Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026 Qualification Simulation Road to Milano Cortina 2026

[evil betty 54]

A few additions to above list:

 athlete remains ineligible so far, and cannot be confirmed qualified until likely January anyway based on qualification criteria

 qualified an alpine skiier.

 

 has an american competing in freestyle (SS,HP,BA), seems like a long shot but possible

 has a male alpine skiier who is close to qualifying, however who knows if they will be able to go anyway

 

 ,  ,  ,  ,  , all have reasonable shots to qualify in cross-country skiiing with the modified WC rules for the fall session.

 

 athlete switched to  but was denied release, so has to sit out for a year to continue competing. It remains possible, but very unlikely Tchibozo will compete in the Olympics for Benin.

Edited October 1 by evil betty
correction

[evil betty 54]

On 10/1/2025 at 7:57 AM, evil betty said:

 

 

 athlete switched to  but was denied release, so has to sit out for a year to continue competing. It remains possible, but very unlikely Tchibozo will compete in the Olympics for Benin.

Well so much for "very unlikely", the latest FIS list has him as eligible for the Olympics representing  , so one new Winter Olympic nation today I guess.

[Topicmaster1010 5,225]

Here's a minor update of the quota projections before short track qualifying begins next week. Some new nations have joined the list and there's been some changes in the alpine skiing, figure skating and ski jumping quotas along with some athletes changing nationalities. Also fixed some mistakes.

 

Africa (7 nations)

 

 Benin: 1 (NEW)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Eritrea: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Guinea-Bissau: 1 (NEW)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Kenya: 1 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 Madagascar: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 Morocco: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Nigeria: 1 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 South Africa: 3 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 1)

 

Americas (12 nations)

 

 Argentina: 8 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Luge - 1)

 Bolivia: 1 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Brazil: 16 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 1, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 2)

 Canada: 204 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 11, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 14, Cross-Country Skiing - 12, Curling - 11, Figure Skating - 12, Freestyle Skiing - 32, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 6, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 2, Ski Jumping - 4, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 13)

 Chile: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 1)

 Colombia: 2 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Skeleton - 1)

 Haiti: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Jamaica: 1 (-1)

(Bobsleigh - 1)

 Mexico: 5 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 1)

 Puerto Rico: 1 (0)

(Skeleton - 1)

 Trinidad and Tobago: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 United States: 218 (-5)

(Alpine Skiing - 17, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 14, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 6, Figure Skating - 16, Freestyle Skiing - 32, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 4, Skeleton - 4, Ski Jumping - 6, Snowboarding - 23, Speed Skating - 11)

 

 Uruguay: 1 (NEW)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 

Asia (18 nations)

 

 China: 117 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 3, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 5, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 24, Luge - 6, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 5, Ski Jumping - 4, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 16, Speed Skating - 14)

 Hong Kong: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Short Track - 1)

 India: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Iran: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

 Japan: 125 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Curling - 7, Figure Skating - 12, Freestyle Skiing - 20, Ice Hockey - 23, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 9, Ski Jumping - 8, Snowboarding - 20, Speed Skating - 13)

 Kazakhstan: 42 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 12, Nordic Combined - 1, Short Track - 8, Ski Jumping - 2, Speed Skating - 4)

 Kyrgyzstan: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Lebanon: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Malaysia: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Mongolia: 2 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

 Philippines: 2 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 Saudi Arabia: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Singapore: 1 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1)

 South Korea: 62 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 6, Luge - 1, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 11, Speed Skating - 11)

 Taiwan: 6 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Figure Skating, Skeleton - 1, Speed Skating - 1)

 Thailand: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 United Arab Emirates: 2 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 Uzbekistan: 3 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2)

 

Europe (47 nations)

 

 Albania: 4 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 4)

 Andorra: 7 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Cross-Country Skiing - 3)

 Armenia: 5 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

 Austria: 113 (+4)

(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 9, Bobsleigh - 12, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 13, Luge - 11, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 4, Ski Jumping - 8, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 17, Speed Skating - 2)

 Azerbaijan: 1 (0)

(Figure Skating - 1)

 Belgium: 32 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 5, Skeleton - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 1, Snowboarding - 1, Speed Skating - 7)

 Bosnia and Herzegovina: 5 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Luge - 1)

 Bulgaria: 19 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Ski Jumping - 1, Snowboarding - 3)

 Croatia: 14 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 6, Biathlon - 3, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Short Track - 2)

 Cyprus: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 Czech Republic: 121 (-2)

(Alpine Skiing - 5, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Ice Hockey - 48, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 4, Snowboarding - 9, Speed Skating - 4)

 Denmark: 40 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 2, Bobsleigh - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1, Curling - 5, Ice Hockey - 25, Skeleton - 2, Speed Skating - 2)

 Estonia: 32 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Curling - 2, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 2, Nordic Combined - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 2, Snowboarding - 1, Speed Skating - 1)

 Finland: 102 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 5, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Figure Skating - 5, Freestyle Skiing - 8, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 2, Ski Jumping - 5, Snowboarding - 2)

 France: 152 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 19, Biathlon - 12, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 15, Figure Skating - 9, Freestyle Skiing - 18, Ice Hockey - 48, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 3, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 6, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 10, Speed Skating - 3)

 Georgia: 8 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 6)

 Germany: 190 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 12, Biathlon - 11, Bobsleigh - 18, Cross-Country Skiing - 14, Curling - 5, Figure Skating - 6, Freestyle Skiing - 11, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 12, Nordic Combined - 3, Short Track - 1, Skeleton - 6, Ski Jumping - 8, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 19, Speed Skating - 13)

 Great Britain: 56 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 1, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 8, Freestyle Skiing - 7, Short Track - 3, Skeleton - 5, Snowboarding - 5)

 Greece: 5 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3)

 Hungary: 16 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Figure Skating - 2, Short Track - 5, Snowboarding - 2, Speed Skating - 1)

 Iceland: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

 Ireland: 8 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 2, Luge - 1, Short Track - 1)

 Israel: 4 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Figure Skating - 1, Skeleton - 1)

 Italy: 191 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 9, Freestyle Skiing - 10, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 10, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 7, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 15, Speed Skating - 10)

 Kosovo: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 Latvia: 68 (-2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 9, Cross-Country Skiing - 6, Figure Skating - 2, Ice Hockey - 25, Luge - 11, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 3)

 Liechtenstein: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

 Lithuania: 17 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 4, Figure Skating - 3)

 Luxembourg: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2)

 Malta: 1 (0)

(Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Moldova: 4 (0)

(Biathlon - 4)

 Monaco: 5 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Bobsleigh - 4)

 Montenegro: 2 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Netherlands: 43 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 4, Figure Skating - 2, Freestyle Skiing - 1, Nordic Combined - 1, Short Track - 10, Skeleton - 1, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 18)

 North Macedonia: 3 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Norway: 90 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 18, Biathlon - 11, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 11, Freestyle Skiing - 5, Nordic Combined - 3, Ski Jumping - 7, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 12)

 Poland: 60 (+1)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 8, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 7, Figure Skating - 4, Luge - 6, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 7, Ski Jumping - 6, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 4, Speed Skating - 9)

 Portugal: 3 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 1)

 Romania: 34 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 6, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Luge - 8, Ski Jumping - 4, Snowboarding - 2)

 Serbia: 4 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2)

 Slovakia: 53 (+3)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Biathlon - 6, Bobsleigh - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 1, Ice Hockey - 25, Luge - 6, Ski Jumping - 2, Ski Mountaineering - 3, Snowboarding - 1)

 Slovenia: 41 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 10, Biathlon - 9, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Nordic Combined - 2, Ski Jumping - 7, Snowboarding - 5)

 Spain: 19 (+2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Bobsleigh - 1, Cross-Country Skiing - 3, Figure Skating - 5, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 4)

 Sweden: 116 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 10, Biathlon - 12, Cross-Country Skiing - 16, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 15, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 2, Ski Jumping, Snowboarding - 1)

 Switzerland: 178 (-2)

(Alpine Skiing - 22, Biathlon - 10, Bobsleigh - 16, Cross-Country Skiing - 13, Curling - 10, Figure Skating - 3, Freestyle Skiing - 21, Ice Hockey - 48, Luge - 1, Nordic Combined - 2, Skeleton - 3, Ski Jumping - 4, Ski Mountaineering - 4, Snowboarding - 18, Speed Skating - 3)

 Türkiye: 7 (0)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Cross-Country Skiing - 2, Short Track - 1, Ski Jumping - 2)

 Ukraine: 44 (-2)

(Alpine Skiing - 2, Biathlon - 10, Cross-Country Skiing - 6, Figure Skating - 1, Freestyle Skiing - 8, Luge - 8, Nordic Combined - 2, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Jumping - 2, Snowboarding - 2)

 

Oceania (3 nations)

 

 Australia: 57 (+4)

(Alpine Skiing - 3, Biathlon - 1, Bobsleigh - 8, Cross-Country Skiing - 8, Curling - 2, Figure Skating - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 13, Luge - 1, Short Track - 2, Skeleton - 1, Ski Mountaineering - 2, Snowboarding - 12)

 New Zealand: 20 (-1)

(Alpine Skiing - 4, Freestyle Skiing - 10, Snowboarding - 5, Speed Skating - 1)

 Vanuatu: 1 (0)

(Freestyle Skiing - 1)

 

Other (1 nation)

 

 Individual Neutral Athletes: 17 (-6)

(Figure Skating - 3, Short Track - 2, Ski Mountaineering - 1, Speed Skating - 11)

Edited October 5 by Topicmaster1010

[rafalgorka 1,802]

@Topicmaster1010 

[intoronto 6,300]

On 9/30/2025 at 10:13 PM, intoronto said:

An update I made in June to the list of countries that could still qualify

 

Now qualified (as per the IF)

 

 (Freestyle skiing)

 (Alpine skiing)

(Alpine skiing)

 

Should qualify:

 

Should easily qualify in biathlon  

 - Should qualify in alpine skiing 

 

These countries are just outside qualification position and need better results to qualify
 - Alpine skiing

 - Alpine skiing ( and could qualify in Bobsleigh as well)

 - Alpine skiing 

 - Skeleton 

 - Skeleton 

 - Women's monobob - with the field size at worlds really low, its possible one of their athletes sneaks in. 

 

 

Unlikely to qualify but have athletes trying

 - Alpine skiing

 - Alpine skiing, name is now switched to under Bhutan. 

 - Alpine skiing 

 - Skeleton / alpine skiing 

 - Figure skating

 - Alpine skiing

 - Alpine skiing

 - Alpine skiing

 - Alpine skiing 

 - Alpine skiing 

 unsure if their athlete from Beijing will attempt qualification again; they also now have a snowboarder in the women's halfpipe who isn't that far off.

 

 

Unknowns:

 

 - their only athlete with potential to qualify came back and DNF's his only race at the AWG, no race before (from 2022) or since then. Should be able to qualify if he tries to 

 - Their monobob athlete from Beijing 2022 qualification cycle will try again.

 - Have an alpine skier from Switzerland? trying to qualify but has 0 results so far

- lost their only athlete who has qualified; unsure if any others will try to qualify.

 - lost the only athlete who has qualified; unsure if any others will try to qualify.

 

Unlikely to qualify in any sport:

 - Figure skating Pairs failed to qualify

 

Countries which competed in Beijing but won't in Milan-Cortina

 - athlete has retired.

 

Moving  up into unlikely to qualify (likely will) as their athlete from the last two games will be competing in Dubai tomorrow. Also a 46 year old skier from  will be competing, so adding them to the list. 

[evil betty 54]

Henry Rivers of  had a good result today in Dubai. I think good enough to qualify for the olympics but have to wait for FIS points to be posted.

[Kerkun 51]

7 hours ago, evil betty said:

Henry Rivers of  had a good result today in Dubai. I think good enough to qualify for the olympics but have to wait for FIS points to be posted.

FIS points are up and he's through. Also in Dubai,  Rafael Mini is very close to secure the first qualification for his country for these Games. He needs <= 120.59 FIS points tomorrow.

[evil betty 54]

On 11/4/2025 at 2:58 PM, Kerkun said:

FIS points are up and he's through. Also in Dubai,  Rafael Mini is very close to secure the first qualification for his country for these Games. He needs <= 120.59 FIS points tomorrow.

Just missed. now just needs 126.71 tommorow. Or Elia Stacchini only needs 144.8 I think. Or Matteo Giannini needs 111.22. At least one of them will surely make it.

[evil betty 54]

so two new nations;  and  did enough in Dubai to earn quotas.