Since 1950, Argentina has spent 33% of the time in recession, second in the world behind the Democratic Republic of Congo."

    https://santandertrade.com/en/portal/analyse-markets/argentina/economic-political-outline

     

    Some (potentially) insightful reads:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-05/argentina-is-dealing-with-100-per-cent-inflation-heres-how/102930048

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/argentinas-lithium-pipeline-promises-white-gold-boom-chile-tightens-control-2023-04-24/

    https://time.com/6275197/south-america-lithium-opec/

    https://www.cpreview.org/blog/2023/9/the-rise-of-a-lithium-opec-should-latin-america-follow-in-the-footsteps-of-the-gulf-states

    https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/will-argentina-become-a-relevant-gas-exporter/

    https://www.ft.com/content/a3982bb1-75cb-4988-8677-07499337fbda

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/argentinas-vaca-muerta-shale-boom-is-running-out-road-2022-12-27/

    https://www.agora-strategy.com/post/the-geostrategic-importance-of-argentina-and-brazil-as-partners-for-europe-1

    https://hir.harvard.edu/argentinas-economic-downfall-which-party-will-save-the-citizens/

    https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/10/19/can-argentinas-next-president-fix-the-economy-dont-count-on-it

    https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/753938/EPRS_BRI(2023)753938_EN.pdf

    https://www.ft.com/content/778193e4-44d8-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0

    https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication Files/LAER Introduction to Argentine Exceptionalism_3c49e7ee-4f31-49a0-ba21-6e2b726cd7c5.pdf

    https://archive.nytimes.com/economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/what-happened-to-argentina/

    https://manifold.bfi.uchicago.edu/read/case-of-argentina/section/9905ef24-8c94-42ad-adf7-068efb4d9afb

    https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/pou.htm

    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19924/w19924.pdf

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/

     

    We could be like Canada or Australia, but instead of a british colony we were filled with spanish and italians and here we are :p

     

    Seriously, yes, the country's economy has been a mess for the last 80 years as we still depend on agro exportations like a century ago while the world has moved on. And we had every type of government. Leftist, right and center peronists, weak non peronists center right and center left, military coups from every corner, and all helped to build this mess. So, in theory, a far right libertarian could be a good gamble as we have nothing to lose, right?

     

    The little problem is the man is a madman sorrounded by freaks, that even if his economic ideas have some grounds, are almost impossible to follow given the state of power (and also the Constitution!), and let's not start with the social and cultural ideas and projects like breaking ties with "communist" states like Brazil (?) and also the Vatican (!), free posession of guns, to sell organs freely and even children :wacko: (there's no way they can be approved, though, but just that people can think about it is a bit scary).

     

    We may be in a constant economic crisis that makes the country weaker and weaker in every aspect (except football :p), but a lot of people still value the social standards of living, like public access to education or health, conservative issues like family and catholic values, and it seems we are still not desperate enough to give the keys to a Trump style guy who wants to turn everything upside down. But we'll see.

  6. 2 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

    As an outsider i hope that Milei will win.

    1) I really want to see what happens when someone like him becomes the head of state. Will he be able to follow up on his promises?

    2) Argentina seems to be in a situation where they don't have too much to lose. Electing the same politicians over and over again probably won't change anything for the better.

    1) If that scenario happens let's hope that's the case, because a lot of his ideas beyond the economic ones are scary af...

     

    2) Don't know if it works the same in english, but there's a say in spanish a bit like "better a bad one known that a good one to know". This is a pretty conservative country and all that Massa represents, a guy that can switch to whatever suits him better without morals but can unite powers behind him and give some kind of stability, works in his favour in this uncertain scenario of crisis and fear.

     

    There are three weeks left and that is a lifetime in this country, though, so everything could happen.

     

    Personally, I always vote for the most center/progressive non peronist candidate (and I always lose, ha). In the 2015 runoff between the peronist Scioli and the center right oppositor Macri, I voted neither. I despise Massa, so I may repeat, but if the numbers are close i may change because the prospect of a Milei presidency (and mostly the people around him) scare me way more.

  7. 41 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

    Ridiculous nonsense. Good luck to teams having to travel between CONTINENTS after group stage when there's literally 4-5 days before the knockout phase. Jet lag will kill them. Expect a complete shitshow in that tournament.

    It's only the first match for Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, then all the matches are played between Spain, Portugal and Morocco. Not that big of a mess. 

     

    Infantino is pleasing everyone, USA in 2026, Europe in 2030, South America gets a symbolic host too, and likely Saudi Arabia in 2034. Everybody happy.

  8. 1 hour ago, Monzanator said:

    @Henry_LeonFunny how :BOL never seems to be using that elevation advantage anymore (except 1994 WC quals). Or did they ban them from playing in La Paz too often? :mumble:

    They always play in La Paz, but the level of players is worse every year, the coach selection is bad, the local tournament stopped due to a corruption scandal and the rest of the teams have been better at figuring out how to not suffer that much there. They will probably beat some teams though, but the chances of qualifying are slim to none.

     

    IMO Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia and Ecuador will easily take the top 5 as they have much more quality than the rest. Then Chile, Paraguay, Perú and Venezuela will fight for the sixth spot and the playoff spot.

  9. 3 hours ago, LDOG said:

    We have the best entry time in W 800, 1500 and 4th best in 400? I'm hopeful now.

    And #2 in men's 100 BK. Last year Hein didn't have a great tournament, though. She has competed a lot too this year and she'll have also junior south american and Pan Ams, so let's hope she is at her best here.

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